U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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If this area of heavy rain south of San Antonio area makes it to Houston and then the second round comes through tomorrow, I don't think the NWS will have a choice but to issue a Flood Watch this afternoon.
Thanks much...i was having a little prob there
Hey! Watch your language! Oh, wait...you said "bullish". Sorry.
j/k LOL!!!
According to the announcement, using a detailed terrain model, SCALGO Flash Flood Mapping can be used to rapidly assess flood risk during extreme rain events on a local, regional or even national scale. Jones Edmunds compared SCALGO Flash Flood Mapping with the results of a recently completed Jones Edmunds flood study in Marion County, Florida, based on an advanced dynamic model (ICPR) used by the Florida authorities and listed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as a nationally accepted hydraulic model. They found that despite a cost of under 5% and a significantly reduced production time, the Flash Flood Mapping results were close to the results of the advanced modelling and the same time significantly more detailed. Another main conclusion was that SCALGO Flash Flood Mapping is a very cost efficient way of screening large areas for high flood-risk areas where very detailed dynamic modelling is justified.
SCALGO reports that its Flash Flood Mapping software can show how much rain has to fall during an extreme rain event before any given cell of a detailed (LiDAR based) raster terrain model is below water. Consequently, the mapping can be easily used to compute what part of each depression is below water after a given amount of rain, and thus effectively shows how water collects in depressions for all possible amounts of rain. The SCALGO Flash Flood Mapping product is being offered as a computation service. Based on the service and its national LIDAR-based terrain model, the major Danish engineering, environmental science and economics consulting company COWI has already successfully launched a new flash flood map product in Denmark, which is being used by several local governments as well as one of the five regional governments in Denmark (covering approximately 13.000 km²).
Don't you have something better and less stalkerish to do?
hey dude I don't know if you noticed but that model the ECMWF I have seen it not showing anything at all when we had a pretty strong TS roaming and I have seen it do that on several storms
Hi my fellow Caribbean friend. Maybe after GFS is upgraded on May 22nd,it improves much more to surpass what I consider the #1 global model and that is the ECMWF.
Sun shining bright S of the supercells.
Money.
Fossil fuel interests (think Koch brothers) make enormous amounts of profit from selling fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel interests fund political campaigns, "think" tanks, and disinformation efforts.
A leaked memo from one of the fossil fuel agencies recently surfaced. In it is a discussion of how to more effectively attack wind generation. It gives one a good idea of how money is working to hold back solving our problems.
Link
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, May 10th, with Video
Hey pedley
Thanks much Levi...i'm going to have a look asap
Already reported. Looks like admin got him already since his comment is gone.
How are you doing?
How do you feel about that squall building South of San Antonio? I am skeptical if that makes it over here, but if it does, boy do we have a wet night ahead of us
There were two of them in the same post. Lets see if they got them both.
Orbital strike was already called in, and was deemed a success. Please continue with your daily business (or posting here - whatever the case may be).
look the ECMWF has failed to pick up some storms. I noticed more with the first part of the season than with the second part, but when ECMWF picks up on the storm it does fairly well. but sometimes it dosen't pick it up at all or not till the storm has already developed.
plus gfs on the other hand take a real good thunder storm complex and turns it in to a low pressure system maybe even a storm maybe just a little more times than it really does happen.
now because of that I rather watch a model that can pick up these system than on that which may very well miss it. plus if I rely on that one model it my show me a sunny weekend and when weekend come a darn hurricane come and take my house and kill me.
also I look at multiple models and if a good amount of them show me this and one does not then I will follow to group that show me this.
I'm not betting on it, other day I thought it would play out and nuttin happened. So hopefully I'm wrong about this and it does pan out. Really not all that impressed with the radar. Lots of open gaps out there. It all remains to be seen, basically sit back and watch radar all evening.
Sounds about right.
No that what it'll be like here during the first named storm of the season
Little less talking, little more action...
I'm good...i'm also enjoying the bright and sunny weather we are now having
I'll check out those flood models. Cool
* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas... Including
The Following Counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos...
Burleson... Chambers... Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Liberty... Madison...
Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity...
Walker... Waller... Washington And Wharton.
* From 1 AM CDT Friday Through Friday Afternoon
* Heavy Rainfall Is Expected Across The Watch Area As A Strong Upper
Level Low Moves Across Texas Friday. A Line Of Thunderstorms Is
Expected To Push Through The Area Early Friday Morning With The
Possibility Of Storms Re-Developing Over Localized Areas Later
In The Day.
* Generally Expecting 2 To 3 Inches Of Rainfall With Isolated
Amounts Of 5 Inches. Hourly Rain Rates Of 1 To 2 Inches An Hour
Can Be Expected In Stronger Storms. The Main Impacts Will Be
Flooding Of Low Lying Areas... Underpasses... Bayous..Creeks And
Poor Drainage Areas. Areas North Of The Houston Metro Area May
Expect Lower Rainfall Amounts Of Generally 1 To 3 Inches.
Yea, but the low is way out west of you, a line should plow thru your area at some point before the event is over
I knew it!!! Saw that coming. Post 1201.
Just the ground preparing for soaking rains on the way
Bad news buddy.
Viewing: 1201 - 1251
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