Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

+31

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.

Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.

Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)

Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS

Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)

Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.

Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)

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501. nigel20 1:34 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Ok. My daughters husband is from Mandeville and we have friends in Kingston. OK. Mandeville is a very nice and cool town...there are many Jamaicans living Cayman as well Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512

502. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:35 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Just checked the 18Z GFS. It shows a much larger time frame for lower wind shear from 48-96 hours. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

503. cg2916 1:36 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Just checked the 18Z GFS. It shows a much larger time frame for lower wind shear from 48-96 hours. Any other models showing that trend? Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

504. wunderkidcayman 1:37 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
well here is 36 Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5392

505. cg2916 1:38 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: well here is 36 At that point, is the AOI supposed to be below the shear belt? Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

506. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:39 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting cg2916: Any other models showing that trend? Yes. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

507. wunderkidcayman 1:40 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting cg2916: At that point, is the AOI supposed to be below the shear belt? yep very much so Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5392

508. CybrTeddy 1:41 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201

509. cg2916 1:41 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Yes. Quoting wunderkidcayman: yep very much so Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low... Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

510. cg2916 1:42 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: 18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic. Where is that coming from? Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

512. washingtonian115 1:42 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: 18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic. So now the Atlantic wants to have Beryl and the C storm all form in May?.lol. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618

513. AllStar17 1:42 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

514. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:44 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting cg2916: Where is that coming from? The low pressure in the Caribbean. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

515. cg2916 1:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The low pressure in the Caribbean. The CMC used to be Constantly Making Cyclones, now it looks like the GFS wants in on the fun! Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

517. WxGeekVA 1:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: 18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic. Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday... Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3312

518. wunderkidcayman 1:47 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting cg2916: Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low... I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5392

519. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday... Nope it is from this. :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

521. cg2916 1:49 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important! Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

522. wunderkidcayman 1:50 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting cg2916: It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important! true but shouldn't take too long Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5392

523. nigel20 1:50 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting AllStar17: Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now. The tropics is fairly active after a loll in tropical activity Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512

525. Tropicsweatherpr 1:51 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8124

526. cg2916 1:51 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000: look I see some white. NHC must be searching for that yellow crayon. I think Brennan dropped it after 93L. Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

527. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:53 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

528. cg2916 1:55 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Impressive. Earlier I saw a depressed center as if it was forming an eye or an eye-like feature. If this thing is a TD, then Alberto's the most beautiful, convection-filled storm to ever grace the Atlantic. Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

532. WxGeekVA 1:58 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Oh boy.... Here we go again! Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3312

533. wunderkidcayman 2:00 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000: what is that? I see some big tropical wave here maybe tropical depression tomorrow. oh no it start again now what it going to become a FISH STORM right Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5392

535. nigel20 2:01 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512

536. nigel20 2:01 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now? What's up Tropics? Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512

538. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:02 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
10 "!"s and he's gone... Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

539. j2008 2:03 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
I'm back, just had to go make room in the troll filter. I'm almost sure that 2E is a tropical storm and Alberto is dead. I see reading back that most of you think the same thing...... Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 201

542. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:05 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
You guys are doing good not quoting him. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

544. stormpetrol 2:06 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Why TD2E ain't a named storm yet? Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

546. yqt1001 2:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: You guys are doing good not quoting him. Generally the people who quote the trolls are worse than the trolls themselves. :/ Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184

547. stormpetrol 2:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting nigel20: OK. Mandeville is a very nice and cool town...there are many Jamaicans living Cayman as well Most of my best friends are Jamaican, we live like brothers! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

551. HurricaneHunterJoe 2:08 AM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now? Heck No! Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

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