Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's one thing to use an objective classification like "most tornadoes in a 24hr period" or "most damage from tornadoes in 24hrs" but the wording used... most violent in world history, is much more subjective. Implication seems to be that it could mean most violent series of tornadoes, or that it could mean all of world history. The latter begs all sorts of questions... just official records? unofficial records? an assumption that we've never had such a large outbreak sequence since humans started inhabiting the planet?

What Doc I believe was referring to was the fact these tornadoes hit fairly big metro areas and as a result killed hundreds.

Portlight update on the Tolbert Home.


Everything is underway at the Tolbert House! Volunteers have been working together whole heartily to transform this house into a home for Rita and her three beautiful girls (ages; 5, 3, 17mo).

Our volunteers are doing everything in their power to get this house into livable condition so the Tolbert family can begin the move in process. There are still numerous tasks to complete, and your help is still needed.

We are expecting volunteer work and productivity to rapidly progress as our volunteer coordinator Dylan Stanek will be returning from college in Grand Rapids, MI and will begin volunteering full time for the Tolbert House Project. He will return to Harrisburg, IL on May 4th and plans to remain there until the project is complete. I am thrilled to report that our incredible volunteers have accomplished approximately 55-60% of the demolition work (floor removal, plaster removal, basic preparations needed to begin reconstruction, etc.).

We are blessed and more than grateful for their hard work. The electrical reconstruction process has began and we anticipate that plumbing reconstruction will follow closely after. The completion of electrical and plumbing reconstruction is estimated to happen soon. Project donations are still needed in the form of supplies, labor, money, etc.

We specifically need donations of electrical, plumbing, carpentry, and dry-wall labor and supplies and are also in need of other miscellaneous skills, trades and supplies. If you would like to donate or volunteer to this project please contact us. You can contact Dylan Stanek regarding any questions, donations, and how to get get involved volunteering at: dylan@portlight.org. We appreciate all of your donations, support, help, and prayers.

On behalf of the Tolbert family, the town of Harrisburg, IL, and our volunteers, Portlight Strategies Inc. would like to extend our thanks and gratitude to you. Your support is a key element in our abilty to continue helping anyone. Please keep checking in to our blog and website (www.portlight.org) as more updates will be on the way.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1974:

* $3.5 billion (2005 USD)
* 319 fatalities.
* 6 EF5s (record).
* 148 tornadoes in a 24-hour period.

2011:

* 208 tornadoes in a 24-hour period (record).
* ~11 billion (2011 USD) in damage (record).
* 4 EF5s
* 321 fatalities

Thanks man you just beat me!

Quoting hydrus:
Winds so powerful, that is can literally damage the streets...

amazing pic there, even took the road away as it swept past, tar and all

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1120 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GMZ054-072>074-271630-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1120 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH NOON...WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS...FROM 25 TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TENNESSEE REEF LIGHT TO
20 TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF BIG PINE SHOAL AND THE WESTERN DRY ROCKS.
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE FOUND BEYOND 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL CUT VISIBILITY TO BELOW 4
MILES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...GENERATE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND A FEW CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

$$
APA

Quoting StormTracker2K:


What Doc I believe was referring to was the fact these tornadoes hit fairly big metro areas and as a result killed hundreds.

Tornadoes have hit metro areas before. Tornado outbreaks and outbreak sequences have killed hundreds before.

COC011-061-099-280100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PUEBLO COLORADO
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
859 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PUEBLO COLORADO.

ONE OR MORE TORNADOES SWEPT THROUGH PORTIONS OF PROWERS...KIOWA
AND POSSIBLY BENT COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY
12 AM AND 3 AM MDT. THE TORNADOES HAVE CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE
TO HOMES...POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POWER IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN SOME LOCATIONS. POWER LINES ARE LYING
ACROSS ROADWAYS AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED DANGEROUS.

AS A RESULT OF THE HAZARDOUS NATURE OF THE SITUATION...THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OF PROWERS COUNTY HAS REQUESTED THAT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE NOTIFY ALL PERSONS IN AND AROUND PROWERS...KIOWA
AND BENT COUNTIES TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION.

EMERGENCY SERVICES ARE WORKING AS FAST AS POSSIBLE TO RESTORE THE
LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE. PLEASE BE PATIENT.

$$

Gotta love how some like to question Doc's post. I think his post is right on the money in regards to last years Tornado Outbreak.

From Doc.
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.

Quoting nigel20:

really flaring up now with the heat of the day

Quoting nigel20:

Some pretty cold cloud tops. Nice, but not really anything that has a strong chance of development. If it scoots over to the EPAC, there might be some better chances for development.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-280000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
933 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. THESE SMALL CHANCES SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

RL

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Gotta love how some like to question Doc's post. I think his post is right on the money in regards to last years Tornado Outbreak.

From Doc.
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Super_Outbreak
"The 1974 Super Outbreak is the second largest tornado outbreak on record for a single 24-hour period, just behind the 2011 Super Outbreak. It was also the most violent tornado outbreak ever recorded, with 30 F4/F5 tornadoes reported."

That is twice the number from the entire 2011 tornado outbreak sequence.

I do not think you understand what I am getting at in my post. Perhaps you will if you take a deep breath and re-read. The 2011 April 27th outbreak, and the April 25-28 outbreak sequence was clearly a big deal. There are numerous objective measures that indicate this. That is my point... subjectivity isn't exactly the best way to put it when there is so many firm, objective statistics to use.

Quoting LargoFl:
really flaring up now with the heat of the day

Yeah, that's quite a blob

Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.

At that point in the video, the tornado tore through the shopping complex next to the mall. Thank the higher powers that it did not hit on a Saturday!! The businesses in that complex were completely leveled, one of which was a Chuck E Cheese...

In minutes 2:33-2:39 of Video 3 you can see the destruction of the center. the first building in the strip on the right was the Chuck E Cheese, and the large square building in the back of the lot was a Hobby Lobby (I have a coworker who was trapped in that store on that day and emerged unscathed with about 30 others who were shopping there that day!).

April 26, 2011

April 26, 2012

80 percent chance of tornadoes in southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening, be safe in Kansas.

Seems as if the NAO is going negative soon

Quoting nigel20:
Seems as if the NAO is going negative soon

Maybe why some of the models want to make things interesting around FL next week.

Slight Risk Upgrade for Georgia and South Carolina!! Mesoscale Discussion 604

Quoting hydrus:
Like I said yesterday, if this was hurricane season, that could be serious trouble for folks down there.

It is a blob to watch for all the moisture it could bring. It could fuel some super cells later on. Meanwhile a lot of moisture streamed up off it into NE Canada the past few days.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's one thing to use an objective classification like "most tornadoes in a 24hr period" or "most damage from tornadoes in 24hrs" but the wording used... most violent in world history, is much more subjective. Implication seems to be that it could mean most violent series of tornadoes, or that it could mean all of world history. The latter begs all sorts of questions... just official records? unofficial records? an assumption that we've never had such a large outbreak sequence since humans started inhabiting the planet?

Lots of purple prose on the blog today.

Visual on our Carribean Disturbance. Link

Definitely being persistant given the conditions!

'Damaging' is another word I'd have a quibble with. It needs a modifier such as "economic damage"
Frankly if severe weather were to destroy only McMansions, I'd count the damage as less-than-zero; more as major improvements to the neighborhoods.

Whereas loss of regular folks' homes and especially mementos -- special-gift knick-knacks, photos&videos, the door frame markings of the kids' heights, the tree planted on a birthday, etc -- would be major damage.

And the emotional damage due to the loss of those homes would be the same; whether to a shack, to a trailer, or to a ranch house.

Then there's injury and loss of life. Sorry, but a thousand deaths in Bangladesh is more than hundreds in the US.

Quoting MTWX:
Slight Risk Upgrade for Georgia and South Carolina!! Mesoscale Discussion 604

Gah, just to my east.

later fellow bloggers

Quoting nigel20:
later fellow bloggers

Have a good day, stay safe.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
80 percent chance of tornadoes in southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening, be safe in Kansas.

Is this from TWC?

12Z GFS, Bahamas get soaked. 4-day total PCPN

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Gah, just to my east.

Gah, only a thousand miles to my southwest!

Good afternoon everybody.

Well this story is shockingly timely

Study: Most victims knew Ala. twisters were coming

Most of the victims of last year's epic tornado outbreak in Alabama had at least one thing in common: They knew the storm was coming.

A year after the onslaught of dozens of twisters killed at least 250 people in Alabama and more elsewhere in the South, federal researchers are completing a study of who died and where they were when it happened. Among the conclusions so far: Nearly half of the people who died had been advised to take shelter. Indeed, most of them did.

But many of the tornadoes were so fierce that few structures were able to withstand them.

Just the absolute horror of knowing how awful something like that is coming at you and the terror that you really can't do anything about it....just ugh.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is this from TWC?

Yep.

Friday April 27
AL north - less than 2
GA north - less than 2
IA extreme south night - 2
IL west-central night - 2
KS southeast - 8
KS central - 4
KS northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southwest - 8
MO northwest - 2
MO central - 2 to 3
MO east night - 2
MS northeast - less than 2
NC southwest, southeast - less than 2
NE extreme southeast - 2
OK northeast - 4
TN south half - less than 2
SC north, central - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Saturday April 28
IL south - 2 to 3
IN south - 2 to 3
KY north, central - 2 to 3
MO central, south - 2 to 3
OH extreme south - 2 to 3
OK northeast - 2 to 3
OK south-central - 2 or less
TX north-central - 2 or less
WV south - 2 to 3
Other areas - less than 2

12Z GFS is showing a tremendous amount of rain across most of FL next week. Could be some localized flooding if this materializes.

This is only out 7 days!

The area for tornadoes is quite small so there should be a lot of diffrent views on the same storm. Its gona be a good time as long as everything stays out of populated areas.

NOLA's Jazz fest begins today, Bruce Springsteen and Tom Petty tomorrow.

New Orleans Jazz Fest's best bets for the first weekend
Published: Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 9:51 AM

MTWX, seems that there are 2 areas of 8. Is Kansas City under the gun?

Quoting Patrap:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:21 AM CDT on April 27, 2012 +14
A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.

Why would I ever read the blog?

Quoting 1911maker:
Link

Can Helmets Cut Tornado Deaths? CDC Isn't So Sure

April 27, 2012

Tornadoes killed more than 500 people in the U.S. last year — the highest number in decades. Already this year, 63 people have died, and the tornado season doesn't hit its peak until June.

But tornadoes don't have to be as deadly. Experts say some deaths could be prevented if people would do one more thing when taking cover: wear a helmet. It's a message safety advocates are preaching, but that message hasn't resonated with federal officials just yet.

I could see someting like a motorcycle helmet (or as in the article, a baseball helmet) offering pretty decent protection, but a bicycle helmet not so much.

Quoting MTWX:


Yep.

Friday April 27
AL north - less than 2
GA north - less than 2
IA extreme south night - 2
IL west-central night - 2
KS southeast - 8
KS central - 4
KS northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southwest - 8
MO northwest - 2
MO central - 2 to 3
MO east night - 2
MS northeast - less than 2
NC southwest, southeast - less than 2
NE extreme southeast - 2
OK northeast - 4
TN south half - less than 2
SC north, central - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Saturday April 28
IL south - 2 to 3
IN south - 2 to 3
KY north, central - 2 to 3
MO central, south - 2 to 3
OH extreme south - 2 to 3
OK northeast - 2 to 3
OK south-central - 2 or less
TX north-central - 2 or less
WV south - 2 to 3
Other areas - less than 2

Too high I think... With such a small area potentially under the gun there is a lot of room for a bust forecast today... I would've went with 7 at the most

Anybody coming to FL next might want to pack a poncho as it looks. Looks like some upper level energy is going to combine with deep tropical moisture coming up from the Bahamas and Caribbean.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
MTWX, seems that there are 2 areas of 8. Is Kansas City under the gun?

Just noticed that and adjusted my comment accordingly...

Looks like KC may be just north of Dr. Forbes 8 rating.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS is showing a tremendous amount of rain across most of FL next week. Could be some localized flooding if this materializes.

Great to see, time to green things up !

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season...
Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2.
Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.

Are you sure about that.