Hurricane Irene of 2011 now rated history's 6th most damaging hurricane
New damage estimates released last month by NOAA now place the damage from 2011's Hurricane Irene at $15.8 billion, making the storm the 6th costliest hurricane and 10th costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. history. Irene hit North Carolina on August 27, 2011, as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, and made landfalls the next day in New Jersey and New York City as a tropical storm. Most of the damage from Irene occurred because of the tremendous fresh water flooding the storm's rains brought to much of New England. Irene is now rated as the most expensive Category 1 hurricane to hit the U.S. The previous record was held by Hurricane Agnes of 1972, whose floods did $11.8 billion in damage in the Northeast. NOAA also announced that the name Irene had been retired from the list of active hurricane names. Irene was the only named retired in 2011, and was the 76th name to be retired since 1954. The name Irene was replaced with Irma, which is next scheduled be used in 2017.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
At last month's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Paul Ruscher of Florida State University explained how Irene's storm surge came within 8 inches of flooding New York City's subway system, which would have caused devastating damage. At the current global rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year, a repeat of Irene 65 years from now would be capable of flooding the subway system, if no action is taken. Since sea level rise is expected to accelerate as the planet warms in coming decades, an Irene-type storm surge would likely be capable of flooding the NYC subway system much sooner than that. To read more about New York City's vulnerability, see Andrew Freedman's analysis at Climate Central, Climate Change Could Cripple New York’s Transportation, or my November 2011 blog post, Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster.
Jeff Masters
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It has hurricane alice forming on june 24 and it was actually in two calendar years, give me a cookie
Represent youngest one on te blog
blog1932comment0 Jeff Masters: The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD.
A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period.
[On the other hand, they didn't report finding evidence of beach ridges/etc on the other coasts. Such unidirectionality is more suggestive of tsunami-induced ridge-marking/building than that which would be produced by normal wave-action over ice-free waters. Continuing with Dr.Masters' writings...]
Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3degreesC higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.
However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton...
[I would expect that conditions leading to a totally ice-free ArcticOcean would also lead to a sufficient albedo change to cause oceanicly&atmosphericly-induced melting of seabed&land-based ice-sheets... and the rise in sea-level that would cause.
But offhand, I can't think of any factor other than colder-than-survivable seawater topped by year-around sea-ice barriers that would prevent the free migration of plankton through the ArcticOcean.]
This guy dosent believe we will see only a few hurricanes
The Hurricane Circuit
Posted on May 1, 2012 by adminB
Reply
I received an interesting email about my hurricane outlook for this summer asking about this hurricane season. I’m flattered by people asking me this. I will never post a blue print about my forecast, but I will tell you it will be above normal, that’s my view. From my perspective, more direct hits and impacts along the east coast and the Gulf. You have to correlate a couple of things when it comes to forecasting a hit at which I will not mention on this page. The question is the availability of information and actual data. It stems down to that if this answers the questions to my forecasting an ”almost” flawless six years but, there is a whole culture of people forecasting weather now, but not many do what I do. I’d be the last person to deny I’m part of that culture!…. America leads the way with computer technology at which I don’t fully trust when it comes to predicting hurricanes. For me, I started keeping books about hurricanes at a early age and started learning each historical hurricane. I thought by doing this, this would make me learn quicker and it did. You have to study. This is the key for learning. I did study tracks of powerful hurricanes and learned what weather patterns triggered these storms….What I learned was that patterns were not the key in predicting a busy hurricane season. I also learned that analog years is the same–nothing. History doesn’t always repeat itself…. For god sakes, Long Island is “supposed” to be hit by a hurricane every ten years! How long has it been? These are just one of the things that bother me and I’ll explain more about this to some extent..What I will say is that I have a hot circuit inside me that understands hurricanes, starting young for me and I think everybody has this potential, just in different fields..Be seeing you.
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a reply
Projected Hits And Impacts
Posted on April 24, 2012 by adminB
1
What we will see is a year of hurricane hits and the number could be staggering. Impacts will be impressive along the east coast. My main concern for this season will be the Gulf and the west coast of Florida for mid- summer. Typically, Cape Verde storms/hurricanes take a swing north before hitting the coast—not this year. The pattern we’ve been seeing will break, but at the worst time, during the peak of hurricane season… More about this later next week. Be seeing you.
2005 - 5 storms
1997 - 4 storms
2008 - 3 storms
Oddly, 2004, a devastating year only had 1 storm form on July 31.
1954- I see Alice Twice
What about 1966 and 1995?
Russia's military threatens preemptive strike if NATO goes ahead with missile plan
And what is odd about the dates on Alice that you see twice. Very good, Grasshopper. I will give you a hint. It has only happened once since 1851
1995 only had 2 and in 1966 I was out of the country but I think they had 4.
Very good,nr.
Two Alice's are correctly listed in 1954, except the second one still says June.
Darn. I was beat to it.
and you remember every one of them...
Yeah, about what I expected.
"The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the
year"
So somewhere between true neutral and weak el nino from ASO forwards.
This is quite different from the pre-season hurricane forecasts.
June 1 is the big day for forecasts and we'll see how this patterns evolve this month, but it looks like the first half to 2/3rds of the season will actually be neutral conditions.
I'd say 15 to 16 named Atlantic systems.
Excellent. How come no one ever noticed that before.
Actually, Alice is the only storm to be named twice in one year. Actually there was no A named storm in 1955 because they used Alice twice in 1954 and posted both on the records as being in June when actually Alice formed in June and another storm formed on December 30, 1954, also called Alice,which ended on January 6, 1955.
Ok, you are going by dissipation month, I was going by formation month.
Yes, I agree. I am not being funny, but it is what I have maintained all long. I do not believe it will be a below average season.
Either way, I agree.
Tornado vortex signature n of abilene.
I just read this blind off the NWS radar and thought it looked tornadic, so I check the other system and sure enough it has 79vil and a vortex signature.
June 25 -July 15
Yes, and I also remember before the split of North Carolina and South Carolina and remember when it was just called the Carolinas.
OK, Kori. Did you ever notice 1955 did not have an A name?
Pretty sure a Tornado Warning is upcoming.Olive oil?
Yeah it did, Alice. ;)
The storm was shared between 1954 and 1955 because it spawned two calendar years.
That's why there are two Alice's.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
848 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 843 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WEINERT...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF HASKELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
NUMEROUS VEHICLE DENTS...
MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME EXPOSED HOME AND VEHICLE WINDOWS WILL CRACK OR BREAK...
INJURY TO UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND ANIMALS...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEINERT BY 855 PM CDT...
IRBY BY 920 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF RULE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&
LAT...LON 3313 9947 3313 9948 3318 9982 3337 9983
3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 270DEG 20KT 3325 9973
$$
They all have low tax rates and high corruption. An issue which has been coming up at the EU meetings with Germany. There will elections coming up soon in France and Greece which may change the political spectrum. Anything else you want to know?
Sure, now that you read all of our answers.
(How come you never noticed the mistake before in Unisys? You seem to notice everything else, like my mistake in posting images. :))
Alice 1954–1955 December 30–January 6
Zeta 2005–2006 December 30–January 7
I don't use Unisys :P
Youth unemployment rates well over 20%!
There has already been a sighted tornado south of Wayland and it's probably still on the ground.
Yes? Many times.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
848 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
IAC087-115-183-040200-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120504T0200Z/
WASHINGTON IA-LOUISA IA-HENRY IA-
848 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
HENRY...WEST CENTRAL LOUISA AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
AT 844 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO NEAR 120TH STREET
SOUTH OF WAYLAND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
WAYLAND...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OLDS AROUND 855 PM CDT...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...WYMAN...AINSWORTH AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WINFIELD AROUND 900 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
&&
LAT...LON 4106 9157 4110 9168 4122 9172 4134 9146
4115 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 236DEG 17KT 4116 9163
$$
Good 98. Look up why the had two Alices. Makes interesting reading. Sorry, cookies are in reserve.
You are too funny, Kori!!
I would appreciate it because i am having trouble locating it... thanks
Here you go.
Not a storm going from December into January. Grasshopper. Why is it I know these things and you do not? :)
It was the only time a name was used twice in the same season, and did not use the A name for the next season. The used to reuse names in the olden days.
Thanks!!!!! :)
Noticed the HURDAT changes you talked about a week or so ago have been made official.
Link
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