Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."
Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.
May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.
Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.
Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".
The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index
I'm good
larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nrc.gif
It was big and beautiful over Bolivar tonight. :)
So, if we have enough huge natural variations, won't that inevitably lead to climate change? I do love the moving human dot thing in San Francisco though. Having lived ther for almost 30 years, that's the kind of thing people do that's both artsy and actually convinces they are engaging in some kind of constructive activity. I wonder how much carbon was spewn into the atmosphere to get the "hundreds" of blue dot people there from Marin?
On an actual weather note, the SPC seems to be really muddled up lately. They had a forecast for at least a slight chance of severe storms in Alabama and we didn't have a single storm of any kind, even with a high of 90 and dewpoints near 70. Not sure what's happening with the SPC (or the atmosphere) but they've gone from being right on the money last year to starting to really blow forecasts this year.
The ground clutter on radar seems especially bad tonight. Maybe it's the full moon. :)
NE Nebraska, Iowa
Not by itself, no. In the absence of one or more forcings, natural variations should more or less even out.
Oh, I see. It's the "other" kind of quantum entanglement. lol
Hmmm...so I point out a mistake/ambiguity in your use of terms, and ask for evidence...and suddenly become "not worth" your time. Funny how often a request for evidence is met with the ol' "not worth the time" answer. I'm sure that there's a very good reason for that. ;^D
You are throwing around one new term, "objective reality" and now present truth without the "absolute" in front of it. Do you know what you are trying to discuss? I'm perfectly willing to wait until you decide. Heck, we might even be in agreement on the topic you want to discuss...whatever it is.
That sorta depends on what it is science is supposed to do. If science is the search for absolute truth, then you're right, it is a vain endeavor.
However, the far more commonly agreed upon goal for science is to find naturalistic explanations for the phenomena which we encounter in nature. Under this definition, science has been wildly successful. Science is easily the most successful way to find things out that humans have so far devised.
So, let's just let science do what it does well, and leave it out of internal truths and our internal truths out of science, shall we? There's a good chap!
Wrong? Beats me.
But did you notice this, at the bottom of that page?
"Limitations: Statistics for the most recent period/season are computed from a fraction of the US which has data available at that time. Extreme percentage values can and will likely change as final quality controlled data become available and fill in the data gaps."
Limitations on absolute knowledge? Isn't that an oxymoron, like "honest politician?"
Kentucky
Tennessee
I know it's late where most mods live or they are doing better things but I hope some of these posts are cleaned up in the morning. This looks really bad especially for the flagship blog.
It's not a matter of opinion.
This is supposedly a science blog, and I have to put up with people who don't know the definition of truth, proof, or...science making false statements about morality, religion, or fundamental reality.
They hold beliefs which are:
1, fundamentally self contradictory.
2, fundamentally wrong in any objective context
3, they lied about their own prior statements as well as my prior statements
4, etc.
Oh yes, those words exist in language for a reason, because they happen to fit some people, unfortunately.
As to your above displays, believe what you want to. Be your faith. Live your faith. But I have to say, it has been a while since I've seen, on this blog, such a stark lack of humility mixed with naked contempt for the complex web of human experiences and paths.
Good night. (as to the storms, sadly no storms, so no rain. maybe tomorrow.)
A rare white buffalo calf, sacred to the Lakota Sioux, was found mutilated and skinned on the Lakota Buffalo Ranch northeast of Dallas,Texas. The next day, the calf's mother was found dead as well, just weeks after the calf's father was fatally struck by lightning.
Lightning Medicine Cloud was about to celebrate its first birthday during a powwow on May 12.
(Oddly related in both timing and subject)
UnitedNations special investigator on human rights of indigenous peoples, James Anaya submitted his report recommending that the US must return control of sacred lands back to NativeAmericans.
A TORNADO has torn through an area northeast of Tokyo, injuring at least 30 people and destroying dozens of homes.
Authorities say the tornado struck today in the city of Tsukuba, 60 kilometres from the capital.
Firefighters and helicopter medical teams rushed to the area.
Thirty to 50 homes have been destroyed.
TV footage screened by Japan's national broadcaster, NHK, shows rows of houses that have lost roofs and apartment blocks with smashed balconies and shattered windows.
Tornadoes are relatively rare in the Tokyo area.
I'd recommend using ModifyComments to delete* your postings on the topic.
It ain't as if getting banned for the use of immoderate language is gonna prove a point.
* Ya hafta leave one character such as . or * to delete the rest.
Deleting then leaving it blank won't let the editing function work.
1)One member came on to this site wishing for help on a weather event. He received only one piece but not a forecast or an interpretation ..Elsewhere people got him the official warning and others gave their interpretation.(I will not mention the site name for fear of a permaban as only some can mention the site ). Personally as the cane season is only a little bit away I am glad that people somewhere on the internet are willing to try and help ,and give their take on what will happen of course official weather sites in particular government sites are the ones to be given most creditability but when you live in an isolated area ,advanced planning is necessary as extra supplies and flood preparations are needed even where I live that only gets extropical storms.
2)Is there some rule here that you can’t be a member of more than one weather site ? As I then would be barred from here as a weather follower I belong to more than one site …
3) I personally believe that religion and for that matter Climate Change should be left at the door of a main weather blog .Go create your own blog and give your views there (Climate change is covered on this site more than adequately in other parts of this site) .But the attacks that members gave each other on here yesterday were frankly out of order And I hope that all corresponding mail was kept as one member appeared to be ganged up on and he/she sadly lost their temper .
Before I shuffle off , In the past 6, in particular 5 1/2 years of that, mostly as a lurker I have learnt much From weather underground on interpreting models and differing types of weather .There used to be people on here that explained in great detail things that I wanted to know bur never had the courage to ask and I am grateful that this blog had been like that and had those bloggers ……
Wonder what were going to say when were all lined up getting ready for our turn in the ovens?
HOWEVER, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE NW. STAYED WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
AFTERNOON, AS THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO RIDGING LONGER AND DRIER AIR
HOLDING ON INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TUE-WED BOTH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
COME IN LINE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH FL ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES) AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISD-SCT TSTORMS. FOCUS
INTERIOR/ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO W-SW STEERING FLOW. SO INCREASED
POPS JUST A TAD INTERIOR/EAST TUE-WED.
BY THURSDAY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. GFS SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES LATE WEEK AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS, WITH SLIGHT
COOLING/LOWERING HUMIDITY ATLANTIC COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE
ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. EITHER WAY, CHANGES WOULD
BE RATHER SUBTLE.
A TORNADO ripped through eastern Japan today, killing a teenager, destroying dozens of houses and cutting power to about 20,000 households.
"A 14-year-old male died" as a result of the tornado, said a spokesman at the disaster headquarters of Tsukuba city in Ibaraki prefecture, about 60km northeast of Tokyo.
The exact cause of the death was not clear immediately, but the boy was among 12 people whom rescue workers rushed to hospitals after the twister, the spokesman said.
He added that 15 other people in the city also sought medical care for tornado-related injuries. "The figure is only a temporary tally. We believe the number (of injuries) could rise," he said.
The Tsukuba fire and emergency bureau said 30 to 50 houses were destroyed by the tornado, which struck about 12.45pm (1.45pm AEST).
A number of minor injuries were also reported in neighbouring Tochigi prefecture, and a swathe of eastern Japan was battered by strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain.
Television footage from Tsukuba showed houses swept from their foundations, overturned cars in muddy debris and fallen concrete power poles.
Aerial images showed possibly hundreds of houses and apartments with shattered glass windows, many of them with their roofs blown away.
"You could see the roaring column of wind rushing with sparks from live power lines inside it," a local man told national broadcaster NHK.
"Winds blew into my house. It took only a moment," a woman told NHK while cleaning up her home.
Japan's weather agency issued warnings for a wide region in the east of the country, urging people to seek shelter in case of sudden winds and thunder.
The severe winds caused a power outage for nearly 20,000 households in the region, a spokeswoman for Tokyo Electric Power said.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012
.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSRA MOVED THRU S CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT AND SCT TSRA
CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LIFT PROVIDED BY A COOL SURFACE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN REDEVELOPING
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TSTMS
WILL BE CAPBABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE
EXCEPT FOR THE TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ALTHOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL AROUND
16Z...AND REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AFTER 05Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WIND. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID-MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. MOST LIKELY AREA WILL
BE NORTH AND WEST OF I35. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING THROUGH TEXAS. LOOKS TO MORE THROUGH OUR CWA TUE/WED.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KICK OUT LATE WEEK AND MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
Just go look at a few pages from yesterday... You may never leave the NHC page :)
I fled to my IPOD. :)
Pouring down here this morning. An inch since dawn. Sky is just lightening up in the east now. Never got a look at the Moon last night.
Good weather for ducks....
Quack Quack
Are you a Nocturnal Duck?
They are best curried, you know!
:):))
Quack!!!
Stop... Hammer time
Here, Ducky Ducky....
Come and be plucked,
My family needs their food,
And you're about to be... er, slaughtered.
heheheheh
Shucked or de-feathered lol
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index