Rare Japanese tornado kills 1, injures 48
A rare strong tornado ripped through Ibaraki Prefecture in eastern Japan 30 miles northeast of Tokyo on Sunday, killing a teenage boy, injuring 48 people, and damaging or destroying 890 buildings. The tornado carved a path of destruction 15 km long and 500 meters wide, said the Japan Meteorological Agency. The tornado was given a preliminary rating of F-2, with winds of 113 - 157 mph (Japan uses the traditional "F" scale to rate tornadoes, not the "EF" scale used in the U.S.) The tornado also damaged homes in a housing complex in Tsukuba where 20 people from seven families from Fukushima Prefecture had evacuated following the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, caused by the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011. I bet those families are feeling disaster-prone!
Video 1. A rare tornado in Japan hits approximately 30 miles northeast of Tokyo on May 6, 2012.
Japan's tornado climatology
Tornadoes are rare in Japan, due to the fact the nation is surrounded by ocean, which tends to stabilize the air. Between 1961 - 2010, an average of 15 tornadoes per year hit Japan, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Only four F-3 tornadoes have hit Japan. The most recent F-3 hit on November 7, 2006, in the Wakasa area of Saroma, Hokkaido. Nine people died and 26 were injured. Over 30 buildings, including a dwelling, warehouses and temporary structures were damaged or destroyed. No violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes have been recorded in Japan, according the Japan Meteorological Agency, though other sources list a December, 1990 tornado as having been an F-4. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has more details in his latest post, Deadliest Tornadoes. Only one F-2 tornado hit Japan in both 2010 and 2011. A 1997 study published in the Journal of Climate found that Japanese tornadoes occurred most frequently in September and least frequently in March, and that typhoons were responsible for about 20% of all the tornadoes. A list of Asian tornado outbreaks maintained at Wikipedia lists the deadliest Japanese tornado as one on 6 September, 1881, which killed 16 people.
Figure 1. Distribution of tornadoes in Japan, 1961 - 2010. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It seems as if Texas will be getting some well needed rain
That's very sad condolences to the family members of the victim
Hopefully you'll have good weather for atleast the next couple of days pottery
--"Several warm periods across the contiguous U.S. during April brought the national average temperature to 55°F, 3.6°F above average, marking the third warmest April on record. These temperatures, when added with the first quarter and previous 11 months, calculate to the warmest year-to-date and 12-month periods since recordkeeping began in 1895."
--12 states experienced an April "Much Above Normal". An additional 26 were "Above Normal". The remainder were "Near Normal". None were "Below Normal"
--Interestingly enough: "Eight states — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia — had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures. However, these temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month."
--"The 12 month period beginning May 2011 through April 2012, which includes several warm episodes for the country — second hottest summer, fourth warmest winter, and warmest March — was the warmest consecutive May-April year-long period for the contiguous United States. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period and an additional 19 states were top ten warm. The 12-month running average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 55.7°F, 2.8°F above the 20th century average.
"
latest sst temps atlantic basin may 8 2012
That said... if it stays clear for a few more hours, the whole game is changed as the atmosphere will definitely become less stable. (the wildcard in all of this is RH)
The atlantic is really warming at the moment
Precipitation probability for a given region can be defined as:
POP = [chance that precip will form] x [coverage of precip]
A 70% chance of rainfall could mean that there is a 70% of storms forming, but if they form, they are expected to have 100% coverage. It could be reverse. Or a combination. As such, you can see why such forecasts are difficult to verify.
There are three ways I know of to try and verify probability forecasts such as those.
1) Round off the POP to a yes or no answer (ex: 0-49% = no; 50-100% = yes) and then verify over a long period of time in a binary way.
2) Create a running score where a higher score is bad and a lower score is good; points are defined as the difference between the POP and the verification. 50% POP forecast with rainfall occurring would yield 50 points, 30% POP forecast would yield 70 points. 100% POP forecast with no rainfall would yield 100 points. This is used often by various forecasting contests.
3) Accumulate statistics for each POP category (10%, 20%, 30%, etc) and see if the corresponding occurrence of rain was the same (10%, 20%, 30%, respectively).
Without doing something like that, it really isnt correct to call one of those forecasts "wrong" or "right."
Agreed
Winds also cool the sea.
Z4 73 dBZ 48,000 ft. 66 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 21 knots WNW (284)
Some context...?
In the last 14 days I have personally dumped about 1.4" of rain, which corresponds to the NWS value of 1-1.5 inches in the last 14 days; however most of that fell longer than 10 days ago. I watched 3 separate thunderstorm clusters on three consecutive days go poof right through me only to re-fire up to the east or south of us. It's weird here, we have a dirty factory plant to our west that has it's own mythical legacy of choking off any storm that flirts with us.
Past Precipitation IL NWS. I'm near Tuscola, south of Champaign.
Every storm seems to fight a very routine dry east wind here. I need to move... sigh
There's your spin the CMC was developing last week.
CAPE
Lifted index
However the atmosphere will become less stable
Ah, come one. That's too much work!
It really doesn't take very much intelligence to understand that 70% is less than 100%.
Neapo certainly demonstrates a large knowledge base and a fair amount of intelligence in his many posts, but this one was nothing more than slapping an underhand lob over the fence.
I'm a radar technician... The Columbus, MS NEXRAD is my baby!!
Couldn't agree more. This guy likes to come on here and cause problems all the time that's why I just ignore his post as it's just a matter of time before the ban hammer gets slammed down on him. Nea is infact one of the best posters on here and to insult him like this is uncalled for.
How about future Democrats? Big storms here on the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain yesterday...we could use some more....ferns are drying up
It's not just the main model anymore.
EDIT: As Levi just stated below.
No blogging during school young sir!
SSSHHHHHH!! Hydrus...
Oh don't worry, I'm not. ;)
North Carolina primaries are today so all schools get a half-day.
AAHHH i see well im sick today really not doing well
Hey TAwx13. Are the models still hinting on developement in the eastern pacific?
Active early and then taporing off as we had into el nino
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