Hurricane Irene of 2011 now rated history's 6th most damaging hurricane
New damage estimates released last month by NOAA now place the damage from 2011's Hurricane Irene at $15.8 billion, making the storm the 6th costliest hurricane and 10th costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. history. Irene hit North Carolina on August 27, 2011, as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, and made landfalls the next day in New Jersey and New York City as a tropical storm. Most of the damage from Irene occurred because of the tremendous fresh water flooding the storm's rains brought to much of New England. Irene is now rated as the most expensive Category 1 hurricane to hit the U.S. The previous record was held by Hurricane Agnes of 1972, whose floods did $11.8 billion in damage in the Northeast. NOAA also announced that the name Irene had been retired from the list of active hurricane names. Irene was the only named retired in 2011, and was the 76th name to be retired since 1954. The name Irene was replaced with Irma, which is next scheduled be used in 2017.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
At last month's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Paul Ruscher of Florida State University explained how Irene's storm surge came within 8 inches of flooding New York City's subway system, which would have caused devastating damage. At the current global rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year, a repeat of Irene 65 years from now would be capable of flooding the subway system, if no action is taken. Since sea level rise is expected to accelerate as the planet warms in coming decades, an Irene-type storm surge would likely be capable of flooding the NYC subway system much sooner than that. To read more about New York City's vulnerability, see Andrew Freedman's analysis at Climate Central, Climate Change Could Cripple New York’s Transportation, or my November 2011 blog post, Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster.
Jeff Masters
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There was no spin on the 850 earlier today...
Do you think this could possibly change our forecast, and give us some rain?
They came from England in the '60s, right?
That is very bad. It reminds me of sections of forest that have been ravaged by the pine beetle here in Colorado, which is also very visible on Google maps. This section is just west of the Eisenhower/Johnson tunnels and its shows clearly how bad it is. Click link to zoom in all the way.
Link
And it's just the beginning of the season...
Hey, Nigel! I'm good, looking out for some isolated severe storms to maybe get some photos of today. How've you been?
This could get tagged 92L soon.
hope so...
Don't get your hopes up for that :)
Good afternoon everyone...
I don't know.
I've been good...thanks for asking
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS... THEREFORE
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
SOILS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATED THE MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...AND RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO NEW
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT..A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
The 850mb vort is too far to the west. The "center" of the MLC is roughly south of Panama City, while the 850mb vort is roughly south of Mobile.
Good afternoon MAweatherboy1
Good afternoon tropics i've notice that Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean have been wet over the past couple of days
THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE...THE EASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY HELPS INITIATE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST CATCHING THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA.
TWO...THE AREA REMAINS QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
FIRING ON THE NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MISSOURI. IN
ORDER TO GET CONVECTION IN THE CWFA THE CAP ACROSS KS/MO WOULD
HAVE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH.
THREE...THE CI/CS SHIELD KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. CONVECTION THEN FIRES TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MN CONVECTION.
FOUR...THE CWFA REMAINS QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION
DEVELOPS TONIGHT ON THE MN BOUNDARY AND KS/MO BOUNDARY AND REMAINS
OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA.
Just had very heavy downpour, lots of thunder with it. Over half inch rain in 30 minutes in East of Tortola
Has anybody noticed that developing low in the Gulf of Mexico yet? I've not read back so I wouldn't know if y'all have talked about it yet.
Looks interesting.
"If the sinking motion at high latitudes were completely stopped, by covering that part of the ocean by sea ice for instance, there would still be a Gulf Stream to the south, and maybe an even more powerful one as the wind field would probably then become stronger. If the sinking were stopped by adding fresh water (a deus ex machina often invoked to change the climate), the Gulf Stream would hardly care except in so far as the wind system changed too. The amount of heat transported by the system would shift, but could not become zero.
"Many writers, including scientists, toss around the words “Thermohaline Circulation” as though they constituted an explanation. In the ocean, most of the movement of heat and salt, the real Thermohaline Circulation, is driven directly and indirectly by the wind field. Thus the Gulf Stream, and hence the wind, rather than being minor features of oceanic climate are best regarded as the primary elements. Many real climate change effects exist and require urgent attention; focusing on near-impossible Gulf Stream failure is an unproductive distraction."
The folks at RealClimate.org do not agree with everything Wunsch says, but they do point out the following in commenting on Wunsch's letter.
"However, the Economist is using the term in a much more colliquial [sic] (and common) sense that conflates this current with the Meridional Overturning Circulation ... "
Nota bene: I doubt that conflating the two is common at the Economist since I doubt the average staffer there knows what the MOC is, but perhaps the conflation is common among climate scientists.
" ... (MOC, often conflated with the Thermohaline Circulation) which involves convection in the waters around Greenland and the deep currents that cool the deep ocean. This use of the term is often synomymous with northward ocean heat transport (the North Atlantic Current) that contributes to Europe’s warmth and which have often been fingered as a particularly sensitive aspect of the climate. While in one sense the water flow associated with the MOC does contribute to the Gulf Stream, it is definitely the junior partner, and so any changes in the MOC are not going to threaten the Gulf Stream in any existential way. However, a shutdown in the MOC does not make as good a headline as a shutdown in the Gulf Stream, and so this misuse persists in the media and public alike (though not in the Day After Tomorrow – they used ‘North Atlantic Current’ throughout!).
"If the definition of Gulf Stream was really all that this was about, I doubt Wunsch would have picked up his pen, however, what Wunsch really objects to is the casual use of the word ‘driven’. This is a much more subtle point and one which even the scientific community hasn’t fully assimilated yet."
Ahhh, back to the scientific community. The public picks up scientists' bad habits. These habits then can run amok among innocent minds ... or not so innocent.
The comments at the RealClimate post are interesting.
It's likely just a short term meso-vort that is convective induced, and will mostly fall apart pretty soon.
Such is a common occurrence with a relatively, persistent MCS.
Is the topic as you can see back most of the past posts.
What's up TAwx13?
Link
Let's hope so. I'm in East Texas near the LA border and 60 miles north of the coast...it's getting a little dry here too. But at least we are starting with full ponds this summer.
Just wanted to take this quiet time to say thanks to the weather bloggers here. I've lurked for quite a while, and learned lots about weather, maps, forecast models, wishes and fishes. About all I can contribute is country weather lore, but wanted to let ya'll know you are appreciated.
It doesn't matter, it's still not gonna rain in Florida, nothing to see here, move along.
Most of this is being predicted by statistical models and the more important dynamical models are almost all showing el nino developing sooner rather. I think its pretty likely we will see atleast a weak el nino during the meat of the season.
Adrian,something to raise the spirits of people who like to track systems, at least we can track a little bit more with a weak El Nino,rather than a Moderate to Strong one.
physorg article here
How's that for "yawning"?
Interesting. Did not know that. Thanks. :) I read somewhere that last years drought killed a half a billion trees in the east TX piney woods alone. Not counting those lost to fire. Makes me wonder how those numbers compare to the number killed by Rita and Ike? Sounds like a search for later. :)
Looking at the SST anomalies you'll noticed that any possible el nino will not occur anytime soon...the CPC is saying that after September there is a 50-50 chance of having ENSO neutral or el nino conditions, if there prediction comes through I think we may have atleast a slightly above average hurricane season.
PS.T-storms,weaker or heavier,are near me for 2 hours now
There's going to be an El-Nino this summer infact Nino regions 3 & 4 really warmed last week to -.01. We are at nuetral now and the Pacific is still warming so I would say all of the experts at Colorado State have a good handle on this season's predictions. Bottomline expect to see atleast weak El-nino by August if not sooner.
CMC
moves back in to SC and then rides back up the coast of NC and goes somewhat off shore and comes back in to NC..I wont post all the images
The Euro
Right. Also, ENSO changes will take a bit to really have an impact in the NATL basin for hurricanes. From what I've seen, if the waters are Neutral during AMJ, the ENSO atmospheric effects on the basin will also be neutral during ASO.
That said, I wouldn't count on an El Nino - type season this year. I'd expect more of a "neutral" season, with a weak bias.
Hey Thrawst. Good to know
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
MIC011-051-032045-
/O.CON.KAPX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120503T2045Z/
ARENAC MI-GLADWIN MI-
404 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GLADWIN AND ARENAC
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEAVERTON...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF GLADWIN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALGER...STERLING...STANDISH...AU GRES...WINEGARS...WOODEN SHOE
VILLAGE...OMER...TWINING...MAPLE RIDGE AND TURNER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Whoa! Hope that above average over TX pans out. :)
I don't see a disturbance there. I see a front stalling offshore, and the model not knowing wtf to do with it.
Also, it is the CMC, I wouldn't place much faith in it for tropical purposes.
I did post the Euro as well and the GFS has been showing the same thing as well..I dont see a front..I see a low
It all depends on how strong are going to be the Kelvin Waves that transport the warmer waters from west to east.
Constantly Making Cyclones. Looks like a stalled front with some upper sir disturbances moving from NW to SE across TN, GA, & FL.
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