Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:00 PM GMT on May 18, 2012 +30
April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.


Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.

Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.


Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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252. Tropicsweatherpr 9:29 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Maybe 93E?

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8068
253. SouthDadeFish 9:30 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Well there's your problem:



30 knots of shear is no joke. That's just too much.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2408
254. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:32 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Maybe 93E?


The GFS intensifies it into "Carlotta" and the NOGAPS begins to develop it in 144 hours.
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255. washingtonian115 9:36 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
I'm off to youtube to watch some Hurricane Charley videos...
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256. GTcooliebai 9:41 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm off to youtube to watch some Hurricane Charley videos...
Hey what a coincidence I just got done doing that and thought to myself what if Bonnie had not hit the Big Bend area of FL.? Would that have allowed for the track of Charley to be on que and not veer off the NE earlier than expected? Think about it Bonnie leaves a trail of moisture behind and enhances the trough that picks up Charley kind of acting like a block for the storm to move any further north before making the eastward turn.
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257. MAweatherboy1 9:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well there's your problem:



30 knots of shear is no joke. That's just too much.

Also very hostile conditions in the Gulf right now... The longer it stays unfavorable in there the more the chances of a below average season increase since the forecasts are banking on at least one or two storms forming there
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258. stormpetrol 9:51 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
There is anticyclonic flow around the low east of Belize, which is not enabling the shear to destroy it or 30 knots would have destroyed it from yesterday, its has a chance to become something, albeit it small %%
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259. GTcooliebai 9:52 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5162
260. washingtonian115 9:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey what a coincidence I just got done doing that and thought to myself what if Bonnie had not hit the Big Bend area of FL.? Would that have allowed for the track of Charley to be on que and not veer off the NE earlier than expected? Think about it Bonnie leaves a trail of moisture behind and enhances the trough that picks up Charley kind of acting like a block for the storm to move any further north before making the eastward turn.
That could be the case.If so than people in Tampa better thank Bonnie.Maybe she did have more of a meaning than just a random thunderstorm errr tropical storm.Lol.
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261. Jedkins01 9:55 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Man there are some cooky things going on in this blog today, ancient nuclear wars and ancient aliens? Really guys?

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321
262. Jedkins01 9:58 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A reminder about this weekends solar eclipse:

STARING AT THE SUN OR AND ECLIPSE OF THE SUN WILL RUIN YOUR EYES

This gives real reason not to look at solar eclipses.
I guess glancing would be okay, but not more than one or twice.

If you dont want to look at a pinhole projection, get protective eyewear.

Unfortunately, on the east coast, we wont have to worry, will we? :(




Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321
263. GTcooliebai 10:03 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Shear Tendency the past 24 hours show increasing shear over the GOM and Western Caribbean. Also decreasing shear off the coast of the Carolina's.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5162
264. Jedkins01 10:03 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dr. Rick Knabb is the new director of the National Hurricane Center!



I can't help but laugh the irony here considering all the amateurs in this blog who criticize him, yet hear he is getting the NHC director position... Everyone in their own mind seems to be a better expert than the actual experts, lol...


Congrats to him, so, which one of you guys think you might get that position one day? hmm???


I'm not saying that means everything, but I'm pretty sure you don't get there for nothing.
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265. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:05 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
The next advisory will likely be Aletta's last..



Still expecting Code Orange again at 8PM.

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266. Jedkins01 10:06 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Charley forces the largest evacuation in the Tampa Bay Area coverage provided by WTSP and our good old friend Dick Fletcher.

I can remember the reverse contraflow on the Howard Frankland Bridge.



I remember I was 12 years old during that even,t it was the first time a hurricane was approaching that I didn't want even at such a young age, actually I did want it until it rapidly intensified to category 4, now that scarred the poop out of me... lol
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267. caribbeantracker01 10:07 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Shear Tendency the past 24 hours show increasing shear over the GOM and Western Caribbean. Also decreasing shear off the coast of the Carolina's.



not increasing white is for increase
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268. GTcooliebai 10:09 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


not increasing white is for increase
Oh snap! You are right. Sorry about that folks.
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269. caribbeantracker01 10:12 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh snap! You are right. Sorry about that folks.


yh but it would be good if we get a system this early i think the eastern pacific is going in accordance to what levi was saying with the less favorable conditions in the pacific
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270. wunderkidcayman 10:14 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
shear should be down to 10-15kt in 24 and 0-5kt in 48 where the low is
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271. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:15 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
shear should be down to 10-15kt in 24 and 0-5kt in 48 where the low is

We just went through this 6 hours ago...

Quoting caribbeantracker01:


yh but it would be good if we get a system this early i think the eastern pacific is going in accordance to what levi was saying with the less favorable conditions in the pacific

Huh? He never said that. He said the East Pacific would be the favored basin for tropical development.
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272. wunderkidcayman 10:18 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
24


48


I an sick of doing this crap with you TropicalAnalystwx13
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273. GTcooliebai 10:19 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:



I remember I was 12 years old during that even,t it was the first time a hurricane was approaching that I didn't want even at such a young age, actually I did want it until it rapidly intensified to category 4, now that scarred the poop out of me... lol
A good wake up call for the bay area in terms of people heeding the warnings and evacuating. Yeah I was in 10th grade and can remember watching coverage in all my classrooms and we even had to take all the instruments in band and put them to the middle of the room. On the day Charley was suppose to hit I remember walking over to my Grandma in the next block over and here sirens going off it was an erie feeling.
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274. RTSplayer 10:20 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Lol.

Whale Wars.

I root for the whalers and fishermen.

Idiot eco terrorists robbed the fisherman's net and set their catch free, and then complains when the company filed suit against them and they are impounded in port.

They deserved it.

Robbing a legitimate fisheries catch is basically the same thing as piracy.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
275. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:21 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
24


48


I an sick of doing this crap with you TropicalAnalystwx13

That product is already wrong because it shows 35 knots of wind shear in the central Gulf of Mexico when there is 60 knots.

Just presenting the facts here, sorry if you don't like it.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124
276. ProgressivePulse 10:36 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Cimms map is updated every 3 hours where the GFS is from 12Z. Current time is 22:41. The GFS analysis is 10 hours old.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322
277. RTSplayer 10:38 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:
Man there are some cooky things going on in this blog today, ancient nuclear wars and ancient aliens? Really guys?



I applaud "Acient Aliens" for daring to discuss many of these sites and bring out many unknown historical and archeological sites and mysteries.

However, I have caught them a few time mis-representing the facts about a particular site and refusing to make a retraction, of course the most notable one is Gobkeli Tepe and the claim of "no tools or bones" there, when in fact many tools or bones were found on the site. Although admittedly, only one "interviewee" made that claim, so she is not representative of the views of the programs authors.

As for other evidences that some ancient civilizations were ridiculously more advanced than mainstream text book history, rivaling modern technology in at least a few sub-sets of endeavour, I believe they have proven that beyond contestation, even if you don't agree with all of the details.

This included at least one modern professional stone cutter stating that even with modern tools, including lasers and stencils, he would not attempt to replicate the stone work for ANY amount of money, because "it would be too hard, and I'm not going to spend the rest of my life trying to do that."(paraphrase).

Stone working issues. Allegedly no written language and no wheel!!!

By the way, that one gives me the willies every time I watch it...

and

Claiming this as a hoax is inconceivably hard to believe, particularly at 7 minute mark forwards

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
278. caribbeantracker01 10:39 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We just went through this 6 hours ago...


Huh? He never said that. He said the East Pacific would be the favored basin for tropical development.


listen to me levi said that like in 2002 this year is similar in pattern and in that yr the eastern pacific was less favorable i do not remember the Tibet but ask him but unlike last year the eastern pacific is much less active than the Atlantic in other words not just that we have had a storm form but the life of it suggests something the strength and the structure imo imagine there is not much wind shear and a system was unable to cross 50 mph i have been observing systems since 2002 i know what i am looking for dont argue try and research what i am saying
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
279. AlwaysThinkin 10:39 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Thanks guys something to chew on. I've been leaning toward the permaculture/ small scale side. Seems a lot more flexibility in it and more room for experimentation. It helps hearing from people that have actually been in the field.
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280. MAweatherboy1 10:41 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:
Lol.

Whale Wars.

I root for the whalers and fishermen.

Idiot eco terrorists robbed the fisherman's net and set their catch free, and then complains when the company filed suit against them and they are impounded in port.

They deserved it.

Robbing a legitimate fisheries catch is basically the same thing as piracy.

I love that show... Hands down my favorite show on TV... You do realize that not all the "catches" of marine life made are legitimate though right? I have no problem with legal, sustainable fishing but that's not what the "eco-terrorists" are protesting against.
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281. ProgressivePulse 10:43 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
And CIMMS has been known to be wrong.
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282. Saltydogbwi1 10:44 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I see 60kts on both maps?


correct one map shows m/s the other knots
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283. stormpetrol 10:46 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    


Low moving away from shore in a more SE/ESE direction, very slowly.
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284. MAweatherboy1 10:46 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
I wouldn't exactly say 92E looks well organized right now... To me it just looks like a small blob of convection:



I think we probably see 30% at 8PM but I wouldn't be surprised if it stays at 20%
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285. ProgressivePulse 10:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
And the CIMMS map shows 80kts in the central gulf, not 60kts.
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286. Jedkins01 10:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
A good wake up call for the bay area in terms of people heeding the warnings and evacuating. Yeah I was in 10th grade and can remember watching coverage in all my classrooms and we even had to take all the instruments in band and put them to the middle of the room. On the day Charley was suppose to hit I remember walking over to my Grandma in the next block over and here sirens going off it was an erie feeling.



Yeah, we had the emergency vehicles driving through my neighborhood, where I live is only 4 ft above sea level and most houses here are mobile homes, the emergency vehicles cycled through with loud speakers, it was scary, I knew we were in trouble then...

What was really scary, was that we fled to a condo in the Clearwater area, a really strong building in probably the highest elevation in Pinellas County, we felt safe till we went to the store and came back to find during the we were gone the hurricane was nearly a category 5, and was only at 2 when we left. We knew if it continued we would likely have a category 5 hurricane coming in, at that point we knew it didn't matter what building we were in, it was going to be hell if it kept heading our way. I was flat out scarred, all of us were. We knew we were going to be riding out a catastrophic event at that point if it continued our way.
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287. wunderkidcayman 10:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
And CIMMS has been known to be wrong.


true

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


correct one map shows m/s the other knots


yes
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288. RTSplayer 10:50 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I love that show... Hands down my favorite show on TV... You do realize that not all the "catches" of marine life made are legitimate though right? I have no problem with legal, sustainable fishing but that's not what the "eco-terrorists" are protesting against.


I hate poaching as much as the next guy, especially if it's threatening stable populations.

I also can't stand the way eco extremists ruin everything for other people either. A few days ago, a hydro project in S. America was shut down because the greens complained about it doing too much damage to the environment. What the heck else is anyone supposed to do, as Hydro is one of the cheapest, most productive forms of renewable energy.
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289. ProgressivePulse 10:50 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


correct one map shows m/s the other knots


30 Meters per Second = 58.31533477321814 Knots
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290. ProgressivePulse 10:51 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Gotta know the maps scale to compare correctly.
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291. stormpetrol 10:52 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:



I can't help but laugh the irony here considering all the amateurs in this blog who criticize him, yet hear he is getting the NHC director position... Everyone in their own mind seems to be a better expert than the actual experts, lol...


Congrats to him, so, which one of you guys think you might get that position one day? hmm???


I'm not saying that means everything, but I'm pretty sure you don't get there for nothing.


I agree, I'm always amazed how they can pin down these devastating tornadoes outbreaks days before , but very seldom hurricanes or TSs , they're still working hard on forecasting these. Dr. Rick Knabb is a logical and reasonable man in my opinion, this is probably what earned him the position most! Just my take.
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292. wunderkidcayman 10:53 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
60mph is 26.8 m/s
I think that is the conversion
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293. Thrawst 10:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon, everybody.

It's been very warm here today... just contrast Nassau [86] and Ft. Lauderdale [75] right now. The skies never completely cleared today, but we did have some partial sun, which meant humidities were up. Meanwhile, the sea breeze basically died, so it got pretty oppressive around 2 p.m. Since then it's been sprinkling, but no more showers or downpours so far in my area.

I thought a cold air mass was supposed to move in behind the rain....


Hey Baha... yeah it was extremely oppressive playing B-Ball at around 1pm-ish.

miss those storms... where are they? :(
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294. pottery 10:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
Thanks guys something to chew on. I've been leaning toward the permaculture/ small scale side. Seems a lot more flexibility in it and more room for experimentation. It helps hearing from people that have actually been in the field.

Permaculture is pretty simple...
It's the idea that agriculture ought to be practised Vertically instead of Horizontally, basically.
Harvest from the tallest trees to the roots and tubers underground and everything in between including livestock and fish.

It's the way it "used" to be.
And it works.
Obviously.
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295. wunderkidcayman 10:55 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
60kt is 30.9
I think
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296. ProgressivePulse 10:56 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
The GFS analysis that was used actually has a bulls eye of about 36m/s which is 68kts. Not to far off from the current CIMMS. Nonetheless, one can gather that shear is on the rise in the Central Gulf.
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297. winter123 11:00 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Let me guess, the area east of Carolinas does not even have a 0% from NHC. There's a well defined LLC east of mid Atlantic, but It's frontal, so NHC ignores it. Too much shear at the moment. What I'm looking at is the blob near south Carolina. Weak LLC with convection near the center, and shear tendency is rapidly dropping (see a previous post).

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298. wunderkidcayman 11:03 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
right in 24 hours it will be 19-23kt 36 hours 9-11kt 48 hours 0-5kt
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299. VAbeachhurricanes 11:05 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:



I can't help but laugh the irony here considering all the amateurs in this blog who criticize him, yet hear he is getting the NHC director position... Everyone in their own mind seems to be a better expert than the actual experts, lol...


Congrats to him, so, which one of you guys think you might get that position one day? hmm???


I'm not saying that means everything, but I'm pretty sure you don't get there for nothing.


DIBS ;)
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300. AtHomeInTX 11:08 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
The latest GFS seems to keep the NW Caribbean low where it is throughout the entire run. Finally taking a low into Mexico just south of Brownsville.

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301. ProgressivePulse 11:09 PM GMT on May 18, 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right in 24 hours it will be 19-23kt 36 hours 9-11kt 48 hours 0-5kt


Could be. Shear is a tough one to predict however.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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