Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Sangria:


Really?? You are going to bash him because he is a member on more than one site? What a juvenile and hostile attitude to take. I am glad that this is pre-season, and that a lot of "non-regulars" did not read your comment.


Aren't we combining with them very soon?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Sangria:


Really?? You are going to bash him because he is a member on more than one site? What a juvenile and hostile attitude to take. I am glad that this is pre-season, and that a lot of "non-regulars" did not read your comment.


No, he's going to bash him because he was ranting about people commenting on climate change, the actual topic of the blog post by Dr. Masters, instead of giving minute-by-minute rundowns of the weather exactly where he wanted it at that exact point in time. Meanwhile, local officials and even just a quick check of weather.gov could have given him the information he sought, much quicker and more official.
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The weather for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow is forecasted to be very warm with possible showers.

Cosmic, I will root for Gemnologist for your friends. Although I do not bet on the races, my dad retired from Churchill Downs as the oldest employee ever. He was 86. Unfortunately, he passed at 88. He had a good life. He loved his job and he loved the horses!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lets just add some facial characteristics and call it a wolf..



Strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength Of the pack is the wolf

Saint Paul's forevermore
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Lets just add some facial characteristics and call it a wolf..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting Sangria:


I moved to FL six years ago, and each year, in my opinion, has been completely different, in reference to weather.....all seasons, each year have brought different weather to my area in Pasco county. I lived in central TX for over 20 years, prior to my move, and the weather was pretty predictable there.....(of course we had droughts and floods both, but that was a given) Just from my personal observation, I have not seen anything here that shows a trend....just an example, I went through 2 face cords of firewood last year, and only had a handful of fires this year.


When I was growing up the weather was very predictable here too. Not so much anymore..
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHZ081-088-050015-
ADAMS OH-SCIOTO OH-
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO AND
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 745 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STATE
ROUTE 348 AT STATE ROUTE 125...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES...INCLUDING BLUE
CREEK...WAMSLEY...TURKEY CREEK LAKE AND LOMBARDSVILLE.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3883 8308 3862 8314 3872 8353 3887 8349

$$
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHC041-045-049-073-089-097-129-159-050300-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.Y.0057.120504T2355Z-120505T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FRANKLIN OH-HOCKING OH-LICKING OH-MADISON OH-
PICKAWAY OH-UNION OH-
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN HOCKING COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
LICKING COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHERN PICKAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

* AT 753 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR.

* MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED STREETS...HIGHWAYS
AND UNDERPASSES WILL OCCUR. IN ADDITION...FARMLAND NEAR CREEKS...
STREAMS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...BEXLEY...COLUMBUS...
DELAWARE...DUBLIN...GAHANNA...GRANVILLE...GROVE CITY...HEATH...
HILLIARD...JEFFERSON...LANCASTER AND LONDON.

IN ADDITION...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN...ALEXANDRIA...ALUM
CREEK STATE PARK...AMANDA...AMITY...BELLEPOINT...BIG PLAIN...
BLACKLICK ESTATES AND BRICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS AREAS WHERE
WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 8362 4045 8324 4042 8293 4036 8292
4035 8275 4028 8274 4024 8218 3995 8219
3994 8223 3991 8224 3993 8246 3984 8247
3983 8239 3975 8240 3974 8236 3960 8237
3960 8226 3956 8225 3955 8215 3954 8216

$$
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Quoting pcbhere:
Cosmic, YAY! Thank you for responding. I was going to change my avatar to "Casper", the friendly, invisible ghost. I really thought no one could see my posts.

Anyhow, I am glad to know that your friends are well, I hope that they are having a great time at the Derby.
Thank you. They are having a fine time. It's a friendly fun city and event. Now, if Gemologist wins the Derby they'll be winners too.
.
.
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Sea Level Rise Maps..Link
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Cosmic, YAY! Thank you for responding. I was going to change my avatar to "Casper", the friendly, invisible ghost. I really thought no one could see my posts.

Anyhow, I am glad to know that your friends are well, I hope that they are having a great time at the Derby.
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The hail core on the supercell near the Texas/Oklahoma border is ridiculous.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting charlottefl:
Our weather patterns here in FL have dramatically changed over the last 5 years or so. If you don't pay careful attention to the weather it may not seems like it because at first it was subtle. Within the past few years though it's clear something is disrupting those "normal" patterns we're used to seeing.


I moved to FL six years ago, and each year, in my opinion, has been completely different, in reference to weather.....all seasons, each year have brought different weather to my area in Pasco county. I lived in central TX for over 20 years, prior to my move, and the weather was pretty predictable there.....(of course we had droughts and floods both, but that was a given) Just from my personal observation, I have not seen anything here that shows a trend....just an example, I went through 2 face cords of firewood last year, and only had a handful of fires this year.
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from twitter

Bettes ā€¸ @TWCMikeBettes

Funnel 5 miles west of ericson, NE 10 minutes ago. Following same storm east on hey 91
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Really Dr. Masters?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/cei/01 -12
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Cosmic Events, I live in Louisville and I did respond to you regarding the weather. Since I do not post much, and I never get any replies regarding my posts, I just figured I might be blocked? I dunno!
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Thanks for nothing to the blog for the lack of an answer to my question in post #118 regarding the weather. I guess it went unnoticed in the global warming debate posts around it. I had friends at Churchill Downs today who were evacuated. Things were fine in the end. I handled things on my own and gave them the correct info 1 1/2 hours before the local officials. I got more immediate answers to the situation from other sites.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:


1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is
31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average
for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20%uFFFDN, 60-88%uFFFDW)


1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)


okay thanks
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Quoting ncstorm:


What was CSU prediction last year? curious to see how accurate they were?

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:


1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is
31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average
for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20%uFFFDN, 60-88%uFFFDW)


1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
How Climate change will affect Cities..there is a link on the affects for the keys and Miami in here..interesting reading.............Link
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Climate Change and the South East USA.....this from FSU...Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Writing up my Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and decided to steal CSU's landfall probability predictor.

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 3-4-5) LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 62% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast - 23% (average for last century is 31%)
3) U.S. Gulf Coast - 42% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected near average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean Sea


What was CSU prediction last year? curious to see how accurate they were?
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

MNC043-047-042315-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-120504T2315Z/
FARIBAULT MN-FREEBORN MN-
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN FREEBORN AND
SOUTHEASTERN FARIBAULT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
KIESTER....WITH SOME TREE DAMAGE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CITY.



LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONGER...ALDEN...TWIN LAKES...WALTERS AND MANSFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 4365 9387 4377 9349 4352 9338 4349 9360
4350 9378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 249DEG 18KT 4358 9367

$$

BAP
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7838
Southern South Dakota is the place to be for tornadoes tomorrow evening. EHI values and instability values are extreme (near 12 m2/s2 5000 j/kg, respectively) but there is little in the way of low level wind shear. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% tornado probability issued.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Yup, this is turning into wind event now. 40-60 mph winds about to hit Smithfield, NC but I'm a rook so I'm not sure.
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Interesting article here, it seems that the more the earth warms..the bigger the snowstorms will get?..hope this link works, i havent mastered that yet..........Link
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw things that way, too before my cataract surgery.
Quoting EugeneTillman:



My eyes hurt.
Their is a server storm going on to the south of the city luckily with this being rush hour in all.Grothar I may have to get that surgery soon to XD.
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Quoting Grothar:


I have very vivid memories of South Florida in the late 1940's on. While we did live in Europe many different times, for many years, I was here and on Long Island often. We always kept a home in both places. Even the weather is totally different on Long Island today. Ask anyone who has lived there for a long time. It is nothing like we remember it.

Heading out to work today, I was talking to the native Spanish builders about how odd it was we had, had only 4 days of rain over the period from April 2011 to March 2012,( nearly 12 months,) and now it seemed to rain all the the time on most days!
A month ago the ground was parched like a desert with no greenery about, now after endless days of rain and showers we are heading for jungle conditions!
So under leaden grey skies and heavy showers, we tried to work on a roof, finally beaten off by storms we agreed that the weather was "loco,"
Its not that I am biased! Its just that the evidence points to:- "Times they are a changing, As Bod Dylan once wrote in a song!"
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Quoting tampahurricane:
What was the name of that major Hospital in Greensburg. I just cant remember the name of it.


It was the Kiowa something. I just saw it on TV a few weeks ago. My mind isn't what it used to be.
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Well, I'm not sure about the rotation now... the couplet on the radar is too one sided to show rotation so I think it's just the strong winds showing up. But I did see small funnel going over my house.
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What is up with cells with rotations going over my area this week? A cell that had small funnel rotating in sky just went over me in Johnston County. The velocity radar is showing weak rotation over us here in JoCo... and we had a tornado warning just two night ago. SMH.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it's has been trying to rain here all day but hasn't done so.Their are clearly storm clouds outside right now with sunshine..One half of the sky is a darkish blue gray while the other side is blue sunny skies :D.


I saw things that way, too before my cataract surgery.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Some?   I'd say the majority of Humanity does this on a constant basis.  Look at our history as a species.  It's everywhere on every level of society.  Nothing but blood and lust of power with no regards but to ones self. IMO humanity will eventually destroy itself one way or another.  Too much evil in this world and too little good to counter it.  I pray I am wrong, but what has humanity ever done to make us believe any different?  No matter how large the rise, its always the minority in the grand scheme of things.



It often seems that way and you have ever reason to be cynical considering what has happened in the world recently. Life and survival have always been a balancing act for any species. Humans are no different.

When people say how did the world create a Hitler, a Stalin and a Tojo at the same time. I often remind them that the same generation gave us a Roosevelt, Churchill and an Eisenhower and a Marshall.

With all the billions of humans that have existed, so few had actually had an influence on our existence that they can actually be named.

All we are required to do is notice the difference and act accordingly. Never lose faith in humanity. We are all we have.

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Well it's has been trying to rain here all day but hasn't done so.Their are clearly storm clouds outside right now with sunshine..One half of the sky is a darkish blue gray while the other side is blue sunny skies :D.
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What was the name of that major Hospital in Greensburg. I just cant remember the name of it.
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Also this was the warmest month on record where the Equatorial region was cooler than normal. Between 20N and 20S, the anomaly was -.119C. The warmest previous month with a cooler than normal Equatorial region was November 2010 at .317C. The 20N-20S anomaly was -0.068C that monthh.

And the anomaly from 20N to 82.5N was the second highest of any month, checking in at 0.918C. The current record is 0.976 from August 2010, probably aided by the record-breaking Eastern European heat wave and the very warm U.S. summer that year.

Link
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Lake Michigan put out one heck a lake breeze today.  Unreal.  That's going to put a dent into any MCS that tracks that way.  It'll push south of it.


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The effects of the dying Nina already being felt. RSS up to .333C above normal for April. Warmest month since September 2010. I can only imagine what this figure would jump to if we get a moderate or strong Nino.

Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The I-95 stoplight is way before my time. I do remember when Sawgrass Mall was being plotted out in the middle of nowhere, and when there were a million people asking why I-75 or the Sawgrass Expressway needed to be built, as "there won't be enough people to fill them up for another 50 years".

Right...


I have very vivid memories of South Florida in the late 1940's on. While we did live in Europe many different times, for many years, I was here and on Long Island often. We always kept a home in both places. Even the weather is totally different on Long Island today. Ask anyone who has lived there for a long time. It is nothing like we remember it.
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Louisville, Ky. storm has passed. The first woman jockey to ever win the Kentucky Oaks race, Anna Rose "Rosie" Napravnik, rode to victory on Believe You Can.

The Kentucky Oaks race is a race for fillies only. Congratulations Rosie and Believe You Can!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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