U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2012

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The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.


Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.

Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Minnemike:

a succinct statement ;)

I made up for it in my next post. lol
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Quoting carcar1967:


My question is, how did co2 get that high way back then? If it was that high before man and their suv's, then is man truly the ones at fault or is this the earth being the earth. The climate has been changing long before man was around and will be changing long after we are gone. Now I believe man should be looking for alternative forms of energy to take the place of oil, coal, natural gas etc. It is the right thing to do. What I dislike is using only a 120 years of "supposedly reliable" data to project a system that changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
If has been shown through out history, that is has been a lot hotter that it is now and a lot cooler than it is now. All without man involved.

It got that high various ways. Volcanic activity is one notable way.

We can tell that humans are responsible for the current warming through various methods, including the isotopic makeup of the carbon in the atmosphere.

We do not need to consider the entire history of the Earth, only the last few thousand years. That's true for a couple of reasons. First, it is true because the climate has been more or less level over that time period (as stable as climate is going to be, anyway). Second, and more importantly, is that that is because that is how long human civilization has been around.

Face it, the human species probably isn't going to die out if the temperature increases by 3°C. We can't be so sure that our civilization which depends upon industrial-scale agriculture will survive such a change. If civilization as we've known it goes kaput, that means that many, many people are going to die.

We need only consider the last twenty-five or thirty years if we want to find a solid temperature trend. It takes that long to allow us to confidently determine that a trend exists due to something other than natural variability.

The trend does indeed exist and the blame is human activity, primarily the CO2 we release through the burning of fossil fuel. There are other factors such as land use that are also important in the current warming.

Hope that helps.

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Heavy flooding in Dade County (Miami)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting pipelines:


Schellnhuber has lost all credibility with this statement, this is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.

Nitrogen is a limiting factor in plant metabolism (assuming only CO2 changes which is not the only thing that will change). Studies have been done (somewhere in the Carolinas I think) which found the only winners were poison ivy and pollen. Grothar posted a link to an article that mentioned this.
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Quoting carcar1967:


My question is, how did co2 get that high way back then? If it was that high before man and their suv's, then is man truly the ones at fault or is this the earth being the earth. The climate has been changing long before man was around and will be changing long after we are gone. Now I believe man should be looking for alternative forms of energy to take the place of oil, coal, natural gas etc. It is the right thing to do. What I dislike is using only a 120 years of "supposedly reliable" data to project a system that changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
If has been shown through out history, that is has been a lot hotter that it is now and a lot cooler than it is now. All without man involved.


This is my understanding of it all.

Natural variations in climate, atmospheric chemistry and CO2 density do occur with or without the presence of mankind. What drove CO2 levels higher/lower in the past can largely be attributed volcanic activity, the movement of the tectonic plates, extraterrestrial impacts, orbital shifts, axis shifts and other variables. These are all independent of mankind. What we are seeing today is mankind releasing tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere. This, in combination with mankind's destruction of the natural carbon sinks, is causing a rise in the atmospheric CO2 levels. When you add mankind's effects on top of the natural forces involved then it should be fairly clear to see that yes, we are impacting our climate beyond the natural forcing. While our mere presence negates any possibility for us to be benign in our world, we can assuredly become less cancerous to our planet. As the saying goes, "failure is not an option", if we wish to continue to live under these more hospitable conditions.
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Couple of strong storms in south Texas right now, one of which is tornado warned
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am not saying AGW is false or anything else, but i was just wondering with those graphs, like the one in Dr. Masters' blog, how do we know that the uptick in temperature we see is not just a tiny momentary change, like going up an anthill in a valley, where you think the anthill is waaay up, not realizing you havent really changed significantly.

Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.


The observations say the global temperature is rising. Once this observation is accepted, then the question becomes "why". And here is where the science part happens... there are many possibilities why global temperature could be rising, and each one we can think of needs tested by asking questions and seeking answers as best we can, such "Can it happen?" and "How likely is this to happen?"

By finding the best answers to the questions, we can find the best fit as to what is really happening. When you plug all the possible causes into the observations, the best answer science has is that AGW is overwhelmingly likely to be casued by rising levels of CO2.

So the short answer is- we will probably never for abosolute certain, but all observable data point to rising CO2 as the cause of AGW, at least until a better answer shows itself.

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Quoting Birthmark:

Start here.

a succinct statement ;)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


How are you sure of what it was 600,000 yrs ago, that could be wrong too?

Plus, if we were in an ice age or something back then, would that not affect the result?

(Note to all hostile bloggers, i did NOT say AGW does not exist)
maybe you should read some literature, or enter the field of climate science to discover how it is that figures are obtained and cross-checked. if your interests are sincere, and you are capable of digesting the technical material, i highly suggest going that route versus asking such questions in the blog. you are not going to get sufficient information that addresses your skepticism from fellow bloggers, if the very information frequently presented by them on this blog has not yet sufficed.

in other words; i question the sincerity of your inquiry, just based on the language you have used. the answers to your question(s) are publicly attainable.

this, btw, is not hostility. it is a friendly suggestion given the subtext of your statements, and the history of this blog. none that i know of who contribute in these comments are field specialists with peer reviewed publications on climate.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am not saying AGW is false or anything else, but i was just wondering with those graphs, like the one in Dr. Masters' blog, how do we know that the uptick in temperature we see is not just a tiny momentary change, like going up an anthill in a valley, where you think the anthill is waaay up, not realizing you havent really changed significantly.

Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.

Start here.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


How are you sure of what it was 600,000 yrs ago, that could be wrong too?

Plus, if we were in an ice age or something back then, would that not affect the result?

(Note to all hostile bloggers, i did NOT say AGW does not exist)


All I am saying is this, a 120 years is not enough to make an accurate prediction of the future of such a dynamic system. Should man do his best to stop polluting, the answer is a resounding YES. But the climate will keep on changing no matter what man does.
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Just cloud cover, don't get excited.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
the 12Z Euro Ensembles--Low in the GOM



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15300
Quoting carcar1967:


My question is, how did co2 get that high way back then? If it was that high before man and their suv's, then is man truly the ones at fault or is this the earth being the earth. The climate has been changing long before man was around and will be changing long after we are gone. Now I believe man should be looking for alternative forms of energy to take the place of oil, coal, natural gas etc. It is the right thing to do. What I dislike is using only a 120 years of "supposedly reliable" data to project a system that changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
If has been shown through out history, that is has been a lot hotter that it is now and a lot cooler than it is now. All without man involved.


How are you sure of what it was 600,000 yrs ago, that could be wrong too?

Plus, if we were in an ice age or something back then, would that not affect the result?

(Note to all hostile bloggers, i did NOT say AGW does not exist)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks in advance for reading.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast


Nice job!
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Quoting nigel20:

The present warming may not be significant, but we cannot deny the fact that the world is experiencing more severe events than before...we could also have accelerated warming due to melting permafrost and glaciers which store methane..a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide. We must also remember that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is at a level not seen in over 600000 years and that is sure to cause present or future problems.


My question is, how did co2 get that high way back then? If it was that high before man and their suv's, then is man truly the ones at fault or is this the earth being the earth. The climate has been changing long before man was around and will be changing long after we are gone. Now I believe man should be looking for alternative forms of energy to take the place of oil, coal, natural gas etc. It is the right thing to do. What I dislike is using only a 120 years of "supposedly reliable" data to project a system that changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
If has been shown through out history, that is has been a lot hotter that it is now and a lot cooler than it is now. All without man involved.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Good afternoon. The trough that is still affecting the Leeward and Windward islands will retograde westward in the next few days causing the return of more rain to Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHWEST JET CORE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN SEVERAL SMALL
TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PUTTING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND FORCE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA SOME DRY AIR
WILL BE IMPORTED FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MIXED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A
DRYING TREND...THAT WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A NEARLY RAIN FREE MORNING OVER PUERTO RICO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLODED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIER PERIOD THAT THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS
STATIONARY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AS AIR FROM WEST AFRICA BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE WIDER AREA
HOWEVER...TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST THEN ARRIVES AND BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT RAIN NOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/00Z OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT TAF SITES WILL BE LITTLE AFFECTED EXCEPT FOR TJSJ LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR IN TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 09/22Z. LLVL WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SE AND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ABOVE 10 KFT ARE WSW-W INCREASING TO 70 KTS NEAR 40 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS REMAIN TRANQUIL AT 4 FEET OR LESS...BUT
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY NOW THROUGH TUESDAY TO 6 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 84 / 20 20 40 70
STT 76 86 77 85 / 30 30 50 60
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
blog2088comment496 ScottLincoln: My initial thought is to question this; what about other portions of the country with a higher density of cows... why is there not smog there? The midwest may not see inversions and light surface winds as often as places like the LA basin where this is more common due to topography, but it does happen. Typically during said "stagnate weather," the pollution tends to be ozone related.

As explained in blog2088comment477, the SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin was already known amongst the natives as The Land of Smoke long before the invention of automobiles, before the beginning of the IndustrializationRevolution, and even before Spanish missionaries "first discovered" the region.
1) The Midwest has lower (naturally-caused) baseline smog levels.
The SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin (was filled with and) is surrounded by plants (especially conifers) that release turpenes, PolycyclicAromaticHydrocarbons, and other VolitileOrganicCompounds as well as nitrogen oxides.
The Midwest doesn't have the type&mix of natural flora that creates smog-producing chemicals at the levels emitted by the conifers and other plants found in&surrounding the SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin. Nor at anything vaguely near the same density.
Any air pollution from industrialization, including that from industrialized agriculture, is added on top of a given region's baseline.
2) The Midwest as a whole is relatively flat, doesn't have the type of terrain that entraps smog. So smog tends to spread far and wide, thinning even on relatively still days. And a light wind thins it even further. Plus weather fronts pass through on a frequent if irregular basis, so winds subtantial enough to thin any smog are more likely to occur
The SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin is surrounded by mountains and mountainous terrain.

What isn't often mentioned is that the LosAngeles region's coastal area rises relatively rapidly to more than 200feet(60metres) above sea level, and then the land rises more slowly to ~1500feet(450metres) at the foothills forming the base of the mountains. The mountains themselves are a mile(1.6kilometres) to nearly 2miles(3.2kilometres) high.
Light winds from the Pacific aren't sufficient to lift smog over those barriers, except through the lower gaps. That in turn causes a back pressure toward the beach areas that stills what-would-have-been light winds over most of the basin, and extends the smog pocket farther over the water.
So those light winds tend to pack smog more tightly rather than disperse it. With smog being packed rather than dispersed, any new smog-inducing chemicals produced in the region are added to the existing smog, and thus cause increasingly higher smog levels.
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Thanks in advance for reading.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting Chicklit:

I live in East Central Florida and think I turned the heat on once all winter.


Atlanta Metro. Our small office didn't turn the heat on all winter. We have some servers/hardware running. Enough heat generated to keep the temps mid low to mid 60s.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Very interesting article in Forbes today regarding some of those EXPERTS who's view seem to be changing.BR>
Schellnhuber recently admitted in a speech to agricultural experts that: “warmer temperatures and high CO2 concentrations in the air could very well lead to higher agricultural yields.”



Schellnhuber has lost all credibility with this statement, this is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am not saying AGW is false or anything else, but i was just wondering with those graphs, like the one in Dr. Masters' blog, how do we know that the uptick in temperature we see is not just a tiny momentary change, like going up an anthill in a valley, where you think the anthill is waaay up, not realizing you havent really changed significantly.

Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.


Well, Occam's Razor would have to apply I'm assuming. Sure, the warming temperatures, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, etc. could be all natural and only coincidental to the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations. But that would require everything we know about the physics of greenhouse gases to be incorrect. And there would still have to be some hitherto undiscovered forcing to drive those changes.
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I don't really think of myself as an AGW enthusiast or one who is in denial. I like to think of myself as a person who accepts fact. The fact is these meteorological events were predicted by climate scientists because of what they think increased CO2 levels would do to our climate. I find it more difficult to deny anything as each day passes. Even if we humans aren't causing global warming, I still don't see why it would hurt to take the safe road and clean up the environment anyway. We have spent way too much time in debate and way too little time in resolving the issues at hand. If we ever do take the right steps to clean up our world, I hope it's not already too late to reverse what we started.
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A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...
AT 400 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CORAL SPRINGS... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... LARGE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Yo GRO! :D
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am not saying AGW is false or anything else, but i was just wondering with those graphs, like the one in Dr. Masters' blog, how do we know that the uptick in temperature we see is not just a tiny momentary change, like going up an anthill in a valley, where you think the anthill is waaay up, not realizing you havent really changed significantly.

Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.

The present warming may not be significant, but we cannot deny the fact that the world is experiencing more severe events than before...we could also have accelerated warming due to melting permafrost and glaciers which store methane..a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide. We must also remember that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is at a level not seen in over 600000 years and that is sure to cause present or future problems.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Looks like it Teddy. Good luck!




YO!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting Chicklit:

I live in East Central Florida and think I turned the heat on once all winter.


Me too. Had only one or two days all winter that were too cold to hit the links.
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I am not saying AGW is false or anything else, but i was just wondering with those graphs, like the one in Dr. Masters' blog, how do we know that the uptick in temperature we see is not just a tiny momentary change, like going up an anthill in a valley, where you think the anthill is waaay up, not realizing you havent really changed significantly.

Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

FLC053-082015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0006.120508T1908Z-120508T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HERNANDO FL-
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2866 8239 2866 8229 2857 8224 2856 8236

$$




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blog2088comment389 CaicosRetiredSailor: Did someone mention COW.....(and is smog, weather?)
LA smog: more cows than cars? By Scott K. Johnson
Much to the chagrin of California tourism promoters, smog is likely one of the things you picture when you think about the city of Los Angeles....
...And where does that air pollution come from? Smokestacks, tailpipes, and cows...

398 jeffs713: Houston has smog and ozone issues all summer - yet very few cattle. (actually, in the areas with cattle, we have LESS smog/ozone issues) And somehow, we have less issues on the weekends, when there are not as many cars on the road.

Yeah, Houston's been trading the title of Smog Capital of the USA with LosAngeles for a few years now, and providing very strong competition for even longer.
But that's mostly cuz the Texas versions of the EPA and OSHA have pretty much taken it as their mission to protect even the foulest of businesses from the efforts of the federal EnvironmentalProtectionAgency and OccupationalSafety&HealthAgency to clean up the mess.
Ya can't even get Texas to discuss imposing the CaliforniaStandard for gasoline-powered automobiles and light-trucks -- let alone for light-diesel-powered buses and heavy-trucks -- or to provide financial incentives for cargo ships to shut down their heavy-diesel/bunker-oil-powered generators in favor of drawing off the grid.
Heck, the TexasPublicUtilityCommission wouldn't even allow T.BoonePickens to create a joint-venture to build high-voltage transmission lines to connect his wind-turbine project to the interstate electricity grid lest that interstate connection be used by the federal EPA as a wedge to gain some leverage over Texas power-producers.
(While the location of Pickens' wind-turbine project prevented it from making a profit by selling its electricity solely to Texas, mandates and financial incentives given to electric-power utilities in other states did allow sufficient overall profits to be made from the extra profit margin produced by sales into the interstate markets, especially the peak power market)
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Quoting jeffs713:
I honestly think the climate change denialist crowd will not stop shouting their tired slogans from their local soapbox until we are well past the point of no return, and their profits start taking a hit.

I have long felt that once the insurance companies get on board we will turn the corner.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
Not surprised at the data. We basically didn't have a winter in the U.S.

I live in East Central Florida and think I turned the heat on once all winter.
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Looks like it Teddy. Good luck!


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could it be? Thunderstorms within a 50 mile radius of me?
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Quoting FatPenguin:


And the oceans, glaciers, arctic ice extent, growing seasons?

Are they all huddled around these heat islands, like a bunch of homeless people trying to fool those stupid scientists?

seriously, anytime I see comments like this I think someone is being sarcastic because after a decade of denial people can't be that dense. Can they?

They can be dishonest.
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Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters! It's actually been uncanny how warm it's been lately. I suspect some of that's due to natural processes, but it makes me wonder if the climate of the United States hasn't passed some sort of tipping point due to global warming. Here, in Toledo, April finished up slightly warmer than average. But it seems like the prevailing view was the month was rather coolish, since it was so incredibly warm in mid to late March. May has started up just where the other recent months have left off. Through the first week, the month has been more than 8 degrees above normal. Other nearby climate sites in northern Ohio are as much as 13 degrees above normal so far this month -- we've had an east wind off the lake the past few days keeping it a bit cooler here. So it's certainly been a very warm spring. The last two summers were both hot, if this keeps up looks like it will be three in a row.
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Could it be? Thunderstorms within a 50 mile radius of me?
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Quoting jonger1150:
Global Warming is basically an anomaly of less then 1.5 degrees in 120 years.... Remove Urban Heat islands and there is no warming.


I believe these figures are already subject to an adjustment for urban heating. In any event, BEST and other analyses have found no significant differences in the trend for urban and rural areas.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


As the proverbial says "We shall see".

What's up TWpr? The weather across the eastern caribbean have been worst than I thought...thanks for sharing the info
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting FatPenguin:


And the oceans, glaciers, arctic ice extent, growing seasons?

Are they all huddled around these heat islands, like a bunch of homeless people trying to fool those stupid scientists?

seriously, anytime I see comments like this I think someone is being sarcastic because after a decade of denial people can't be that dense. Can they?
Au contraire, they've doubled down.
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I honestly think the climate change denialist crowd will not stop shouting their tired slogans from their local soapbox until we are well past the point of no return, and their profits start taking a hit.
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That's a remarkable temperature departure for a 12-month period over the whole CONUS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well first, the GFS has shown the tropical storm in the Caribbean at 384 hours for the past three weeks. It wasn't until today's 06Z run that the GFS Ensembles jumped on board with potential development. Second, the ECMWF does not show anything because the model only goes out to 240 hours, well before the potential range for development.

Tropical development in both the East Pacific and Atlantic would make sense in the last week of May as a strong upward pulse of the MJO enters both basins.

Still sticking with my predictions from last week -

Aletta: May 15-May 25
Alberto: May 21-June 2



As the proverbial says "We shall see".
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
I knew the blog seemed slow and this is why
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The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northeastern Broward County in South Florida.
South central Palm Beach County in South Florida.

* Until 430 PM EDT

* at 336 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 5 miles
west of Coral Springs... and moving northeast at 15 mph.

* The storm will affect...
Tamarac...
Coral Springs...
Parkland...
Coconut Creek...
Mission Bay...
and surrounding communities.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and
or large hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall is
also possible. If the storm approaches your location, seek shelter in
an enclosed building on the lowest floor and stay away from windows.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this thunderstorm. If
outdoors... stay away from isolated high objects such as trees and
avoid water. Move indoors or inside a vehicle if possible. Avoid
using the telephone unless it is an emergency. Try to unplug
unnecessary electrical appliances before the thunderstorm approaches.

Severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes with little or no
advance warning. Prepare to move to a place of safety in an interior
room in the lowest floor of your house or business if a tornado is
spotted.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.
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Eastern East Pacific
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
This study has taken the heat island effect into consideration and as the graph shows temperatures are still "up". The following link will show heat content in the oceans

Link

Preliminary Findings
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project has drafted four scientific papers setting out the main conclusions of the study to date. The papers have been submitted for peer review and cover the following topics:

Statistical Methods
Urban Heat Island
Station Quality
Decadal Variations

Link

img src="http://berkeleyearth.org/images/land-surface- average-
temperature-berkeley-earth.jpg">
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here we are 7 days away from the start of the EPAC Hurricane Season and 23 days to the start of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season and nothing big that may turn out as the first named systems on both basins is showing up in the global models.Only GFS on long range show sometimes Aletta in the EPAC and a disturbance in the SW Caribbean,but for the most part no consistency is seen so far. The ECMWF doesn't have anything.

Well first, the GFS has shown the tropical storm in the Caribbean at 384 hours for the past three weeks. It wasn't until today's 06Z run that the GFS Ensembles jumped on board with potential development. Second, the ECMWF does not show anything because the model only goes out to 240 hours, well before the potential range for development.

Tropical development in both the East Pacific and Atlantic would make sense in the last week of May as a strong upward pulse of the MJO enters both basins.

Still sticking with my predictions from last week -

Aletta: May 15-May 25
Alberto: May 21-June 2

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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