Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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Starting over...

Good morning everybody.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 10% hatched tornado probability for northeast Nebraska, northeast Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and southeast South Dakota. At this time, an intense Mesoscale Convective System is exiting South Dakota and entering southern Minnesota. The fact that it is sustaining itself means that there is a plentiful amount of warm air advection reaching the state. As we head into this afternoon, conditions for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds could become even more significant as the low level jet strengthens and CAPE skyrockets to nearly 5000 j/kg. Hodographs across north Nebraska and south South Dakota at 00Z this evening are very favorable for rotating supercells and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also likely accompany these storms this afternoon before they go into an upscale Mesoscale Convective System with a higher risk for damaging winds than anything else.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32563
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Other countries have been planting trees? And, you make a good point. Action is necessary after overwelming evidence is discovered. Possible AGW does not fall into that category.


Yes, they have been along with switching to renewables, better recycling programs, better public transportation, etc. .

AGW does have overwhelming evidence. The amount of agreement in the scientific community is a testament to that fact.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting weatherh98:


Insurance companies


Who pays the insurance company premiums?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Mine is July 29 yours?

22.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32563
551. hurricanehunter27
3:45 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not 15 until July.
Mine is July 29 yours?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
550. Xyrus2000
3:44 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:



You mean you would subject me to watching an afternoon of CSPAN?? *snoooore*

I was kinda hoping you would be so kind to go out of your way to provide a link, reference, citation, a source of some kind to back up your above, unsubstantiated, blanket statement.

But if time is against you, no worries. I can always flip back and forth between the discover channel and CSPAN. *bites tongue*



What unsubstantiated claims? What kind of references are you looking for exactly? Do you want peer-reviewed articles or will some links to wikipedia suffice?

It's not that hard to put in "ozone hole" or "history of tobacco" or "acid rain" in Google and get a bunch of links to the controversies that surrounded those topics, but if that is what you want I can provide them for you.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
549. weatherh98
3:43 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not 15 until July.


I was close enough hhahaha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
548. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:39 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I know this is random but how old are you I know ta13 is now 15 I'm 14 jw


And wheres the next system that's bringing in the next round of bad severe wx

I'm not 15 until July.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32563
547. MAweatherboy1
3:34 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
The NWS has been giving great descriptions of the hail size evolution of this storm. Earlier it was hen egg size, then golf ball, and now:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PIPESTONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN MOODY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1024 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE
HAIL
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLMAN...OR 18
MILES EAST OF MADISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TRENT AND EGAN AROUND 1030 AM CDT...
FLANDREAU AROUND 1035 AM CDT...
JASPER AROUND 1050 AM CDT...
PIPESTONE AND PIPESTONE NATIONAL MONUMENT AROUND 1055 AM CDT...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE IHLEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4409 9631 4385 9630 4385 9688 4402 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 261DEG 34KT 4392 9672
WIND...HAIL <58MPH 1.50IN

$$

HANKO
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
546. Xyrus2000
3:34 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Dr. Gray of Colorado St. (to name just one) is not a credible scientist?


Not in the realms of climate science. Since he has yet to publish any papers discrediting the theory of AGW, he has resorted to conspiracy theories based on a "secret" push by climate scientists to establish a one world government.

His tropical research is very well regarded, but in the realms of climate science he doesn't have any scientific credibility.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
545. weatherh98
3:32 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Man struck by lightning in scrotum

A Spanish man has survived an unusual ordeal after being struck by lightning in the scrotum.

The 53-year-old man was walking down a street in Madrid when the lightning struck his scrotum through his pants, Spain's El Mondo newspaper reports.

The bolt is believed to have travelled down one of his legs and foot and right through to the footpath before he lost consciousness.

The man's son called paramedics who treated him for burns to his scrotum and feet.

Doctors at the Hospital de la Paz where the man was treated said his heart and brain functions were not affected by the lightning.


Poor guy
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
544. MAweatherboy1
3:31 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I know this is random but how old are you I know ta13 is now 15 I'm 14 jw


And wheres the next system that's bringing in the next round of bad severe wx

I'm 16.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
543. hydrus
3:31 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I liked SPL, he just struggled to control himself sometimes and could get a little overly feisty. The difference between us is that he denies global warming completely because he feels God would not let it happen while I feel that global warming is happening even though I still believe in God.
I liked him too. He ran afoul admin by calling the person who banned him a pathetic miscreant. He could have used a little more restraint.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21869
542. weatherh98
3:30 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I liked SPL, he just struggled to control himself sometimes and could get a little overly feisty. The difference between us is that he denies global warming completely because he feels God would not let it happen while I feel that global warming is happening even though I still believe in God.


I know this is random but how old are you I know ta13 is now 15 I'm 14 jw


And wheres the next system that's bringing in the next round of bad severe wx
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
541. AussieStorm
3:29 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Man struck by lightning in scrotum

A Spanish man has survived an unusual ordeal after being struck by lightning in the scrotum.

The 53-year-old man was walking down a street in Madrid when the lightning struck his scrotum through his pants, Spain's El Mondo newspaper reports.

The bolt is believed to have travelled down one of his legs and foot and right through to the footpath before he lost consciousness.

The man's son called paramedics who treated him for burns to his scrotum and feet.

Doctors at the Hospital de la Paz where the man was treated said his heart and brain functions were not affected by the lightning.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
539. weatherh98
3:27 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Can you clarify your question? I'm not sure what you're asking here.


Who are you saying is "bad" for electing certain people? Do you have a reference of a bad race?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
538. MAweatherboy1
3:27 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:



You mean you would subject me to watching an afternoon of CSPAN?? *snoooore*

I was kinda hoping you would be so kind to go out of your way to provide a link, reference, citation, a source of some kind to back up your above, unsubstantiated, blanket statement.

But if time is against you, no worries. I can always flip back and forth between the discover channel and CSPAN. *bites tongue*


I like to put CSPAN on during those nights when I'm struggling to fall asleep... It does the job well, and fast too!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
537. hydrus
3:27 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
This is 84 hours out. This system will produce some severe weather.. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY REGION TO
MID-SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED DAY-3...FEATURING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
INTERIOR PAC NW. BY START OF PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER INVOF NERN ND/NWRN MN...WITH
TROUGH SWWD ACROSS WY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LS OR
ADJOINING PARTS OF NWRN ONT THROUGH PERIOD. RELATED SFC
FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE SHOULD CURVE EWD TO NEWD FROM IL OR INDIANA
ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION
DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD..THEN REACHING UPPER OH VALLEY...CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL/SRN TX BY 8/12Z. TX PORTION OF
FRONT MAY STALL BY THEN. AS WITH DAY-2...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING/POSITION OF COLD FRONT DURING
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING TO PERIOD OF MOST PROBABLE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN BOTH NEAR-FRONTAL REGIMES DISCUSSED BELOW.

MEANWHILE...PROGS ARE IN GEN AGREEMENT REGARDING PRESENCE OF CLOSED
AND ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN CONUS BY
LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST
REGARDING TIMING AND SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE SIZE/PLACEMENT OF RELATED
CYCLONE ALOFT.

...OH VALLEY REGION TO MID-SOUTH...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN LINES OR CLUSTERS AGAIN SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC
COLD FRONTAL ZONE DAY-3...OFFERING DAMAGING WIND AND OCNL LARGE
HAIL. LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES INDICATES
PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER. LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
INCREASE FROM NE-SW...WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BUOYANCY ACCORDINGLY WILL INCREASE FROM
NE-SW...BUT WITH INCREASE IN CINH AND DECREASE IN FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST PARAMETRIC OVERLAPS SHOULD BE FROM LOWER MS
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS NEWD TO PORTIONS OH/INDIANA.
RELATIVELY DENSE CONCENTRATIONS OF CONVECTIVE/SVR POTENTIAL ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...WHICH IS NECESSARILY BROAD-BRUSHED ATTM
DUE TO PROGNOSTIC UNCERTAINTY...AND SUBJECT TO FUTURE LATERAL
SHIFTING.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21869
536. MAweatherboy1
3:26 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


I think SPLBeater has a lot to do with that. What you just said got overshadowed 200 times from his "God made the world warm" argument a while back.

I liked SPL, he just struggled to control himself sometimes and could get a little overly feisty. The difference between us is that he denies global warming completely because he feels God would not let it happen while I feel that global warming is happening even though I still believe in God.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
535. weatherh98
3:25 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:



You mean you would subject me to watching an afternoon of CSPAN?? *snoooore*

I was kinda hoping you would be so kind to go out of your way to provide a link, reference, citation, a source of some kind to back up your above, unsubstantiated, blanket statement.

But if time is against you, no worries. I can always flip back and forth between the discover channel and CSPAN. *bites tongue*


Discovery is where it's at:) however the science channel only has 1 or 2 new shows and they aren't very good
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
534. Xyrus2000
3:23 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Who are you putting down exactly about who one votes for? Maybe a reference?


Can you clarify your question? I'm not sure what you're asking here.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
533. AussieStorm
3:22 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Is your country taking direct action but "donating" money to the UN?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
532. weatherh98
3:21 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I feel we may be setting up for a severe weather bust this afternoon/evening... There's a lot of convective activity in the 10% hatched area right now... This will probably limit storm development today.

(trying to steer us back into weather a little)


Yes well unless the sun were to start shining now
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
531. DoctorDave1
3:19 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, it says a lot about the people who elect those governments, the politicians, and the corporate interests that influence them.

Maybe you're to young to remember, but it took years to decades for any actions to be taken on pollution, ozone depletion, acid rain, asbestos, etc. despite overwhelming evidence of the damage being caused.

BTW, most developed nations have taken steps. That means little though when the world's largest contributors don't follow suit.


Other countries have been planting trees? And, you make a good point. Action is necessary after overwelming evidence is discovered. Possible AGW does not fall into that category.
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
530. yqt1001
3:19 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not an atheist. I also believe in global warming. Somehow a lot of people on here don't seem to get the concept that if you believe in God you can still believe in global warming. Way too much bickering this morning. Everyone has a right to their beliefs and opinions, that's why this country is great.



I think SPLBeater has a lot to do with that. What you just said got overshadowed 200 times from his "God made the world warm" argument a while back.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
528. MAweatherboy1
3:17 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
I feel we may be setting up for a severe weather bust this afternoon/evening... There's a lot of convective activity in the 10% hatched area right now... This will probably limit storm development today.

(trying to steer us back into weather a little)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
527. bappit
3:16 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
I appreciate honesty, but I don't respect it. Honesty should be a given.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6107
525. Xyrus2000
3:15 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:

Could you me proof of that Xyrus


Certainly. You can look for CSPAN videos of congressional testimonies about climate science (or you can wait for the next one). It's pretty sad.

Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
523. DoctorDave1
3:13 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting MahFL:


Who is going to pay for all those trees to be planted ?


How about stimulus money?
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
522. ScottLincoln
3:13 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Look, I'm not going to be "pushed around" like so many on this blog by the AGW alarmists. I am a certified met from an accredited university and have been studying weather for over 20 years. There just isn't enough info, nor will there ever be enough in my lifetime to lead me to believe that the climate is changing due to man's activity. You can throw me in the pile of TV mets who should be cramming that AGW crap down my viewers throats. Not happenin' here, nor will it ever.

Link


Then don't be "pushed around." Do what you wish, I dont care. But it doesn't change the fact that you are just plain wrong, and will continue to be wrong, and are doing a massive disservice to your "met certification" and all of the physics knowledge it should have brought with it.

You have again just re-iterated what it means to not be a scientist, but instead be a ideologue who has only faith. At least you admit it so freely, which I respect.

Quoting DoctorDave1:


Dr. Gray of Colorado St. (to name just one) is not a credible scientist?


Not a credible climate scientist, no. He's getting past his prime, and isn't keeping up on the science of the issue.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3247
521. MAweatherboy1
3:12 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I would argue that we are all atheists. I just happen to believe in one fewer gods than most people. When the followers of those religions understand why they dismiss all other possible gods, they will understand why I dismiss theirs.

--Shamelessly modified from a quote by Stephen Roberts

I'm not an atheist. I also believe in global warming. Somehow a lot of people on here don't seem to get the concept that if you believe in God you can still believe in global warming. Way too much bickering this morning. Everyone has a right to their beliefs and opinions, that's why this country is great.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
519. DoctorDave1
3:10 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
It seems like you're missing most of the basics of the carbon cycle. See, there's always been a more or less even balance between the amount of CO2 emitted and the amount absorbed. Over the past 150 years or so, we (humans) have seriously upset that balance by emitting tens of billions of tons more CO2 into the environment each year than those natural processes are capable of handling. That CO2 doesn't go away; it accumulates. And as it accumulates, it causes heating--heating which, by the way, causes even more water vapor to be in the air, yet another feedback effect adding to the warmth.

So far as "global temps being flat for 10 years", that's not quite so. Several peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that, once the effects of natural variations are taken out, CO2-induced warming has continued to increase. This first graph shows the departure from global average temperature since 1979 using the raw data of the 3 surface temperature records (GISS, NCDC, CRU) and the two satellite records (RSS, UAH) (courtesy ClimateProgress.org and the Washington Post):

Hot, hot, hot

...and this second shows the true warming signal:

Hot, hot, hot

You'll doubtless notice the lack of any "being flat".

AGW is real, it's happening, it's worsening, and we humans are likely mostly to blame. Those four facts are no longer even debated among credible scientists.


Dr. Gray of Colorado St. (to name just one) is not a credible scientist?
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
518. hydrus
3:09 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


sad situation, unfortunately i get bullied occasionally because im so big but at least with me i can protecct myself(6 foot 3 and 185, i just made fourteen)







good morning
You are exceptionally tall and big for your age. I was very short until I was 16 years old, then I finally grew to 5 ft 10 inches and 190 lbs. I was ridiculed because I was the shortest kid in grades 7 thru 9. It was payback time when tenth rolled around. and I did seek and acquire retribution for what some of them did to me. There might be another interesting gulf low in a week..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21869
517. ScottLincoln
3:09 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


as a suggestion, maybe he is saying that we dont know EXACT daily temperatures or monthly for that matter. We have an idea over years


We would never be able to know exactly daily temperatures from periods that long ago. And the important thing is... we dont need to know. Exact daily temperatures are weather, not climate, and they would serve no purpose other than to provide for fuel for the cherry-picking fire of denialism. They'd start digging for hurricanes and heatwaves and this and that in all sorts of those reports in some attempt to cherry pick what they want to see, instead of looking at the overall statistics and the causes behind the changes.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3247
516. weatherh98
3:09 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:



You'll be alright. Keep your head high and virtues of honesty, kindness, and respect close to you.

My experience with bullies is that they may think they're cream of the crop is their glory days, but the shock is always the greatest (and sometimes most fulfilling) when you get a chance to see their lives 10 or 20 years later.

Thank you!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
515. MahFL
3:08 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning everyone, beautiful day shaping up here in sunny Florida, have a great weekend folks!..


Define "beautiful".
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3738
514. DoctorDave1
3:06 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
tree's and Global Warming, excellent site here with lots of Info..plant a tree today, I myself have planted 5 over the years ..................


Me, too.
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
513. Xyrus2000
3:06 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Unfortunately that is how it goes sometimes. Some freedom-loving, patriotic folk see an atheist as an enemy; not someone who is merely using their freedom in a different way. I've found many times that those preaching the loudest are usually are with the worst ethics/morals.


I would argue that we are all atheists. I just happen to believe in one fewer gods than most people. When the followers of those religions understand why they dismiss all other possible gods, they will understand why I dismiss theirs.

--Shamelessly modified from a quote by Stephen Roberts
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
510. weatherh98
3:01 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, it says a lot about the people who elect those governments, the politicians, and the corporate interests that influence them.

Maybe you're to young to remember, but it took years to decades for any actions to be taken on pollution, ozone depletion, acid rain, asbestos, etc. despite overwhelming evidence of the damage being caused.

BTW, most developed nations have taken steps. That means little though when the world's largest contributors don't follow suit.


Who are you putting down exactly about who one votes for? Maybe a reference?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
509. Xandra
3:01 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
507. Xyrus2000
2:55 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.


No, it says a lot about the people who elect those governments, the politicians, and the corporate interests that influence them.

Maybe you're to young to remember, but it took years to decades for any actions to be taken on pollution, ozone depletion, acid rain, asbestos, etc. despite overwhelming evidence of the damage being caused.

BTW, most developed nations have taken steps. That means little though when the world's largest contributors don't follow suit.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
506. Chucktown
2:54 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I would suggest that you look up each of the different temperature records if you are interested in their source. Most of them are satellite-derived which would not have issues with the urban heat island effect (as you implied).

So, what you are saying is that your belief is faith-based in nature, not scientific? Un-wavering beliefs regardless of facts to the contrary is one of the hallmarks of bigotry.


Temperature reconstructions exist from periods before human observations began. They are actual vital to much of our current understanding of physics, climate, and climate change. This is something that you could easily look up.

Doing these things (aka "fact checking" and/or "learning") would require an effort on your part, which would probably violate your personal "I will never believe" clause in a very severe way.


Look, I'm not going to be "pushed around" like so many on this blog by the AGW alarmists. I am a certified met from an accredited university and have been studying weather for over 20 years. There just isn't enough info, nor will there ever be enough in my lifetime to lead me to believe that the climate is changing due to man's activity. You can throw me in the pile of TV mets who should be cramming that AGW crap down my viewers throats. Not happenin' here, nor will it ever.

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
505. goosegirl1
2:53 PM GMT on May 05, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You're a good mama. It can't be easy for either of you. Tell her to hang in there.


Thanks, I will :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1238

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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