U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2012

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The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.


Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.

Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Don't brag, we could be right back in drought next year at this time


Awe, it's ok, not bragging. Just marveling. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1083. nigel20
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
What a difference a year can make. Wonder what these totals will look like Monday?



Don't brag, we could be right back in drought next year at this time
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Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly. And before people start talking about we're just in the middle of a "natural" cycle... let me ask this: Where is the extra heat coming from? Solar radiance hasn't changed. The chart doesn't follow an 11-year cycle like the sun. Geothermal processes haven't changed. The heat has to be coming from somewhere... including a greater % of heat being retained by the planet itself.


HEAT ISLANDS!
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What a difference a year can make. Wonder what these totals will look like Monday?

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Quoting BobWallace:


It's also the case that during the last twelve months we've been experiencing La Nina conditions. The upwelling of cold deep sea water lowers global air temperature.

Interestingly, this was the hottest La Nina year on record. Take away the cooling effect of the La Nina and global temperatures would have been nice and hot.

Pay attention to the blue squares. Global temperatures continue to rise, but sometimes the rise is masked by ocean currents. The orange squares show how global temperatures are amplified by ocean currents. Average it out and you can see that global temperatures continue to rise.




Exactly. And before people start talking about we're just in the middle of a "natural" cycle... let me ask this: Where is the extra heat coming from? Solar radiance hasn't changed. The chart doesn't follow an 11-year cycle like the sun. Geothermal processes haven't changed. The heat has to be coming from somewhere... including a greater % of heat being retained by the planet itself.
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1078. nigel20
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Good morning. The Gulf of Mexico is steaming!

Yes it is...you can also see the difference between 2009 and 2012
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Is the GFS still showing a system in the western Carribean?
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Quoting nigel20:
Good morning all

May 10, 2012 SST Anomaly

May 11, 2009 SST Anomaly




Good morning. The Gulf of Mexico is steaming!
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1075. nigel20
Good morning all

May 10, 2012 SST Anomaly

May 11, 2009 SST Anomaly


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Quoting Objectivist:
>It should also be pointed out that globally the average temperature wasn't at all extreme over the last twelve months.)


It's also the case that during the last twelve months we've been experiencing La Nina conditions. The upwelling of cold deep sea water lowers global air temperature.

Interestingly, this was the hottest La Nina year on record. Take away the cooling effect of the La Nina and global temperatures would have been nice and hot.

Pay attention to the blue squares. Global temperatures continue to rise, but sometimes the rise is masked by ocean currents. The orange squares show how global temperatures are amplified by ocean currents. Average it out and you can see that global temperatures continue to rise.



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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That rain is coming your way so enjoy the sun now as you may not see if for several days. HPC is calling for nearly 5" in Houston.





Oh I know it won't last. And my NWS and the GFS gave us back our rain chances. Lol. It's liable to be a mess.

DISCUSSION...
TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES TONIGHT...UPSLIDING THE RECENTLY-ARRIVED MIDWEST AIR.
THE
IN-PHASING OF SLANTWISE LIFT (UPSLIDING) WITH MESO-SYNOPTIC LIFT
(TRAVELING SHORTWAVES) WILL MAKE FOR OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN.

THE RAIN (WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING...WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

BY SATURDAY...AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES (A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW FOUND EAST OF DALLAS WITH A
TRIPLE-POINT LOW FOUND NORTHEAST OF GALVESTON (NEAR BEAUMONT).

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS (FRIDAY NIGHT-TO-SATURDAY NIGHT) WILL RANGE BETWEEN
3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST...ON AND OFF...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
SST's are nearly 80 Gulf wide now.

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Quoting Objectivist:
I noticed in a previous thread you said "Hi", sorry I didn't respond.
I'm afraid you noticed wrong; I didn't say "Hi" to you (or anyone else, for that matter), so no apology is necessary. But thanks anyway. ;-)
Quoting Objectivist:
Regarding this blog entry, what is the error range on the "average US temperature"? Sampling doesn't occur uniformly, and is fairly sparse. What was the error range in the 1920s-1930s, which included some awfully warm years?
AFAIK, there are no error ranges specified, since it's known to a precise degree what the temperature was. The graphs are showing neither model data nor proxy data, but actual instrument readings. As you'll note, the 1920s and the 1930s did have some warm years--but they weren't as warm as the ones we've been seeing lately.
Quoting Objectivist:
It should also be pointed out that globally the average temperature wasn't at all extreme over the last twelve months.
That's to be expected with a very strong La Nina. But it should also be noted that over the last two months, the UAH satellite global temp has risen 0.41C, the second sharpest two-month increase out of the 401 months that comprise the record (the only higher two-month jump was the 0.43 rise that heralded the onset of the extremely anomalous 1998 El Nino spike).

hot, hot, hot
Quoting Objectivist:
>At least it's comforting to note that global sea ice is currently well above the satellite-era baseline. :-)
Yes, that would be comforting--if only it were true. The thing is, both extent and volume are substantially below average (area hasn't been properly updated for nearly two weeks because of some faulty equipment):

ice

ice
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
(bohonkweatherman)  should be getting his very solid rains this afternoon and evening.  I don't see how it going to miss him. 


This should give him a solid 1-2 inches today and tonight and its going to be spread out over decent time period.  Just what the Doc ordered for south TX.  



Yeah he should get a real nice soaking in Austin. Maybe 3"
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


A little worrisome too, especially with the negative NAO you mentioned earlier.  Might be why the models keep wanting to spin up grief in the NW Caribbean and send it up the coast.  We may have a Nicole type of scenario as first storm for the season.


One of the GFS ensembles sent this grief right into the Carolina's.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
I guess the MJO has decided to stay here. This could eventually lead to a mischief over the coming weeks in the Caribbean.


A little worrisome too, especially with the negative NAO you mentioned earlier.  Might be why the models keep wanting to spin up grief in the NW Caribbean and send it up the coast.  We may have a Nicole type of scenario as first storm for the season.
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(bohonkweatherman)  should be getting his very solid rains this afternoon and evening.  I don't see how it's going to miss him. 


This should give him a solid 1-2 inches today and tonight and its going to be spread out over decent time period.  Just what the Doc ordered for south TX.  

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I guess the MJO has decided to stay here. This could eventually lead to a mischief over the coming weeks in the Caribbean.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1064. Thrawst
Quoting belizeit:
Current Temp 88.5
Heat Index 117.0
Rel Humidity 92%

I'm waiting for that first thunderstorm.


Jeez... Dew point above 80 is insane. and I thought it was bad in Nassau right now.
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Quoting JNCali:
Let me describe yesterday here in Mid TN.. perfect.



Workin' on bonus gorgeous day number 2 here. :)

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.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hi Jeffs713 nothing was even close to borderline. It just doesn't make any sense as I was just commenting about forecast and wx in general since this is a weather blog. Very strange!

Quoting jeffs713:

I think the admin only removed some posts that were borderline. IMO, unless you get a ban or WUmailed a warning, just let it go. It is never good to try and argue with a blog admin - they have the banhammer, you don't.


jeffs713 and stormtracker2k

I say this for the up most respect for you two,
            I enjoy very much the discussions you provide to the blog.  You certainly add to it's credibility.  There will always be trolls. ALWAYS.  There has never been and never will be a circumstance in which they don't exist or go away.  Someone will always be there to trying to get the best of someone.  Best thing we can ever do on a blog is just ignore it completely.  Don't even acknowledge their existence to anyone, that's all they want....to be quoted, or to be recognized.  They could care less if their statements are justified, their arguments shattered by facts, or taunts one upped by us.  Just report and ignore. No need to post any kind of information that is associating with their existence.
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Quoting JNCali:
Let me describe yesterday here in Mid TN.. perfect.



Yesterday was wet and nasy in N GA.
Even a little chilly.
Today is....perfect
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No it's called trolls targeting certain posters to get there post removed eventhough nothing is wrong with them while they continue to post and ruin the blog. Very poor system in place here. That's why this plus and minus thing is bad as you can have someone attack you and get your post removed while they continue to post. This could be the reason why so many leave here.


I'm not just talking about yours being removed I'm just talking about in general....
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1057. LargoFl
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO AFFECTING VAL VERDE COUNTY
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

DO NOT DRIVE AUTOMOBILES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...18 INCHES
OF WATER OR LESS CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING TRUCKS.

IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS OR COME UPON A FLOODED ROADWAY...REMEMBER
TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX.

&&

TXC465-110853-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120515T1300Z/
/DLRT2.1.ER.120505T2110Z.120511T0000Z.120515T0100 Z.NO/
953 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO.
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND FALL TO NEAR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS FLUCTUATION IS DUE TO POWER
GENERATION FROM LAKE AMISTAD.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST LEVELS
ON THE RIO GRANDE.
* IMPACT...AT 4.0 FEET...(1.2 METERS)...THE FLOW IS OVERBANKS INTO LOWEST AREAS
OF THE FLOOD PLAIN...THREATENING TO FLOOD THE ROAD THROUGH THE LOWEST SECTIONS
OF THE VEGA VERDE SUBDIVISION.

$$

&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (FT)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
DEL RIO 4 4 3.3 THU 09 AM 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (M)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
DEL RIO 1 1 1.0 THU 09 AM 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7



$$
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1056. LargoFl
bad storms in T exas today, heed your local warnings folks.............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXC127-163-507-101530-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-120510T1530Z/
DIMMIT TX-FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-
945 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA...SOUTHWESTERN FRIO AND NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT
COUNTIES...

AT 941 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAS VEGAS...
OR 8 MILES EAST OF BIG WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE DIVOT...DERBY AND DILLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 9955 2891 9941 2876 9905 2863 9921
2864 9938 2848 9939 2841 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 235DEG 18KT 2858 9943

$$
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Seems like the admins have started to tighten restrictions on posts in preparations for the approaching season. And I can say with great confidence that it'll just get stricter from here until around November. Consider the last few days of Admin post removals warnings and wake up calls for the upcoming months. Behold: the Chart!

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Why in the world were my post removed by admin as I never did anything wrong. Funny admin lets the trolls ruin the blog while the good posters get punished. I would like an answer from admin why my post were removed as nothing I Posted violated community standards.

I think the admin only removed some posts that were borderline. IMO, unless you get a ban or WUmailed a warning, just let it go. It is never good to try and argue with a blog admin - they have the banhammer, you don't.
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Current Temp 88.5
Heat Index 117.0
Rel Humidity 92%

I'm waiting for that first thunderstorm.
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1050. JNCali
Let me describe yesterday here in Mid TN.. perfect.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Why in the world were my post removed by admin as I never did anything wrong. Funny admin lets the trolls ruin the blog while the good posters get punished. I would like an answer from admin why my post were removed as nothing I Posted violated community standards.
ask Nea... it's apparently a double-edged sword feature that Admin doesn't oversee.. it's a result of people's actions in the system.. i use the term 'people' loosely here

surely the content did not violate, just some folk still up to no good.
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Egad... did I kill the blog that well? 20 mins without a post...
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Quoting aspectre:
1025 jeffs713 [2 pictures] ...these images are pertinent to the blog...

Nope, those pictures are closer to an homage to trolling BECAUSE they show only that you are paying WAY too MUCH attention to a troll AND wasting bandwidth in response to trolling.

The first showing on the site is cute if the idea is fresh.
All repetitions including thru subsequent blogs are merely displays that trolls can manipulate your output... which is the objective they seek as proof that they're superior to us normal folk.

Thank you for the constructive feedback. Based on this (and several other pieces of feedback), I've removed the pics.
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These areas need this big time



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1044. LargoFl
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1043. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
Link
alligator threat due to drought
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1042. LargoFl
Link
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1025 jeffs713 [2 pictures] ...these images are pertinent to the blog...

Nope, those pictures are closer to an homage to trolling BECAUSE they show only that you are paying way too much attention to a troll AND wasting bandwidth in response to trolling.

The first showing on the site is cute if the idea is fresh.
All repetitions including thru subsequent blogs are merely displays that trolls can manipulate your output... which is the objective they seek as proof that they're superior to us normal folk.

There are sites (that I won't name) in which trolls score prestige points by bragging to each other about the techniques they use to derail blogs.
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Global trends in tropical cyclone risk
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, not cold, but cooler, and then only in the south, then Florida


I noticed in a previous thread you said "Hi", sorry I didn't respond. I don't really have time for a whole lot of online posting these days. So, hi back. ;-)

Regarding this blog entry, what is the error range on the "average US temperature"? Sampling doesn't occur uniformly, and is fairly sparse. What was the error range in the 1920s-1930s, which included some awfully warm years?

It should also be pointed out that globally the average temperature wasn't at all extreme over the last twelve months. US weather doesn't equal global climate, eh?

At least it's comforting to note that global sea ice is currently well above the satellite-era baseline. :-)
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Quoting aspectre:
1028 RitaEvac: Nah, they have 2 question marks, means they're clueless, which they've been on this entire event.

More likely means "What I've been watching recently is too WEIRD to base a confident prediction upon... but here's my best shot anyways."



In all seriousness, as a government agency why would you question your own call? to even post that out to the public is beyond words. You either know or you don't. If you aren't sure, don't post it.
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1028 RitaEvac: Nah, they have 2 question marks, means they're clueless, which they've been on this entire event.

More likely means "What I've been watching recently is too WEIRD to base a confident prediction upon... but here's my best shot anyways."

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Quoting jeffs713:

As opposed to one question mark, which indicates they just aren't sure.


I tell you what, if it wasn't for that under 2 inches on Monday I'd be ticked
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From the SPC Day1 convective outlook:

..HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD
TORNADOES TO THE TX CSTL PLN THIS EVE. PARTS OF S CNTRL TX TO THE
CNTRL TX GULF CST MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS THE MOST LIKELY
STORM MODE AND AREA OF AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE APPARENT.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nah, they have 2 question marks, means they're clueless which they've been on this entire event.


As opposed to one question mark, which indicates they just aren't sure.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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