Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.
Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.
Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I have seen more hail in the UK, I've seen hail in FL two times in 13 years.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-161000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$
JELSEMA
I chased it, and it fizzled out fast. :(
Nice green hail core, marginal super cell, no tornado. The proximity to the ocean kills these coming from the south, most of the time in this area.
It's only one day early, lol.
i think A is right
Our climate got drier.
TS Aletta
Round Two today..several fires yesterday from lightening strikes
Say bye-bye 92L!
Objective T-numbers are at 2.9, or ~45 knots (50 mph).
Big blowup of convection underway.
This coincides with the upward MJO pulse
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS PERSISTENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BECOME
ACTIVE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
STRONGEST STORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL
LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTION TO THE EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SOME MOVING ACROSS THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
In 2010 and again last year, the province experienced severe floods despite having a relatively flat topography, including in major communities such as Estevan and Weyburn. I'll be observing the weather conditions there and possibly write something on the recent flood situation and the factors that contributed to it.
Hi Mary, I know your pain however we in FL need it worse as we have only had half of our normal rainfall so far this year while you guys in TX have had over 30" in some cases so far this year while we have only had 5". However hang in there as El-Nino years tend to bring lots of rain from TX to FL so I'm sure more is on the way for you guys. Nothing like last years terrible drought in TX as lots of rain can be expected this year for you guys.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALETTA A LET- AH MIRIAM MEER- YIM
BUD BUHD NORMAN NOR- MUHN
CARLOTTA KAR LOT- UH OLIVIA UH LIV- EE UH
DANIEL DAN- YUHL PAUL PALL
EMILIA EE MILL- YA ROSA ROH- ZUH
FABIO FAH- BEE O SERGIO SIR- GEE OH
GILMA GIL- MAH TARA TAIR- UH
HECTOR HEHK- TOR VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
ILEANA ILL AY AH- NAH WILLA WIH- LAH
JOHN JAHN XAVIER ZAY- VEE UR
KRISTY KRIS- TEE YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LANE LAYNE ZEKE ZEEK
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST PACIFIC TWITTER
FEED IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML...IN ALL
LOWER CASE.
&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
2.9 /1003.3mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.3 4.0
If we go with 2.9, it's a ~50 mph tropical storm. If we go with 3.3, it's a ~60 mph tropical storm. If we go with 4.0, it's a ~75 mph hurricane.
50 mph at the next adv. seems pretty likely.
Could make a run a hurricane strength.
None as they are now developing this upper low over FL and having it sit here for days while drawing up deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean.
The United Nations’ food-price index, which reached a record 236.76 points in February, may climb to 240 points by the year’s end from 229.84 in March, driven by demand for meat, oilseeds and grains, Resilience AG fund manager William Adams said last week.
“If rain doesn’t arrive in 10 to 14 days, there will be start to be an impact on yields if there has not been already,” said David Eudall, an analyst at the HGCA, which is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
“If a decent amount of rain does arrive in the coming days and weeks, the impact could be smaller. However, the forecasts are not predicting this in many areas at the moment.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in London at tdreibus@bloomberg.net
Over the past 12 months, many parts of NE Florida have rain totals in the 20's. One area near Jacksonville only got 19".
Paving and Pumping don't help matters, but this is a Drought!
Note the numbers trend last 12 mth's, and esp last month.
co2now.org
396.18ppm
It looked active on radar across JAX yesterday. Did you guys get any rain?
And people still say the climate isn't changing. A steady increase CO2 voer the last 3 years.
Some areas faired quite well. I only had .27. From TV Met Mike Buresh's blog "Welcome rain for the First Coast Mon. with more on the way Tue. & Wed. Midday through afternoon storms will fire each day....trending downward late in the week. A nice soaker for many spots Mon. including the following through 11pm:
JIA: 1.75".....Ft. Caroline: 2.9"...Arlington: 2.52"....FSC, North Campus (Lem Turner): 2.1".....Orange Park: 2.84"....Oceanway: 2.5"....Trout River/I-295: 1.66"....Mandarin: 3.0" with 50 mph wind gusts about 10:40pm....St. Simons Island, Ga: 1.58".
Additional rainfall of 1-2" will be a good bet Tue.-Wed. with locally higher amounts"
I don't think so. It should be able to peak as a 50/60mph tropical storm, but that's it. Conditions should become less favorable later today as wind shear increases.
LOL! Hey the east coast of FL is very dry too. Believe it or not Daytona has hardly had a drop of rain this month but 5 or so miles inland have had 3" to 4". Crazy! Hopefully the storms are more widespread today.
Yep, can't say I'm surprised. Quite a few of us looked at the GFS as more of an outlier with that solution. (looking back to previous years, the GFS and CMC have a tendency to CONSTANTLY spin stuff up over there)
Good morning Mary. We have a 70% chance today so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I'm out. A good day to all.
StormTracker2K: you have wu-mail.
Aletta's formation in Eastern Pacific ends Earth's 41-day tropical cyclone drought
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:07 AM CDT on May 15, 2012
AND LEAVE THIS OLD ONE
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