2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas
The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.
Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon
Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.
Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.
Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)
In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Reader Comments
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Sigh...he was one of ours. :/
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 13 14 18 12 18 9 19 24 30 30
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.9
700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 65 63 57 60 64 60 58 55 50
Must be Nap time.......
ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS. ONE PARTICULAR ANTICYCLONE
SITS RIGHT OVER DEVELOPING 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
08.7N104.8W WHERE SST TOP 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALBEIT ONLY IN A
SHALLOW TOP LAYER. UNDER THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
THAN GFS...BUT DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN UKMET OR NOGAPS...MORE
IN TUNE WITH CMC BRINGING SPINNING WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN NEXT 48
HRS BEFORE A QUICK DOWNTURN AFTER THE WEEKEND LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOWNESS OF WARM WATER LAYER AND INCREASING SW WIND SHEAR
FROM UPSTREAM APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
I looked in to see if anything interesting had developed in the EPac, and also to se if we r likely to get much of anything with the front currently entering our area [Bahamas]
Sounds like, despite its poor organization at this time, 90E will be the more significant feature and will have the highest chance for development.
NOAA Floater has that up as 91E. It has just as much spin, if not more, than 90E.
Link
Link
Well on friday night people like hook up for two hours and never talk to each other again,
It's gotten windy out here!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112218Z - 112345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15
MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD
PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG
ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY.
THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND
THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30979786 31829680 32909605 32829527 30999443 29949457
29499496 29079611 29319821 30199852 30979786
You beat me to it 1900hurricane 1
Centex mets haven't really had a handle on this low and what it's doing. I've been considering it a cyclone and expecting what a TS come ashore would do.
90E doesnt look all that impressive.
Alberto's back.
Or dry air.
TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS
MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR
THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED
CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
Link
Good to see :)
Also looks like there's a very good chance we'll have Bud (or Aletta if we don't get her in the next couple days) by the end of next week
nope D-Min is still in the Central Caribbean
The GFS recurves it into Mexico as a strong tropical storm. The ECMWF keeps it on a straight path and makes it a hurricane.
Hurricane Bud is a fitting name.
Thanks for the info Tropics
It's still not up on the ATCF file for some reason.
Agreed. What's up wash?
cheers
Dunno whether we'll get anything in the ATL before June, but I'm pretty sure something will pop in the EPac before then.
I expect one or the other of the two watched areas coming out of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough will get its act together over the next 24 hours.
Hey Baha. I see that you've been having pretty good weather lately
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90E
INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 11
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.7 104.8 285./ 2.9
6 9.0 104.6 37./ 4.1
12 9.4 104.4 15./ 4.7
18 9.9 104.3 16./ 4.5
24 10.4 104.2 16./ 5.5
30 10.7 104.1 4./ 3.1
36 11.0 104.4 322./ 3.7
42 11.3 104.4 353./ 2.6
48 11.6 104.6 324./ 4.0
54 12.0 104.8 343./ 4.1
60 12.4 105.1 325./ 5.6
66 12.8 105.5 309./ 4.8
72 13.2 105.9 309./ 6.2
78 13.5 106.5 303./ 6.6
84 13.9 107.1 306./ 6.8
90 14.3 107.7 303./ 6.7
96 14.8 108.2 311./ 7.8
102 15.5 108.8 320./ 8.1
108 16.2 109.3 325./ 8.6
114 16.9 109.5 344./ 8.0
120 17.8 109.6 351./ 8.7
126 18.7 109.6 3./ 8.7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120511 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120511 1800 120512 0600 120512 1800 120513 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.4W 10.1N 106.1W 10.0N 107.0W
BAMD 8.9N 104.7W 9.9N 105.5W 10.6N 106.3W 11.2N 107.2W
BAMM 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.5W 10.3N 106.1W 10.5N 106.6W
LBAR 8.9N 104.7W 10.0N 105.3W 11.5N 106.3W 13.1N 107.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120513 1800 120514 1800 120515 1800 120516 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 108.0W 10.2N 109.7W 11.1N 111.5W 12.6N 113.9W
BAMD 11.6N 108.2W 12.5N 109.9W 13.8N 112.1W 15.9N 114.2W
BAMM 10.8N 107.2W 11.3N 108.4W 12.2N 110.4W 13.9N 112.8W
LBAR 14.5N 108.7W 17.5N 110.5W 19.6N 111.1W 21.2N 108.6W
SHIP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 41KTS
DSHP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 104.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 103.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 110NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Nope, not yet.
IMO I believe it was may 5
No, not yet....i thought we had our first wave the other day, but it was a trough embedded in the ITCZ
If by UFO you mean a light reflection artifact, then yes.
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