March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record
March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
I'll have a new post by Friday.
Jeff Masters
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and the relevance to this weather blog is?
April 24, 2012
April 24, 2012
ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE TEMPLATE OUTLINED ABOVE
ARE EXPECTED AS THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY STAGNANT...WHILE
THE PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERALLY ONE OF RIDGING. ECMWF HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
REGION OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS OF MAINTAINING THE
STATUS QUO. MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES...WHICH WERE ALREADY
SMALL...HAVE BEEN EXPUNGED FROM THE FORECAST.
Morning Nigel, This is that storm in the WPAC
Good morning pedley...thanks much
Absolutely none
Maybe it's time to hold hands and dance a Merry Minuet.
On a more weathery note, it is finally warm again in GA.
I was starting to get cold.
Highs in the 80s for the foreseeable future.
Ice - Surface melting revealed by the North Pole Environmental Observatory
Sea Ice | North Pole Observations | Glaciers | Snow Cover
Since 2002, the multi-agency USA-Japan joint project entitled "North Pole Environmental Observatory" (NPEO) has deployed Web Cameras along with instruments that monitor air, ice and ocean conditions. These Web Cams provide an otherwise unobtainable view of sea ice conditions throughout the Arctic summer.
The summers observed by the North Pole Web Cams were very different, as seen in the table below. A brief commentary for each observation year follows the table. You can also see the ice conditions animated in YouTube videos.
Widespread melt pond coverage was not observed
Melt pond coverage...This IS the North Pole folks..Anyone doubting that the Earth is getting warmer needs to check the latest findings...Soon enough there will be irrefutable evidence that mankind has a part in it. To what extent we contributed to it with a certain degree of accuracy will be no easy task.
The CMC is on board
I'll see if I can field this one for you.
We had been, as I understand it, heading toward another ice some time far into the future. Tens/hundreds of thousands years from now.
What we seem to have done is created a short term hot spell. We've screwed ourselves to a moderate degree by trapping enough heat to increase average global temperature, storm strength, rain intensity, drought intensity and a few other things that will be butt kickers. We're in the process of melting out glaciers which will rob hundreds of millions of their water supplies. We're increasing the height of the oceans which is going to flood coastal areas. We're probably going to lose some of our most productive agricultural land and have to make do with low quality rocky replacement areas.
And that's if we stop burning fossil fuels really, really soon. Like this afternoon.
Since we won't stop burning fossil fuels rapidly we'll further screw things up, making hot times hotter, wet times wetter and dry times dryer. The planet will become a less enjoyable place to live.
Now, I think by 2050 we will have gotten the message and either have cut our fossil fuel to close to zero or will be there soon after. The question remains as to how bad things will get at the peak. Could be very nasty.
Then, about 40 years of so after we quit fossil fuels the climate will start mellowing out once more. Over a few decades the climate will return to roughly 1850 conditions and continue on toward the next scheduled ice age.
What kind of shape we humans are in after this next 40 - 100 years is anyone's guess. We could, worst case, be down to a very small breeding population huddled in "biospheres" close to the poles. The larger number of us could lose out and get wiped out as we compete for the last livable parts of the globe.
Or we could get our act together over the next 20 or so years and turn to renewable energy and, with some luck, dodge the worst. We might get by with only abandoning our lowest, most flood prone real estate and our most drought hit areas.
The onset of melting is typically in early June, but occurred in late July in 2002, and late June in 2003 and 2004. The Web Cam images show very limited melt pond coverage in 2002, but widespread melt pond coverage in 2003 and 2004. In 2003, the melt ponds were widespread by July 4, but diminished in late July, and then reformed in mid-August. Freezeup began in late August in 2002, Sept 7 in 2003, and in mid-August in 2004.
Summer sea ice transition information was not available for 2005 or 2007.
In 2008, the snow became waterlogged June 25, and extensive meltponds formed quickly, only five days later (June 30). Meltponds are still observed August 25 in standard web cam images. After that time, the only clear images are from another webcam with a fisheye lens observing sky conditions, but also revealing snow conditions. Meltponds are visible on the fisheye image from September 14. Although further images are at least partially obscured by water drops or snow on the lens, there appears to be snow cover in an image from Sepember 22. In summary, in 2008, the onset of melt progressed more quickly than in previous years, and melt ponds persisted longer and later than usual.
In 2009, the snow became soft and meltponds started to form July 8, but never became very widespread, with the maximum meltpond extent observed around July 14-16. Meltponds were closing over by Aug 11, but small slits of open water were still visible Sept 8. After that date, only one image was received from the web cam, on Sept 25, at which time the melt ponds were all snowcovered. In summary, in 2009, onset of melt was later than most years (later only in 2002). Meltpond coverage was less widespread than any year observed by the web cams other than 2002, but the snow remained soft later than most years (at least through Sept 8).
In 2010, the snow became soft Jun 25, similar to many other years, but widespread meltponds formed by Jun 27, earlier than in any of the other years observed by the webcams. Freezeup began Aug 12 and meltponds were covered by Aug 23.
"Web cams show more melt ponds than last year, but less than in other recent years. This is in spite of there having been more snow in April 2010 than the previous 2 springs. For the most part, the ice at both 2010 Web Cam locations looks fairly well drained, presumably contributing to increased albedo - As evidenced by the number of times we have seen the 2010 melt ponds freeze over already, we think the early summer input of heat to the ice from the atmosphere is less than average". From July 13, 2010 discussion by J. Morison and N. Untersteiner (University of Washington) in the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Outlook in the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook.
In 2011, the Arctic lost sea ice very rapidly in the first half of July. Ice loss slowed in late July-early August, but resumed again later in August. The September 2011 sea ice minimum was at or near a record low.
Find more information:
The North Pole Environmental Observatory (NPEO)
The North Pole Web Cam
The Puzzling Arctic Summer or 2003, observed by the N. Pole Web Cam
The Short Arctic Summer of 2004, observed by the N. Pole Web Cam
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About the Arctic Change Indicator website | http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect
arctic.webmaster@noaa.gov
NOAA Arctic website, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov...Here is a link....Link
Warm ocean driving Antarctic ice loss
Excerpt:
"Previously, you would have thought that we needed a lot of warming in the atmosphere to get a substantial loss of ice from Antarctica - because it's such a cold place. But what we show is that that's not necessary; you don't need radical change.
"All you need are quite subtle changes - such as a change in the winds - and that can produce effects at the edges of Antarctica that then lead to a loss of a lot of ice."
The only way an ice age could result from this is if there was one or more strong negative feedbacks that could be induced from warmer temperatures. The current research, both from modern physical studies as well as paleoclimate studies, shows that at best any negative feedbacks act to reduce the amount of warming, not prohibit or reverse it.
From SCIENCE magazine, 2 September 2005:
The Effect of Diurnal Correction
on Satellite-Derived Lower
Tropospheric Temperature, by
Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz
Article header/summary reads: "Satellite-based measurements of decadal-scale temperature change in the lower troposphere have indicated cooling relative to Earth’s surface in the tropics. Such
measurements need a diurnal correction to prevent drifts in the satellites’ measurement time from causing spurious trends. We have derived a diurnal correction that, in the tropics, is of the opposite sign from that previously applied. When we use this correction in the calculation of lower tropospheric temperature from satellite microwave measurements, we find tropical warming consistent with that found at the surface and in our satellite-derived version of middle/upper tropospheric temperature."
Though several years hence, now, this was the incident that had stuck in my mind.
If the trough and high both move east, yes. With that forecast, the trough is too far west to help create shear and act as a focus for storm development.
The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007). To get more landfalling storms during the hurricane season, you need a break in the high pressure, and a trough over the midwest, or over the mountains (ideally, you would have a more zonal flow, with less amplification). On this map, the trough is too far west.
James Lovelock used to hold a very extreme position that was not backed up by the science and not endorsed by climate scientists in general. His original warming claims exceeded event the IPCC worst case scenario by a fair margin when it came to temperature rise, which by itself is a considerable stretch in regards to the response of CO2.
Recently, I think he came to the realization that the climate science community had it right and that his DOOM scenarios were a mistake. However, his other statements don't necessarily follow. For instance, there is no corroborating science that temperatures will only rise another 1-2C, and certainly no science stating that rise will have no impact on the globe.
So he's gone from one extreme to the other. Instead of claiming climate scientists are wrong and we are doomed, he is now saying that climate scientists are wrong and we will be peachy. At least he is consistent in thinking that climate scientists are wrong. :P
In any event, neither his previous claims of the end of the world nor his current claims of nothing bad will happen are backed up by any reviewed research I'm aware of. It's just his (rather flawed) opinion. I wouldn't attribute it to malice though.
I know. I put in my $.02 on that too, in post# 85. I was answering Hurricanes2012 in post #86.
I wasn't speaking in regards to the relative strength of storms or the high... just the pattern. 2007 is the closest general pattern I could come up with, consisting of a high pressure over the SE, and a trough in the west. When you have that general pattern type, tropical cyclones have a harder time pushing north, due to the high blocking them. The exception would be the TX coast, but that depends on the relative strength of the high and the storm... which I didn't delve into.
The Antarctic continental ice shelf won't be melting anytime soon. Due to it's unique environment and the fact that it is land locked, the impacts of warming are gradual and mainly relegated to the edges of the continent. That can accelerate ice loss but it will still take quite a long time.
The Arctic ice, on the other hand, is melting from both sides. Most of the world's population lives in the norther hemisphere, and when our arctic regulator vanishes it's going to bring some noticeable changes (some of which we are already seeing). Current projections have the arctic ice melting out this century (sooner rather than later it seems). Greenland and Antarctica won't be melting out completely for quite some time.
The Arctic is the big focus for now because it will affect the most people and will be happening in the very near future. Eventually Antarctica will become an issue, but not anytime in the near future.
Look to HPC JFV
Extended Forecast Discussion
Excerpt:
HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT SRN FL AND THE BAHAMAS/CUBA AS A STRONGER THAN AVERAGE SYSTEM BEGINS THE LATE MID SPRING WET SEASON IN THIS REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE ERN GLFMEX/WRB CARRIBEAN WITH MDT/STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY CONVERGENCE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
Excerpt:
THROUGH 72-84 HRS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/ILL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. NOTE THAT FOR THIS AREA THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MAXIMA OF NEARLY 100MM FOR
DAYS 04-05.
Interesting! Looks like South Florida will get those much needed rains.
That's no exaggeration there. We all know what you want.
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