Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

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The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


11 days. If you read my blog you would know what I think.:P

I am going to go out on a limb here and say maybe yes and maybe no. With this movement,it will most likely miss the Caymans though.


If you read your own blog, you would know that I read it! And I agree, the Caymans are safe. They should be very happy.
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee you have to read this ..from the 1921 hurricane..man those people back then got hit hard..passagrille..wiped out? bayshore blvd under water?..gee......Link


From the article:

"Washington, Oct. 25. – The tropical storm which swept the Florida coast with such disastrous effect yesterday was central about latitude 29 and longitude 75 degrees, the weather bureau announces, and was “moving slowly eastward.” This would put the storm about midway between the South Atlantic coast and Bermuda."



Wha?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
Quoting LargoFl:
a Cat-3 Track I never want to see happen again...........




And that was so long ago that if you were born that year you are likely not even alive any more, major hurricanes are once in a life time events as best on average for the Tampa Bay area. After living here long enough I've learned you should always be prepared for hurricane season, but never get stressed because you will probably see snow and many winter freezes in the 20's before you see a direct hit from a hurricane here, lol...
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It is official--Tropical Storm Aletta has formed in the East Pacific.

EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
no rain once again, what a surprise. Joke
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Dvorak has TS Aletta numbers.

14/2345 UTC 10.6N 108.0W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific


Woohoo!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
Quoting KoritheMan:


Garlic Jr. is lame.



Garlic Jr. was terrible, I don't think his power level was even over 9000...
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you really think that is going to happen Gro? And how far out is that?


11 days. If you read my blog you would know what I think.:P

I am going to go out on a limb here and say maybe yes and maybe no. With this movement,it will most likely miss the Caymans though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Dvorak has TS Aletta numbers.

14/2345 UTC 10.6N 108.0W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific
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Early start to hurricane season!
(click to enlarge)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
No I mean, it seems like all the time. Drought or otherwise. The Tampa area avoids hurricanes (see Charley) and severe storms on a regular basis.



Maybe hurricanes, but, I live in the Tampa Bay area and have experienced countless severe thunderstorms. That pattern definitely doesn't apply to thunderstorms. maybe for a little while it has because of La Nina, but otherwise no.


I don't know how many times power lines have been blown down around here and many times I've had to clean up fallen limbs. BTW, it takes a lot of wind force to even bring down tree limbs around here, they are just stronger, I guess, unlike the power grid and building codes, lol, buildings and power lines seem to start getting damaged around here at the same time as trees haha.


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Quoting LargoFl:
a Cat-3 Track I never want to see happen again...........
gee you have to read this ..from the 1921 hurricane..man those people back then got hit hard..passagrille..wiped out? bayshore blvd under water?..gee......Link
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you really think that is going to happen Gro? And how far out is that?


11 days
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Quoting Grothar:





Do you really think that is going to happen Gro? And how far out is that?
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I've been going through all of my blog entries and adding the categories so they are all easy access on the category page. In the process, I noticed two things. One, I deleted many of my blogs for some unknown reason. Two, I never kept to my word about making new ones. Lol.

I'll change that this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting bappit:

You can always spot a tropical storm just by glancing at a still photograph in the visible spectrum?


*snicker*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
A satellite image taken on September 8, 1980. Hurricane Frances is near Africa, Tropical Storm Earl is in the open Atlantic near 30 degrees north, Hurricane Georges is just south of Newfoundland, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Danielle are centered over Texas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol.

Dead Zone. DBZ....As in Dragon Ball Z...

No? Okay.


Garlic Jr. is lame.
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Lol.

Dead Zone. DBZ....As in Dragon Ball Z...

No? Okay.
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Quoting Ameister12:
I hope we see something like this in the EPac this year. Daniel was one of the most beautiful tropical cyclones I have ever seen.
EPAC can and will produce some good trackers best basin least amount affected population wise but come jun 1st the atlantic becomes the focus
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
This is just speculation on my part, but I would think that even though a storm contained a higher dbz on radar, here in FL it may not necessarily mean a stronger storm (Severe wise anyways) I don't think there is as much of a contrast in temperature from the lower to the upper levels of the atmosphere here as opposed to states that aren't surrounded by warm moist bodies of water on basically all sides. So I would think that our storms could reach a higher intensity dbz wise, and not necessarily be severe. They usually contain a lot of lightning and a lot of rain, but I think circumstances have to be more primed than elsewhere in the country for severe weather to occur here. Not saying that it doesn't happen, I just think the potential leans us more toward exteme lightning/rain events as opposed to more extreme severe wx events.
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T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
10.75N/107.8W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well its just that there has been a drought the past few months so people bring it up often, lol.
No I mean, it seems like all the time. Drought or otherwise. The Tampa area avoids hurricanes (see Charley) and severe storms on a regular basis.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
a Cat-3 Track I never want to see happen again...........
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Sen. Ron Wydens Visit to Fukushima Raises New Concerns over Safety

By Ethan A. Huff

During a recent Congressional delegation trip to Japan, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) witnessed with his own eyes the horrific aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which we have heard very little about from the media in recent months. The damage situation was apparently so severe, according to his account, that he wrote a letter to Ichiro Fujisaki, Ambassador of Japan, petitioning for more to be done, and offering any additional support and assistance that might help contain and resolve the situation as quickly as possible.

Sitting at the top of [Reactor 4], in a pool that is cracked, leaking and precarious even without an earthquake, are 1,565 fuel rods (give or take a few), some of them fresh fuel that was ready to go into the reactor on the morning of March 11 when the earthquake and tsunami hit, writes Consolo.
If they are MOX fuel, containing six percent plutonium, one fuel rod has the potential to kill 2.89 billion people.


Sen. Wyden is also asking U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Gregory Jaczko to assess how much additional assistance their agencies might be willing to provide to help Japan, and the entire world, avoid a nuclear catastrophe of Biblical proportions.
The scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what I expected and the scope of the challenges to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting, wrote Sen. Wyden in his letter, dated April 16, 2012.
The precarious status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units and the risk presented by the enormous inventory of radioactive materials and spent fuel in the event of further earthquake threats should be of concern to all and a focus of greater international support and assistance.
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Quoting yqt1001:
If this isn't a TS then I don't know what is.


You can always spot a tropical storm just by glancing at a still photograph in the visible spectrum?
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What would be a good source of information on Fukushima? I ran across some reputable looking forums early on in the disaster, but I've not kept up with them and do not have the links myself. Does someone know?

The reason I ask is that I would prefr that WUBA's refer/defer discussion of Fukushima to such forums and leave it off Wunderground--except where the information can be verified. Otherwise I feel like the posts risk descending to a George Noory level. (Which can be entertaining but not much more.)

It is beyond doubt that TEPCO and the Japanese government have not always been honest--or at least not forthcoming--about what has happened at Fukushima. On the other hand, people frequenting this blog are not generally knowledgeable in nuclear energy and, they may not always be capable of separating bad info from useful info. I think we do ourselves a disservice by entertaining highly speculative posts on Dr. M's blog. At least with blobs we generally have some background and reliable resources to judge posts.

Do not get me wrong. I think Fukushima is a vital issue and one that deserves attention. Unfortunately I have seen posts on this blog of videos where people assert that nuclear explosions have occurred. (That claim is ridiculous.) I see posts linking to articles quoting theoretical physicists who specialize in the most theoretical parts of quantum mechanics. (I've seen physicists dismissed as credible sources on climate change. Why should they be credible sources on nuclear engineering?) I have seen posts quoting members of the Japanese Communist Party claiming high levels of radiation found outside the evacuation zone. No supporting evidence is given. (Would the Japanese Communist Party have anything to gain from trolling for dissent? Probably.)

I just would like to raise the level of posts or at least see some disclaimers along with them. Like I said, I think links to an expertise-appropriate forum would be great!

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I hope we see something like this in the EPac this year. Daniel was one of the most beautiful tropical cyclones I have ever seen.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Convection-wise.



Well its just that there has been a drought the past few months so people bring it up often, lol.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't think DBZ is the only thing that determines storm severity...



Indeed, but generally speaking, when you watch enough storms there are certain levels that almost always equal a warning. For example, above 65 DBZ often shows up either when you have large hail or a wet micro burst.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


huh?
Convection-wise.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Its weird it does often seem the NWS in Ruskin is a little more hesitant to issue severe warnings, there is a cell in Polk County coming in near 70 DBZ that doesn't have a warning, but I saw a few warned cells in South Carolina and North Carolina earlier that had warnings with less than 60 DBZ... Go figure.
I don't think DBZ is the only thing that determines storm severity...
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Its weird it does often seem the NWS in Ruskin is a little more hesitant to issue severe warnings, there is a cell in Polk County coming in near 70 DBZ that doesn't have a warning, but I saw a few warned cells in South Carolina and North Carolina earlier that had warnings with less than 60 DBZ... Go figure.
just posted the warning jed
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You guys are always falling into the dead zone. :P


huh?
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
743 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FLZ052-150015-
POLK-
743 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR RIVER RANCH...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE
KISSIMMEE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
INDIAN LAKE ESTATES AND RIVER RANCH...THROUGH 815 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF DIMES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. TO BE SAFE
GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND
STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8114 2765 8139 2790 8136 2789 8132
2785 8128 2785 8123 2782 8120 2773 8116
2772 8114 2769 8114 2766 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 291DEG 7KT 2778 8123

$$
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Its weird it does often seem the NWS in Ruskin is a little more hesitant to issue severe warnings, there is a cell in Polk County coming in near 70 DBZ that doesn't have a warning, but I saw a few warned cells in South Carolina and North Carolina earlier that had warnings with less than 60 DBZ... Go figure, maybe they like to wait and make sure its sustained for more than a couple frames first in that its better to ensure a storm could actually do damage before issuing a warning. I guess the conservative route is always better, makes people more likely to heed warnings.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That being said we are falling in the dead zone, so to speak convective wise.
You guys are always falling into the dead zone. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
260 HurricaneDean07: 92L is officially dead.

According to whom? Don't see a Deactivate on ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
And the(NHC)ATCF is the official report of record.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.


....................

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PREFRONTAL
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING E.
FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
15N80W 8N82W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N64W 16N65W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.


huh maybe precurser to caribbean storm
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Ugh. The thunderstorm complex that was blowing up earlier this afternoon in the central gulf has since weakened and will continue to do so as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

Florida weather isn't what it used to be, that's for sure. Does anyone remember the old climate consisting of afternoon thunderstorms around 4 pm along the west coast? The almost yearly tropical storms? what happened?!



I've been saying that for a while now, but in in this case keep in mind it's mid May, so, really we aren't seeing anything unusual, in fact everything seems to be on target so far for May to some extent.

The problem is the front stalled further west than expected by the models, that being said all that activity over water gets centered way off shore. Also, with the west to east movement most showers and thunderstorms will stay east of the west side of Florida. That being said we are falling in the dead zone, so to speak convective wise.

All the high clouds don't help with development either...


I would agree that over the last several years things have been strange overall though, for example is the complete lack of tropical cyclone impacts as well. It's as if there is a change of Climate that is causing much of the U.S. to experience above normal amounts of severe weather and rain events while it seems the weather here has done the opposite, gotten more tame. We'll see how long this trend continues. My guess is that at some point it must end... I remember when we first moved to Florida, the showers and thunderstorms were very intense, frequent, and dependable. However it seemed in the late 90's we went through a phase similar to how its been the last 3 or 4 years. Then from 2000 to 2005 we went back to having a lot more frequent and intense thunderstorm patterns again, although much of time it was from troughs of low pressure and so it was more of a rain any time of day type deal, so even though we got a lot of rain and big thunderstorms it still wasn't often in the same way that Florida is typically known for.


Of course its not so much that there has been nothing the last 3 or 4 years, I still experienced plenty of impressive rain events and strong thunderstorms, just not as much as usual, and it often came in bursts, like a few days of intense rain and thunderstorms than drier for a few days with only a few showers here and there, than back to wet, than dry again and so on, instead of the daily sea breeze stuff.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
hey guys. well I can take this from the GFS. caribbean system may be likely, and there are two tracks and fates for it.: #1 it takes a Easterly track to the Caymans Cuba and Bahamas, which in terms on how strong it would be, strong TS, #2 it takes a Northerly track to northern Cuba/Yucatan East GOM and Florida/extreme NW Bahamas, which in terms on how strong it would be, a really weak TS or TD or maybe even invest weak TD.
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Also, sorry Cody, but no hand-drawn cones from me. I simply do not have enough time, especially when I have to forecast four simultaneous systems at once during peak season.
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I miss these forecast charts by the NHC..
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177 aspectre: Half-way to looping a second loop, and back at the position it held 2days18hours ago
259 PedleyCA: Is 92L still rotating around his imaginary friend?

That was my first thought. And that someone here had earlier mentioned that 92L's "imaginary"friend was shielding it from too-high shear during its intensification from 30knots to 45knots.

Comparing its travel-angle in the current looping (see the map in the link above) to 92L's travel-angle before intensification during the first looping, I somewhat suspect that 92L is about to once again become protected -- and possibly intensify -- before the next DiurnalMaximum is reached and for a bit afterward. That or it'll get slammed so hard by shear before reaching shelter that it'll be RIPped well before the DMinimum following the next DMax.
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Blog entry, hot off the press!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.