Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

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Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

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757. GTcooliebai
11:13 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Ok Bud I see you

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
756. wunderkidcayman
11:13 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
How can you think that two areas from the same disturbance can move in different directions ? Convection might increase to the SW or NW as you say but the areas of convection don't move.

ok stormwatcher come and meet me on next blog
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
755. stormwatcherCI
11:10 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

once that blob to the south near Hon/Nic moves NW to the GOH system and that one just NW of Grand Cayman Island expands and moves S-SW the system will beast out
How can you think that two areas from the same disturbance can move in different directions ? Convection might increase to the SW or NW as you say but the areas of convection don't move.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8319
754. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:08 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
753. wunderkidcayman
11:03 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

once that blob to the south near Hon/Nic moves NW to the GOH system and that one just NW of Grand Cayman Island expands and moves S-SW the system will beast out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
752. GeoffreyWPB
10:59 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11099
751. aspectre
10:59 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

Skies over McAllen,Texas -- Delcia Lopez for The Monitor (Larger version)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
750. wunderkidcayman
10:57 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
Why settle for Bud when ya can have a Corona?

na I find corona is and going to be like mexican piss with out salt and lime but can't wait till reach millier may it will be a cat 5 full of bold crisp tast
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
749. aspectre
10:53 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Why settle for Bud when ya can have a Corona?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
748. MAweatherboy1
10:50 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
TS Sanvu

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7725
747. MAweatherboy1
10:47 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Extreme Southwest fire danger tomorrow

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7725
746. wunderkidcayman
10:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
so I say yellow circle today
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
745. MAweatherboy1
10:45 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Morning everyone... Bud is slowly but steadily coming together:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7725
744. wunderkidcayman
10:44 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:

wow TS soon to come


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
743. Hurricanes101
10:43 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
NW Caribbean a bit more interesting this morning. The low there has gotten better organized, but still needs to show persistent convection before it can be considered a threat for development
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
742. LargoFl
10:38 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..................................Good morning folks,another hot and sunny day here in florida, have a great day
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37883
741. LargoFl
10:37 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37883
740. LargoFl
10:35 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37883
739. Doppler22
10:33 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Good Morning Bud... Nice to have you this morning
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3726
738. Vincent4989
10:18 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Hey, bud! Yes, it means all of you here and that one heck of a tropical storm.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its the internet. Rule number 1 of the internet. If you are on internet and able to get angry they will find you. And they WILL make you angry.

Rule 1 of the internet: Do not talk about /-/
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
737. wunderkidcayman
10:18 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
shear in the GOH is droping now down between 5-20kt however northern NW caribbean area is still under 30-60kt shear but that is pushing further N and shear is forecasted to ease up in the NW carib in 12 hours maybe be less the strongest area of vort at 950 is near the blob in the GOH in the blob shows good circulation via sattelite and radar
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
736. aspectre
9:29 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalDepressionAlberto for 22May6amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 31.6n76.1w
Its vector has changed from East at ~12.1mph(19.5k/h) to NEast at ~14.2mph(23k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady ~30knots(35mph)55k/h
And minimum pressure has held steady at 1008millibars

If its travel-speed continues to make up such a large fraction of its MaxSusWinds speed, TDAlbert will probably be gone later today.

For those who like to visually track TDAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida . HNC is CapeHatteras,NorthCarolina . 26N is OceanCity,NewJersey

The northernmost dot on the line is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The southernmost dot on the line is where TSAlberto became TDAlberto
The easternmost dot on the next line-segment was TDAlberto's most recent ATCF position

Copy&paste jax, hnc, 26n, 32.3n77.6w, 32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w, 31.7n79.3w, 31.1n79.9w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.1w, 30.5n78.3w,30.7n77.1w, 30.7n77.1w-31.6n76.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
735. Slamguitar
9:16 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
We have Bud!!

40mph, 1004mb

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
734. Slamguitar
8:35 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is interesting.



Are my eye's deceiving me, but do I see some spin?


It looks to have some decent low/low-mid level twist:

850mb


700mb


500mb
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
733. traumaboyy
8:19 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Whatup Baha!!

Bout the same here Kori....Lots of static and some rain..Had a severe TS kick up Tuesday....took down two Pecan Trees on our property. Thought that was interesting as those trees have been there for over a hundred years.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
732. Slamguitar
8:10 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
I'm always lurking. ;)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
731. AussieStorm
8:10 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
This is interesting.



Are my eye's deceiving me, but do I see some spin?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
730. AussieStorm
8:08 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.

I'm still around, just lurking, not posting.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
729. BahaHurican
8:04 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting traumaboyy:
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
Wow... howarya, trauma? Long time no see over the 2 a.m. coffee...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
728. KoritheMan
7:26 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting traumaboyy:



How's things over around NOLA??


Hot and humid, afternoon storms. Typical Louisiana weather. How about your area?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
727. traumaboyy
7:23 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.



How's things over around NOLA??
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
726. bigwes6844
7:21 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
getting clearer in the caribbean. mite see the next name storm soon.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2576
725. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:52 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
15:00 PM JST May 22 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas

From Tiyan, Guam NWS
----------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (1002 hPa) located at 13.9N 143.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 15.6N 140.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 18.0N 139.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45206
724. KoritheMan
6:16 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting traumaboyy:
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
723. traumaboyy
6:16 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
722. aspectre
6:03 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
718 sunlinepr: NuclearRegulatoryCommission Chairman to Resign under Fire

And a Bloomberg link for those who care about how many times per month they click NYTimes link.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
721. KoritheMan
5:25 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GOM-WV LOOP

Too much shear and dry air for anything to get going right now, maybe this weekend or next week.


Alberto was a fluke. The westerlies are still very much in control.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
720. GTcooliebai
5:23 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
GOM-WV LOOP

Too much shear and dry air for anything to get going right now, maybe this weekend or next week.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
719. KoritheMan
5:15 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Just did a late blog on Alberto and TD 2-E.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
718. sunlinepr
5:11 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Chairman Of N.R.C. To Resign Under Fire
By JOHN M. BRODER and MATTHEW L. WALD
Published: May 21, 2012

WASHINGTON — Gregory B. Jaczko, whose three-year tenure as chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been marked by bitter battles with colleagues and with Congress, announced Monday that he would step down as soon as a successor was confirmed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/us/gregory-jacz ko-to-resign-as-nrc-chairman-after-stormy-tenure.h tml?_r=2
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
717. sunlinepr
5:06 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
Near Fukushima power plant, the last 4 days of earthquakes 4 plus on the richter scale.



Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer:

Unit 4 is weakened I think about a M7.0-M7.5 quake will knock that building to the ground

The fuel is still hot enough where it can begin to burn cesium and plutonium and all that

It would volatilize as the fuel burns, it creates a pyrophoric fire which is a fire that water cannot put out.

Likely resulting in an evacuation of Tokyo at the least, and potentially contamination of the entire northern hemisphere.

[...] Experts from around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the No. 4 reactor building. [...]

Mitsuhei Murata, former ambassador to Switzerland, also told an Upper House hearing in March that another accident at the reactor building could cause the final catastrophe of the world. [...]

-------------------------

Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer: This is the sleeper as far as Im concerned.

Unit 3 has about half the nuclear fuel in its pool than Unit 4 does.

Some of it is still quite hot.

It had been removed about 6 months before the meltdowns.

So it has a hot enough quarter of a core that it could burn in air.

And of course the Unit 3 building is fatally flawed.

So my concern is the same problem on Unit 4 could occur on Unit 3, we seem to just worry about Unit 4.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
716. wunderkidcayman
4:57 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
shear is not high right now the LLCOC in the GOH is under 15Kt shear which is expected to drop down to abot 5-10kt
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
715. aspectre
4:56 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
711 Skyepony: More back lash from Ike. The whole TX rolling easement maybe dead...

Absolutely A B S U R D .
By those two AppealsCourt judges' sort of "reasoning"...
Even if GalvestonIsland were to be washed away to the point that all of the land were completely under the low-tide line, the government wouldn't be allowed to clear away debris for boat traffic.
...ie not without first purchasing the "property"s from their "owner"s, or at least first compensating those "owner"s for permission to clear away the debris. It ain't like folks are gonna give permission for free when they can squeeze money outta the government.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
714. wunderkidcayman
4:54 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This is what I used to find lowest pressure location...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
Shows a 1010 mb center in NW Caribbean at the Guatemala/Mexico border. I will concede that the very new 00Z TAFB shows a 1009 mb center further SE toward GOH...which better matches your statement....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html
During this animation...I clicked on HDW-high...which shows 200 mb out of the west....even over GOH. Therefore...there is still westerly shear over this area. Lets see if that upper ridge axis can lift northward directly over the GOH. If it does...we will need a sustained period of that upper ridge being over the GOH for development since low surface pressures are so broadly spread.


I sometimes use the surface map but I ussally use the surface obs

maybe yes the 200mb winds are out of the W be the speed is falling and the ridge will move over into the GOH and also pressures are not so broad as you may think 1009mb or less is mainly confined to the GOH
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
713. wunderkidcayman
4:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:


They just messing with ya, everything you said is right, though I hate to agree because of the flooding here today and the thought of more to come, I feel bad for those affected by the weather here today, I understand some even lost there homes because of it! like they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose" Goodnight!

ok goodnight se you in the morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11679
712. aspectre
4:38 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalDepressionAlberto for 22May12amGMT:
What was TSAlberto is now TDAlberto
MinimumPressure at 30.5n78.3w has been re-evaluated&altered from 1007millibars to 1006millibars

Its ATCF position was 30.7n77.1w
Its vector has changed from East at ~8.1mph(13k/h) to East at ~12.1mph(19.5k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have dropped from 35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~30knots(35mph)55k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 1006millibars to 1008millibars

For those who like to visually track TDAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida . BDA is Bermuda

The northernmost connected dot is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The westernmost dot on the longest line-segment was TDAlberto's most recent ATCF position
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to
its point of closest approach to Bermuda's southernmost point

The bent BDA dumbell on the eastern end of the longest line-segment is the straightline projection's closest-approach point connected to Bermuda's southernmost point connected to its airport.
On 22May12amGMT, TDAlberto was headed toward passing ~12miles(20kilometres) south
of SinkyBayBeach,Bermuda in ~2days8hours from now

Copy&paste jax, bda, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 31.8n78.7w-31.7n79.3w, 31.7n79.3w-31.1n79.9w, 31.1n79.9w-30.7n80.1w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.8w-30.4n79.1w, 30.4n79.1w-30.5n78.3w, 30.5n78.3w-30.7n77.1w, 30.5n78.3w-32.07n64.836w, bda-32.247n64.836w-32.07n64.836w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
711. Skyepony (Mod)
4:37 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
More back lash from Ike. The whole TX rolling easement maybe dead..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37791
710. wxmod
4:34 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Near Fukushima power plant, the last 4 days of earthquakes 4 plus on the richter scale.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
709. NCHurricane2009
4:24 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
The only model support is one closed isobar for one or two time frames and that is only on a few model runs. Shear is actually very high, 30-40 knots. Satellite presentation hasn't changed much.

This is a touchy situation though...the low surface pressures have recently tried to collocate more with the upper ridge axis per 00Z TAFB surface map and 200 mb wind vectors.

But...I am still reluctant that the upper ridge will lift north and support development. Instead...I think the upper ridge will remain suppressed south by the big upper trough getting ready to move into the eastern US. Therefore...I am still thinking sustained westerly shear over the GOH....beneath a westerly jet S of the upper trough and N of the upper ridge....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 465 Comments: 3652
708. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:24 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
02E/TS/B/CX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53488
707. TomTaylor
4:17 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better
The only model support is one closed isobar for one or two time frames and that is only on a few model runs. Shear is actually very high, 30-40 knots. Satellite presentation hasn't changed much.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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