Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

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Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

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I just looked in my back yard and saw a duck with a life jacket on
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Quoting kmanislander:


What a day. Trapped indoors, rained out from golf 2 days in a row on a 3 day weekend. Worse, I didn't play on Saturday when it was sunny :-(

Hard Luck on the Golf!

Looking at the Tropical Waves in the Carib. and Atl....
It does seem that the Rainy Season is about here.
It's been a weird year so far, weatherwise.
Wondering what the RainySeason/Hurricane Season will bring....
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Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto for 21May6pmGMT:
30.4n79.9w has been re-evaluated&altered
30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.1w, 30.5n78.3w are now the newest positions
Its ATCF position was 30.5n78.3w
Its vector has changed from East at ~6.9mph(11k/h)* to East at ~8.1mph(13k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars

For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
TCB is TreasureCay,AbacoIslands . FHB is FernandinaBeach,Florida . 7W6 is Engelhard,NorthCarolina

The northernmost connected dot is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The dot endcapping the other end of the connected line-segments was its most recent ATCF position

The TCB dumbbell is the endpoint of its previous 21May12amGMT straightline projection,
LittleAbacoIsland*Bahamas, connected to its closest airport.

Copy&paste tcb-26.899n77.668w, kevb, ust, fhb, 08ga, 7w6, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 31.8n78.7w-31.7n79.3w, 31.7n79.3w-31.1n79.9w, 31.1n79.9w-30.7n80.1w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.8w-30.4n79.1w, 30.4n79.1w-30.5n78.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.

* Because 32.2n78.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 32.0n78.2w, an incorrect (direction&speed)vector was previously calculated from using that previous incorrect postion.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
(Skipped posting a map, so that incorrect vector was never displayed.)
Because an incorrect position produced an incorrect vector, the TCB dumbell shows an incorrect endpoint because of an incorrect previous straightline projection.
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow Kman,is really pouring there by looking at the cam.The good thing is that there are no cruise ships today.



One was in , but it left at 1:30PM
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Alberto remains a 40 mph tropical storm.
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Rain is coming back as Alberto gets the heck out of here and takes the dry air with him!

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Tropical Depression Two-E:



Tropical Storm Alberto:



Tropical Depression Three-W:

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Quoting stormpetrol:


Just went to Grand Harbor and it was surprising to see the change of the sea in Red Bay in just 20 minutes, dead calm when we were going and getting quite choppy inside on the way back, Amazing!! BTW its raining harder up your way than by my place, just a little under a mile apart!


I noticed that when I went out, and Sunset House which is near to you had an inch more rain than I have received assuming their measurement is also since midnight last night.
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Quoting nigel20:
Hey Tracker2K. What's up?


Hi Nigel, been very busy! I'm glad to see rain on our side of the Atlantic basin this year..
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Quoting Chicklit:


Wow, do you think the crab appearance last week was a harbinger for this flooding event?


You never know but those crabs swarming like that have preceded severe weather and hurricanes in the past. They come out of the sea onto land and cover everything. If you leave a door open they will invade the interior of a building.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I just lookead at several surface obs in that area and they all show a surface low near or on the coast IMO.


Just went to Grand Harbor and it was surprising to see the change of the sea in Red Bay in just 20 minutes, dead calm when we were going and getting quite choppy inside on the way back, Amazing!! BTW its raining harder up your way than by my place, just a little under a mile apart!
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My predictions for 5PM:
Alberto remains at 40mph for one more advisory
2E remains 35mph TD for one more advisory before being named tonight at 11

Also, I expect a typhoon out of this eventually:

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Quoting kmanislander:
230. weathermanwannabe 3:05 PM EST on May 21, 2012

Wet days ahead from that discussion. I ran an errand about an hour ago in my car but would not go out in a car again. Roads are flooded here in many areas and I had to backtrack a few times to avoid water about a foot deep in some areas. Many homes will be flooded out here today unfortunately.


Wow, do you think the crab appearance last week was a harbinger of this flooding event?
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Water Spouts can be Beautiful when viewed from afar huh
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow Kman,is really pouring there by looking at the cam.The good thing is that there are no cruise ships today.



I believe there was a ship in this morning. Stormpetrol mentioned that if I recall correctly.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Folks oftentimes forget that prolonged rains for the Islands, even from a weak tropical storm, or less as in this case, can cause massive problems. Please stay safe. Do they have a "don't drown, turn around" campaign down there?................ :)


No they do not. This island is very flat with no streams or rivers that typically catch drivers offguard. The worse that would happen is that your vehicle would flood out and shut off which is not a lot of fun, especially if water starts coming in over the door sill.
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Quoting kmanislander:
230. weathermanwannabe 3:05 PM EST on May 21, 2012

Wet days ahead from that discussion. I ran an errand about an hour ago in my car but would not go out in a car again. Roads are flooded here in many areas and I had to backtract a few times to avoid water about a foot deep in some areas. Many homes will be flooded out here today unfortunately.


Wow Kman,is really pouring there by looking at the cam.The good thing is that there are no cruise ships today.

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Quoting kmanislander:
230. weathermanwannabe 3:05 PM EST on May 21, 2012

Wet days ahead from that discussion. I ran an errand about an hour ago in my car but would not go out in a car again. Roads are flooded here in many areas and I had to backtrack a few times to avoid water about a foot deep in some areas. Many homes will be flooded out here today unfortunately.


Folks oftentimes forget that prolonged rains for the Islands, even from a weak tropical storm, or less as in this case, can cause massive problems. Please stay safe. Do they have a "don't drown, turn around" campaign down there?................ :)
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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

KYC011-069-212230-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120521T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BATH KY-FLEMING KY-
408 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN FLEMING AND
NORTH CENTRAL BATH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
GRANGE CITY...HILLSBORO...PEBBLE...PECKS RIDGE...RINGOS MILLS...
SHARKEY...SHERBURNE...TILTON AND WYOMING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 8352 3826 8352 3823 8356 3821 8357
3822 8359 3820 8361 3819 8361 3819 8363
3817 8363 3829 8386 3831 8384 3833 8385
3834 8385 3837 8379

$$

GEOGERIAN
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230. weathermanwannabe 3:05 PM EST on May 21, 2012

Wet days ahead from that discussion. I ran an errand about an hour ago in my car but would not go out in a car again. Roads are flooded here in many areas and I had to backtrack a few times to avoid water about a foot deep in some areas. Many homes will be flooded out here today unfortunately.
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another Alert,this one for the Dallas area..stay safe over there, heed your local warnings.........................AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TXZ103>105-117>121-131-133>135-222045-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

...AIR POLLUTION WATCH LEVEL ORANGE...

AIR POLLUTION WATCH - LEVEL ORANGE - FOR DALLAS-FORT WORTH.

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ) HAS ISSUED A
LEVEL ORANGE AIR POLLUTION WATCH FOR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
FOR TUESDAY, MAY 22, 2012.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE AIR POLLUTION IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
ON TUESDAY. OZONE LEVELS COULD REACH THE LEVEL ORANGE "UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" CATEGORY.

ELEVATED CONCENTRATIONS OF OZONE CAN ACT AS A LUNG IRRITANT.
INDIVIDUALS WITH CHRONIC LUNG DISEASE, SUCH AS ASTHMA AND
EMPHYSEMA, AS WELL AS THE ELDERLY AND YOUNG CHILDREN, ARE
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND SHOULD ATTEMPT TO AVOID
EXPOSURE. TO AVOID EXPOSURE, MINIMIZE EXERTION OUTDOORS DURING
THE MID-DAY TO EARLY EVENING HOURS OR STAY INDOORS IN AN AIR-
CONDITIONED ROOM DURING THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE, VISIT THE TCEQ OZONE DATA PAGE:
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/NAV/DATA/OZONE_DATA.HTML

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE FOLLOWING
AGENCIES:

TCEQ DFW OFFICE, 817-588-5800

NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
MS. JODY LOZA, 817-704-5609

NORTH TEXAS CLEAN AIR COALITION
MS. JENNIFER COHEN, 817-690-1921

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
MR. MARK SATHER, 214-665-8353

$$
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I see two spin on vis sat one off the coast of belize and anothe just NW of Rotan both have become elongated I expect both of them to merge and become better defined and rounded near 17.5N 87.0W
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dont stay outdoors for too long Texans..there is an alert out for you,especially those with breathing problems ok..stay safe over there............................................. ..TXZ199-200-213-214-227-237-238-221845-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
143 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

...OZONE WATCH ISSUED FOR TUESDAY...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE WATCH FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
TUESDAY...MAY 22 2012. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE
HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS.

ELEVATED CONCENTRATIONS OF OZONE CAN ACT AS A LUNG IRRITANT.
INDIVIDUALS WITH CHRONIC LUNG DISEASE...SUCH AS ASTHMA AND
EMPHYSEMA...AND THE ELDERLY AND SMALL CHILDREN...ARE PARTICULARLY
SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND SHOULD ATTEMPT TO AVOID EXPOSURE. TO AVOID
EXPOSURE...MINIMIZE EXERTION OUTDOORS DURING THE MID-DAY TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS OR STAY INDOORS IN AN AIR CONDITIONED AREA DURING THIS
TIME.

OZONE REACHING EXCESSIVE LEVELS AT ANY SITE IN THE AREA MAY MOVE TO
OR FROM OTHER SITES WITHIN THE AREA...DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION AND
OTHER FACTORS. EXCESSIVE LEVELS MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNSET. OZONE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IF AIR POLLUTION LEVELS ARE DETECTED AT
UNHEALTHY LEVELS.

$$
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Here is part of the PM discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk on current conditions. These have been great discussions/analysis over the years and one of my favorite links for the Caribbean come H-Season.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 21/00 UTC: WIDE MID/UPPER TROUGH PATTERN EXTENDS OVER THE USA...WHILE RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTEND TO THE SOUTH OF MAIN TROUGHS. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO EASTERN MEXICO/EXTREME NORTHWEST CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION WHILE TROUGHS PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN USA...AND RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WEST INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SHORT WAVE PULSE IS PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES INTO CUBA BY 24-48 HRS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE CYCLE. AT LOW LEVELS...A DEEP MOISTURE POOL PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT EXCEEDING 60MM OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AN INDUCED TROUGH ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION...WITH STRONGEST AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AS SHORTWAVE PULSE PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND THEN TO 25-50MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 75-100 MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS. ONCE SURFACE LOW/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD..PRECIPITATIONS WILL DECREASE TO 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. OVER THE BAHAMAS...EXPECT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP BY 60-84 HRS...WHERE EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS DE 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY.



Link to the full discussion below and this is a good one to save to your favorites menu as they really get into specifics of the large scale factors affecting the Caribbean Basin. Have also caught a few on the Blog over the years copping the analysis from these discussions and passing them off as their own analysis...... :)

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sunset house is showing 8.45" of rain now.


7.5" at my home which is about a mile away as the crow flies. Funny how that is.
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Quoting kmanislander:


What a day. Trapped indoors, rained out from golf 2 days in a row on a 3 day weekend. Worse, I didn't play on Saturday when it was sunny :-(
Sunset house is showing 8.45" of rain now.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


I have the pressure at 1011.9 and falling slowly
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TD-2E is looking quite a bit better this afternoon.
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2012 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Texas 30% 51%
Mexico 20% 40%
Louisiana to Alabama 60% 59%
West Florida 60% 71%
East Florida 30% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 60% 56%
East Coast of U.S. 20% 36%
Other 2012 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI
OCSI Forecast
Number of Named Storms 8
Number Intensifying into Hurricanes 5
Number of Hurricane Days 20
Number of Tropical Storm Days 58
U.S. Landfalls 3
Category 3, 4 or 5 Storms in the Atlantic Basin 46%
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This shows that the surface low is very elongated.
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Quoting pottery:

Heavy stuff there!
Looks like it will continue, too...


What a day. Trapped indoors, rained out from golf 2 days in a row on a 3 day weekend. Worse, I didn't play on Saturday when it was sunny :-(
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WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20
AXNT20 KNHC 211745 2012142 1745
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 78.8W AT 21/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 150 NM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND 155 NM SSE
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ALBERTO IS MOVING EAST AT 4 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SMALL WITH MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 90NM FROM
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ALOFT
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALBERTO IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE US COASTLINE...BUT DANGEROUS SURF IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF NE FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND S CAROLINA. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING
ALONG 12N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS. UPPER AIR
TIME-SECTIONS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE THAT THE WAVE PASSED
THE STATION AROUND 21/0600 UTC. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 16W-24W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N41W TO 6N41W MOVING W AT 15-20
KTS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A NWD SURGE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES LIE TO THE W ALONG THE ITCZ AND ALSO MATCH WHERE
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 43W-49W. MORE CONVECTION IS FARTHER W AND
WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 15N17W CONTINUING OVER WATER ALONG 8N23W 5N28W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N28W ALONG 7N39W 6N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-55W...AND
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 55W-63W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT IN MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS AT 15N88W TO THE SE
GULF AT 23N85W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SE
GULF. CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N E OF
88W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. EXPECT MOIST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR SE GULF AS THE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE
NE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N85W TO
15N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA W OF 77W
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-83W
INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE NE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING CUBA AND
JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO
HISPANIOLA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO VENEZUELA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SE
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE ITCZ REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WWD AND MAY IMPACT THE
SRN MOST WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE STILL WELL E OF THE
ISLANDS WILL APPROACH THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE US COASTLINE.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. FARTHER E...A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO NEAR 26N74W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 74W. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING PRODUCE
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 37N56W. THE
RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N52W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 34N40W TO 15N56W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC ALONG
33W SUPPORTING ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W...AND A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N18W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE AFRICAN
COASTLINE AND CONTINUES TO 35W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON
WXTLIST: done
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This should be Tropical Storm Bud at 5PM EDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting kmanislander:


I do see a spin but not sure if that is at the surface or associated with the 850/925 mb vort. Either way there is something there for sure.Baro Trend: Falling Rapidly
>
From Cayman Weather website.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I think its both. The surface spin is barely off the coast, while the 850/925mb spin is further to the east.


I was doing a little research and typing while you were posting. I agree. Shear is still the spoiler for this feature though. After falling off this morning the tendency map shows that shear has made a small recovery in that area. All in the ebb and flow I suppose.
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211932
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS INDICATED SOME
LIMITED CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA BUT THE RECENT TREND LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
PENINSULA WIDE ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS GIVEN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RECENT GUIDANCE AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. THIS TREND IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
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Quoting kmanislander:


By 6 we will have had a foot of rain !. Nearly 7 inches already today. I think this will keep refiring overnight though as diffluence is setting up over the GOH and the NW Caribbean now and that will promote continued convection

Heavy stuff there!
Looks like it will continue, too...
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Quoting nigel20:
whatever this ,cuba will get alot of rain this coming week
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Circulation becoming better defined now, just offshore of the Corozal/BZ/Chetumal/MX border.


I just lookead at several surface obs in that area and they all show a surface low near or on the coast IMO.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I do see a spin but not sure if that is at the surface or associated with the 850/925 mb vort. Either way there is something there for sure.

I think its both. The surface spin is barely off the coast, while the 850/925mb spin is further to the east.

No real way to tell for sure without a floater.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Circulation becoming better defined now, just offshore of the Corozal/BZ/Chetumal/MX border.


I do see a spin but not sure if that is at the surface or associated with the 850/925 mb vort. Either way there is something there for sure.
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Unnamed 02E T2.5/2.5 21/1745Z East Pacific
ALBERTO 01L T1.5/1.5 21/1745Z Atlantic
Unnamed 03W T2.0/2.0 21/1432Z West Pacific
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**Tropical Update**



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just updated blog page check it out

thanks

Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.