Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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wish I could sent it all up to Central and North Florida... so far nearly 2.5 " just this morning..
add to the 1.6 from yesterday... now over 4" in 2 days.
We already have flooding.. the streets are flooding, the yards are flooding.. the pool is overflowing...
we are all Ducks!
glad we did not have outdoor plans today.
Mid level low moving north out of the carib and inversted trof over the bahamas will put the squeeze play across southern florida later today into the coming week. severe threat looks minimal.
edit..Believe the GFS model is suffering from convective feedback, but having said that, there's definitely a heavy rain signal..not only in the GFS model but others. So localized heavy rain is possible.
Hey neighbor.. I know.. it seems to be drought or flooding.. why cannot we just get rain 2 times a week an inch each time and life would be perfect...
but NOOOOOO we must get it all at once and flood.
This rain needs to be north of Lake Okeechobee so it will flow down into the Lake. All this rain south of the lake is not doing it any good.
This has been the wettest April here in Broward that I can remember since I've been here in 1979.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-301030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
515 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
...FLOOD WATCH PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH WAVE ACTION WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED.
WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.
WIND: EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH, PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLOODING: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL/METRO
PORTIONS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND ALL OF MIAMI
DADE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRUCTURAL
FLOODING IN SOME LOCALES IN THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WAVES: SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON BISCAYNE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
Gustav prompts major changes to RNC agenda
JOHN MCCAIN
August 31, 2008
Underwater Kelp Forest
Thomas D. Elias: Coastal nuclear plants generate big questions
Source: LA Daily News
Author: Thomas D. Elias
Date: 04/24/2012
Anyone looking for the most under-reported story of the spring in California need seek no further than the tall stalks of kelp swaying back and forth just beneath the ocean surface along much of the California coast.
Fish eat kelp; so do small crustaceans near the bottom of the food chain that themselves are later consumed by larger fish that sometimes become food for humans. The largely-neglected news story is that it’s been somewhat radioactive off-and-on for months [...]
For sure, no one looks more prescient today than the 10 legislators who wrote the NRC weeks before Fukushima begging for public hearings in California before the renewal proceedings go very far. [...]
http://www.dailynews.com/opinions/ci_20471926/tho mas-d-elias-coastal-nuclear-plants-generate-big
I am in Ft Lauderdale area.
This is not good. too much rain at once.
When I got up only had less than 1/2" in the gauge since 1pm yesterday when I dumped 1.6".. now it is over 3" of rain and still falling very heavy..
3" in a few hours is a lot of rain all at once...and no sign it will stop anytime soon.
at some point I will get some pictures and load them.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
433 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF OUT TO 60
NM AND GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE OUT
20 NM AND CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE
WATERS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SEAS ARE GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
AMZ650-670-292130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
433 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
.TODAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST TO EAST 17 TO
22 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. DOMINANT PERIOD 5 SECONDS.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST TO EAST 19 TO
24 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. DOMINANT PERIOD 6 SECONDS.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. SHOWERS LIKELY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST TO EAST 19 TO
24 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. DOMINANT PERIOD 6 SECONDS.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 18 TO 23 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...EAST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST 17 TO 22 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST 17 TO 22 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 5 TO
7 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
$$
Only if the saints couldve gone!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
909 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012
KSC021-037-291700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120429T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-
909 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...
AT 901 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...
HIGHWAY 7 AT LITTLE CHERRY CREEK NORTH OF COLUMBUS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
LAT...LON 3768 9462 3764 9461 3723 9462 3700 9494
3700 9507 3745 9509
$$
FOSTER
had to dump my large rain gauge because it only holds 5" and it was past 4 already from this morning.
My other gauge I got from Rainman's weather supplies and it will hold 11" total..because of the over spill collection..
flood water in back yard is out of the pool standing above pool level.. streets are flooded and moving up into yards.
total of over 5.7" so far in 2 days of this system.
12 hour
24 hour
36 hour
48 hour
Folks, Miami and south florida may get a TON of rain on top of what we have now!
That is not good.. we are saturated now...
Not to me or anyone in Louisiana, guess yall dont see what they do for us.
Cant you tell where the 26 C water is LOL
Wanted to see zac brown band
oh well
Easy there cowboy...That inverted trough is expected to eventually move well into the Gulf by mid-late next week while a ridge tries to reestablish itself across central/northern Florida and Georgia by then. But none since two days ago have been calling for this low to move directly up and over the Florida Peninsula(although the GFS appears to be an eastern outlier with the western-most flank across west-central Florida).
At best, I only can call for a stray afternoon of evening shower or thunderstorm Wed-Sat(20%). Otherwise the cape will be too strong. Now Lake Okeechobee southwards will be an entirely different story altogether!
Well this is odd, A low has replaced the bermuda high, of course this is unlikely and a very long way out, I cant believe a model would show this.
Cmc has it too?!
very much so:) im the only kid in my school that likes them but thats okay!
went to the saints texans game this year and the fans were all very nice!
Ton of rain moving into sefla
I'm starting to wonder if this is going to hang around long enough for us to get some kind of tropical low out of it.
After all, Camille's lowest central pressure was 24mb higher than Wilma, which is exactly as big as the difference between a minimum category 4 and a minimum category 5 hurricane.
So, intuitively, Wilma should have been the equivalent of a full category stronger than Camille, or about 215mph sustained.
Considering at peak intensity they were similar storms in terms of structure, I think it's a fair comparison.
Rita and Katrina had much larger eyes than Camille, which explains the lower wind speed in spite of having lower pressure.
We got over 5" of rain last night and more on the way. How many did you get last night? It seems you are in for another round just about now?
Hey, gamma. Looks like were are getting our old Spring rains back. We have overflows on our pool but the rain came down really heavy and it went over the top. I haven't seen that in years. I think they will have to cancel the Air Show today on the beach.
Viewing: 701 - 751
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