Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Scroll down and click on Cam 3.
I know, just in a strange mood today. All alone, no one around, rainy, gloomy. I just got tired of calling them blobs, so I decided to use a meteorlogical term.
That is a tragedy. It has happened a couple of times this past year.
..if you listen near the end of that video, they talk of a manhole cover that was sent airborne.
Well at least he had those guitars that got stolen back with him for those shows.
Link
A crossing wouldn't do much to slow a truly intense Major. LOTS more hot water than land, and...
..the highest point in the Bahamas is 63metres(207feet) above sea-level, and most of the land is lower than 12metres(39feet). In the Bahamas and the GrandTurks&Caicos, there are relatively large islands and large parts of islands that are uninhabited because a past hurricane's storm surge washed over their settlements... and nobody figured it was worth their while to rebuild&repopulate.
So even land interactions wouldn't produce much friction to brake such storms.
Hey pedley...what's up?
Is it some sort of per-view to what the Ox-Bridgers,(Oxford-Cambridge,) call the "Commie Holiday,"
All for one, one for all, everybody gets equal wages and the pigs get to sleep in beds with sheets? Animal farm, Orwell, etc.
Pouring with rain here at the 'outskirts'(dare I use that term, there may be juveniles reading?) of Jerez Spain, for the world motor cycle GP which is about to start in a few hours from now.
Its obvious that the majority of frequent bloggers are taking the day off and chilling out, before the start of the big blow up for the Western Atlantic in the next few weeks.
Just kicking back and enjoying the weekend. Had a small earthquake this morning. (3.8) barely felt it, it was about 2 seconds worth.15-20 miles North. You guys get Hurricanes and I get EQ's
I never discuss politics, religion, climate change or most social issues.
Instead of spending my money on fancy cars and big houses and fine restaurants, I did the smart thing. I married someone who could buy these things for me. I am not now, nor have I ever been in the Social Security System.
At the moment this race was taking place, a hailstorm raked across Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
For older horse fans, I saw Snow Chief run at Oaklawn Park shortly before he retired in 1987, and he looked like a tank moving down the stretch, flanked on both sides by his attendants. He truly was an awesome horse to watch, with perhaps the biggest chest I've ever seen to this day.
I intend to marry a rich girl lol
Hey Red, and those guys will go do that race raining or not. Cool.
Well, I started out as Napolean and changed into the Old Major. Now I think I am more like Mr.Pilkington. So, you are in Eurasia?
Yeah, quakes are pretty common for you guys on the west coast...i've been in a few M4's and 5's myself
You feel those 5's, I been in a 6.6 and a 6.7, Those you remember. Nothing big here (near me) since the 1994 one (fingers crossed).
I'd rather be with the Earthquakes than the hurricanes and twisters.
That and being too close to sea level.
hopefully you'll not get anything too strong anytime soon
All these tornadoes, heat waves, hail stones, broken temp records,ice melting!Floods, droughts,sandstorms, Etc. etc's
That's before we consider oil leaks, radiation escapes, gas leaks, with a few wars, nuclear tests, genetically modified bacteria, (which even we never thought of!) and of course the general background population explosion. Then we have the ongoing economic crisis, a few passing plagues and the imminent migration of millions of starving 3rd worlders.
Who can add more? Oh the general increase in earthquake activity along with volcanic events!
The third stone from the sun looks like its in for an interesting next couple of decades?
I'm so glad we found you lot? Otherwise times would just have been a dull progression into the future. At least we can now look forward to infinitesimal dissection of the storm season!
Not looking forward to it. I'm good without one. Here's hoping that this wet seasons doesn't wash any of you guys off your islands. Way too much rain lately down there. And it is the dry season, right.
Yes it is..what's up Twpr?
I preffer hurricanes more than earthquaks....earthquakes can be very destructive especially along subduction zones
2.00, AM here, now and throwing it down with rain, I pity the fans in the tents out there who are about 60 miles away from me.
Mud and misery for sure. I used to suffer it too when we built those bikes about 40+years ago before the costs prohibited us from competing.
Still I hope it fines up for tomorrow as over 100,000 will be there to see the GP.
Thanks Pedley for your interest.
Plaza.
Yeeah....typically the rainy season starts around mid-late May and finishes around October
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 127.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INTENSE CONVECTION THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. A 281913Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS
POORLY ORGANIZED. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, INCLUDING A 281541Z
OSCAT PASS, REVEALS A SHARP SURFACE WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SIMILARLY, THE 282100Z 850 MB
VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A WAVE-LIKE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THIS AREA IS UNDER EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KNOTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING AMPLE EXHAUST, AIDING THE
INTENSE CONVECTION. THE 282300Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO,
PHILIPPINES REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT FOUR KNOTS, AND A SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE;
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO TRANSITION INTO A
CLOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Doing fine. Only 33 days left until June 1rst.
Link
I'll be watching that from afar tomorrow. Love GP racing 2or 4 wheels. Been a fan of it since the early 60's when the cars were
really simple compared to what they field today. Long Live F1.
Senor Grother, Perdon mi teclada Inglais!
Estoy aqui en Iberia, moy cera la Cuidad de Jerez. el tiempo ex moy malo con cubascos moy fuertes y posibilidads de tormentas.
Manana es el dia de Gren Pix de motorcyclistas en Jerez y yo voy y hacer una nmisa para ellos por bein tiempo.
Saludos Curandero! Caballero.
( Soy del coligio de Illuminati?)
It's amazing to think that the 2004 hurricane season obtained the title of "most costly season" with just something like a total of $50 billion in damage. Then just a year later we had individual storms like Katrina and Wilma that were costing anywhere from 50%-200% of what had been the previous seasonal record.
Excellent post by Dr. Masters.
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