2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas
The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.
Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon
Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.
Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.
Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)
In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Reader Comments
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Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)
NHC website now displays the eastern Pacific basin
Link
This tells me that the 2012 Pac hurricane season could be like 2009
Or 1992
or RECORD ACTIVE >30 storms
Myself I think Aletta will form but idk about Alberto.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST FRI MAY 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING...COMBINED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE 11/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -8 AND CAPE OF ALMOST 4K.
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...SOME OF WHICH HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WAS OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS AS WELL
AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
CAPE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...BUT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASING
AS WELL. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINAL AFTER 11/21Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 11/21Z. WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11/23Z BUT MOSTLY ABOVE 4KFT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 88 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 30 20 20
I don't have my hopes that high about Aletta but it is that time of year and most EPac storms develop in this general area. Right now it is surrounded by bigger blobs of convection so it will need to become the dominant center in that area if it really does want to develop.
Faster erosion would also fill oceans in with sediment faster than the mountains rose, which is relatively minor, but also further displaces more water, pushing up sea levels even higher.
The death toll in the scenario in post 120 would undoubtedly be around 4 or 5 billion or more, because world population is expected to peak around 9 or 10 billion, and presumably stay near that number indefinitely or until we kill ourselves, seeing as how human nature is to consume and reproduce irresponsibly.
See India and Pakistan, 2 of the most populous nations, and yet also having the highest population growth rate, in spite of massive Emigration.
If this much land was destroyed, we could be sure 1 to 2 billion would die of starvation even at present day populations. Therefore, with a population of 9 to 10 billion, you would expect about half of them to die from starvation.
Link
In November last year Garett McNamara was said to have surfed a 90 foot wave. Dr. Masters blogged about it.
After much examination of video clips and stills taken of Garett McNamara's wave estimated height was reduced to 78 feet. But it is still a new world record for the highest surfed wave.
Quite a few High Pressures there to block it... :-/
These are my thoughts. 90E is very well-organized...and I give it a 100% chance of eventually becoming Aletta. By the way...why is the NHC not writing a special Tropical Weather Outlook for 90E?
Who knows when we'll ever see Alberto....
Not feeling that much excitement personally...I am a dedicated Atlantic fan for some reason....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
MAZ002-003-008>011-NHZ015-120345-
/O.EXA.KBOX.FR.Y.0004.120512T0600Z-120512T1200Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON. ..SPRINGFIELD...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
* HAZARDS...FROST
* TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
* TIMING...BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS...FROST COULD DAMAGE ANY TENDER VEGETATION THAT IS
OUTDOORS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE
ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED
PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE
AWAY FROM THE COLD.
&&
$$
If this were 4 days from now it would have an orange circle around it but the NHC is extremely conservative in the off season, even if the start is just a couple days away. Also, the system has no support from the ECMWF, so that throws a variable into the forecast. I say 80% chance this forms.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-007-121900-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 30S.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
$$HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-007-121900-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 30S.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
$$
Some upgrades coming up for HWRF and GFDL.
Interesting note for the GFDL:
"In tests of storms from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, these
improvements resulted in an average reduction of track forecast
error of about 12 percent in the 2 to 5 day forecast time
periods.
The average reduction in intensity errors averaged nearly 20
percent in the Atlantic basin during the same forecast time
periods for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, primarily through
elimination of the large positive intensity bias."
Interesting notes for HWRF:
"Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed
significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast
skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast
biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. "
- All welcomed upgrades coming up on May 24 and 29.
And also GFS will have an upgrade on May 22. Let's see if it becomes the #1 model and surpasses ECMWF after the upgrade.
Link
Thanks for this.. I'm in Southern Mississippi, in the rain. Internet is really slow.
Had to glance at the east coast low the models are calling for. CMC has it go Cold core quick..nover warm for does gfs.
That's nothing new in this blog, some people love do that here...
I don't know, I still think the earth is shaped like a surface lamina, then again maybe I got my calculations wrong...
LOL
Let's hope so!!!
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS
Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region
Introduction
Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics.
Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.
As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.
BAM - The Beta and Advection Model
The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)
The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: . The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.
Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.
Furthermore, upper divergence exists over the gulf and surface convergence, this will likely just perpetuate eastward, blocking higher moisture and 850 mb convergence from moving much further north...
That being said it would seems that the heaviest rain I think will persist all the way eastward and stay further south closer to the gulf coast, rather than spread northeast from its current location. Heavier rainfall will probably not spread northeast till the system approaches the southeast coast, a common scenario.
That being said I also think 5 day QPF over Florida is way too low, especially for the eastern half of that state, but that's no surprise there as QPF forecasts are often lower than actual amounts with rain event's down here.
I don't think there will be a deluge or anything, because they system will lose potency as it runs into high pressure, however daytime heating and might moisture combined with cooler air aloft will subsequently make up for that somewhat, causing a breakout of scattered heavy storms daily.
What this means is that the eastern half of Florida will see a return to drought relief rains, but rainfall on my side of the state will likely be limited as convection over the gulf will likely not be that impressive with the system by the time it gets here, rainfall will be mainly heating triggered, with a westerly flow that means mostly dry here with limited drought relief, just continued warm and humid.
I see we have Invest 91E as well?
I'm pretty sure the good looking one is actually 91E and the blob to the right is 90E... That could be wrong though... Very confusing having two invests right next to each other
I'll have to check, just got home from school.
Weather Station - report
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
Station Select
Now
Light Rain Mist
Temperature
70.3 °F
This is Invest 90E, the weak, disorganized looking invest:
and this is Invest 91E, which has yet to pop up on the ATCF file...thus being unofficial.
More than 2 inches of rain falls in parts of SETX
SOUTHEAST TEXAS - More than 2 inches of rain has fallen in parts of Southeast Texas as a wide area of storms moves across the region.
Winds gusting to 20 and 30 miles an hour, and in spots, tropical storm force winds, knocked down trees and power lines in isolated areas.
A power outage at Vidor High School prompted administrators to release students at 10 a.m. Friday.
Power was out this morning in the Kirbyville area and other locations but the power is being restored.
No flooding is reported in the region.
The large area of rain is moving out of the area but more scattered showers are expected to develop Friday afternoon and evening as an upper level low that triggered the storms moves east from West Texas.
The 90% chance of rain early Friday has now been reduced to 60%.
The rain should end by daybreak Saturday.
As of early Friday morning, rain totals in inches included:
Lumberton - 2.35
Vidor - 2.22
Kelly - 2.16
Central High School - 1.9
Anahuac - 1.65
Mauriceville - 2.25
Winnie - 1.21
Kountze - .75
90e has better vorticity
Hi Jed this moisture is aimed at the northern half of FL that's why the NWS in Tampa really ramped up rain chances for Sunday and Monday. Could be a real nice soaking on the way for C & N FL. I really had to laugh at the HPC's rainfall forecast for Sunday as not only is it too far north it's also too far west. GFS & Euro show all the rain over the eastern Gulf & FL on Sunday.
NAM Precip Map
Viewing: 151 - 201
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