Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast
The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.
Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.
Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.
Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.
I'll have an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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MaximumSustainedWinds have been re-evaluated&altered
for 32.9n77.1w from ~35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~35knots(40mph)65k/h and
for 32.5n77.3w from ~35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~40knots(46mph)74k/h
MaxSusWinds, MinimumPressure and TropicalCycloneStatus have been re-evaluated&altered
for 32.3n77.6w from ~40knots(46mph)74k/h 1007millibars (closed)Low
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .to ~45knots(52mph)83k/h 1000millibars TropicalStorm
On 20May12amGMT, TSAlberto's ATCF position was 32.2n78.0w
It's vector has changed from SW at ~3.2mph(6k/h) to WSW at ~4mph(6.5k/h)
Its MaxSusWinds have increased from ~45knots(52mph)83k/h to ~50knots(58mph)93k/h
And its minimum pressure has decreased from 1000millibars to 995millibars
For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida , SSI is St.SimonsIsland,Georgia, 08GA is Darien,Georgia
The northeasternmost unconnected dot amongst was TSAlberto's initial position as 93L
The easternmost dot on the short line-segment is where the NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The westernmost dot on the short line-segment was its most recent ATCF position
The long line-segment is a straightline projection through its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
TSAlberto was headed toward passing over WolfIsland near Darien,Georgia in ~1day22hours
Copy&paste jax, ssi, 08ga, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w, 33.3n76.6w, 33.1n76.8w, 32.9n77.1w, 32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w-32.2n78.0w, 32.3n77.6w-31.323n81.286w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
It doesn't even take satellite imagery to see that, look at the radar imagery, it looks like crap, lol.
;)
low chance lol
mostly just rainy....harbor was pretty stirred up
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can be further magnified in link window)
Good to see my fellow South Carolinian again. If Alberto can actually manage to get itself together again, you'll be our first-hand reporter!
MARK
31.67N/78.55W
possible convective refire
DMAX starting up? Not doing much, though.
Last couple frames it looks like convection has finally begun to fire over the LLC again. May not look like much but I have hopes for him. Alberto may yet live another day.
the screen goes blank when it goes to the next image, it is not a true jpg updated graphic
That really sucks for those who like to use the NHC floater images to update blogs
Honestly, I don't think shear has ever really been strong over Alberto. Dry air is the larger problem.
Either way, it should be an interesting several hours ahead for our Atlantic tropical storm.
Thought about PRESS in a DRESS....
and Aubie in a Pink TuTu!
Interesting that the first name coincided with our Girls of WU Meet!
Again stay safe.... We are watching Alberto & remembering other A Storms.
We got a pretty solid looking convective blob and it looks like a feeder band MAY be setting up to the NE and blowing up it's own convection.
a surprise could be landfall in SC
32.2n78.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w are now the newest positions
On 20May6amGMT, TSAlberto's ATCF position was 31.8n78.7w
Its vector has changed from WSW at ~6.8mph(11k/h)* to WSW at ~5.4mph(8.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have decreased from ~50knots(58mph)93k/h to ~45knots(52mph)83k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 995millibars to 998millibars
For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida - FHB is FernandinaBeach,Florida - SSI is St.SimonsIsland,Georgia
The northeasternmost unconnected dot was TSAlberto's initial position as 93L
The easternmost dot on the short line-segments is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The easternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position
The 08ga*coastline-dumbbell is the endpoint of the previous straightline projection
connected to its closest airport (near Darien,Georgia)
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
TSAlberto was headed toward passing over FernandinaBeach,Florida in ~1day7hours from now
Copy&paste jax, fhb, ssi, 08ga-31.323n81.286w, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w, 33.3n76.6w, 33.1n76.8w, 32.9n77.1w, 32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 32.0n78.2w-30.655n81.433w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
* Because 32.2n78.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 32.0n78.2w, the speed&direction would have been calculated diffently for the previous mapping using the (now)correct position. So the 08GA dumbell shows an incorrect endpoint because of an incorrect previous straightline projection.
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
But the previous vector(direction&speed) has been corrected to reflect that change to 32.0n78.2w
Who is Cyclone Oz?
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Alberto:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO DRIFT PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...
.NEW INFORMATION...
OUTER RAINBANDS OF ALBERTO CONTINUE TO COME ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND BERKELEY...INLAND JASPER...BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON...
CHARLESTON...COASTAL JASPER AND TIDAL BERKELEY.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...COASTAL BRYAN...COASTAL CHATHAM...
COASTAL LIBERTY AND COASTAL MCINTOSH...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7N...LONGITUDE 78.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC...OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH
GA. STORM MOTION WAS WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 50 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINS AND STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE
OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 1/4 INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT MAYBE UP TO 1/2
INCH ALONG THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GAZ117-119-139-141-211000-
/O.NEW.KCHS.HU.S.1001.120520T0951Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
GEORGIA COASTLINE...
...COASTAL HAZARDS...
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC COASTAL BEACHES TODAY.
$$
Link
Having said that, Alberto was really beaten down yesterday, and D-Max didn't help it at all.
ROME — An earthquake struck the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna on Sunday, killing five people, wounding at least 50 and damaging historic buildings as well as warehouses and factories, officials said.
Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms
Changes in frequencies of storms in the Midwest, by category of storm size for five decades, 1961-1970 through 2001-2010. Labeled changes are for the last decade. Comparisons are to frequencies in 1961-1990.
The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and Natural Resources Defense Council have released a new report, Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms, which starkly documents how much heavy precipitation has increased in the Midwest and sheds new light on the devastating and costly floods that have hammered the region, especially in recent years.
New RMCO analysis of a half century of precipitation data across the Midwest, defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin, indicates the region has had an increasing number of large storms since 1961. The largest of storms—those of three inches or more of precipitation in a single day—have increased the most, with their annual frequency more than doubling over the past 51 years. The frequencies of all large storms, especially the largest, have particularly spiked this century.
[…]
The report also presents new evidence linking extreme storms in the Midwest to major floods, the region's most costly regularly ocurring natural disasters. The new analysis shows that the two worst years in the Midwest for storms of three inches or more per day were 2008 and 1993, the years with the Midwest's worst floods in some 80 years, which caused $16 billion and $33 billion in damages and rank among the nation's worst natural disasters. The report presents new evidence linking the 2008 flooding to extreme storms, showing that, in areas with the worst flooding, 48% of the local precipitation came from extreme storms.
As Stephen Saunders, president of RMCO and the report's primary author, said: “Global studies already show that human-caused climate change is driving more extreme precipitation, and now we’ve documented how great the increase has been in the Midwest and linked the extreme storms to flooding in the region. A threshold may already have been crossed, so that major floods in the Midwest perhaps now should no longer be considered purely natural disasters but instead mixed natural/unnatural disasters. And if emissions keep going up, the forecast is for more extreme storms in the region.”
Read the whole thing here
Once upon a time, PatRobertson prophesized that God'sWrath would send a HUGE hurricane to destroy DisneyWorld and Orlando because they didn't prevent an unofficial GayDay from happening there.
And sure enough, 2 HUGE hurricanes wreaked havoc...
...upon PatRobertson's 700Club home turf in VirginiaBeach: 1998's Bonnie and 1999's Floyd.
Those same two HurricaneSeasons were relatively mild for Florida considering its history.
In other words, don't go predictin' what a hurricane will do damage-wise lest ya jinx yourself.
Sometimes ya can almost get the feelin' that hurricanes have a very VICIOUS sense of humor:
NewOrleans breathed a sigh of relief because the worst of Katrina was over... then the levees collapsed.
Rita heads at the Houston metroplex like a maddened bull charges a rodeo clown -- terrifying people with visions of "another Katrina" so soon after the original -- then veers away... after proving that Houston's DisasterEvacuationPlan was a disaster in&of itself.
Then after all too many of those folks had convinced themselves that the Rita fiasco proved that nothing was worth putting up with the hassle of a mass evacuation, Ike takes out the Galveston area.
Edit in: 503 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [Atlantic SurfaceWind Map]
Now that's a cool map.
At least along the surface, looks like the Bermuda-AzoresHigh is trying spinning up TSAlberto off of SouthCarolina AND trying to spinup the low off of the Virgina-NorthCarolina border, blocking TSAlberto from heading north.
Viewing: 501 - 551
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