Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
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Interestingly Enough, Points North of Landfall will receive Heavy Rain and Wind.
Points Close South will also Receive Wind and Rain.
Points South of Cape Canaveral will get the tail of the storm (A.K.A the Trough which is parked over the bahamas will retrograde west)
Yes, the 12z coordinate was 31.4N where the baroclinic low was, moved much farther north than the 6z coordinate. That's why the 12z suite all took it into South Carolina. Notice the 18z coordinate is now 31.2N, back with the southern, main center, where it should have always been.
Invest 94 L
As of 05/25 18:27 UTC:
Location: 31.2N 75.2W
Maximum Winds: 35kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Pressure: 1009mb
Last closed isobar: 1014mb
Radius of last closed isobar: 120nm
Radius of maximum winds: 70nm
Link
Station 41002
NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date: Fri, 25 May 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 31.1 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (143°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 74.8 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
what?..thats crazy!
Overcast Skies and Heavy Rain ATM.
A lot of heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Increased organization at MID levels compared to this AM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EDT Fri May 25 2012
...Watching the Tropics over this Memorial Day Weekend...
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
For consistency sakes we will continue to lean close to the GFS solution especially with respect to the future development and track of an area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast. There is
still a lot of uncertainly but it appears that the greatest impact (potential for heavy rain) will be beyond the short term period. The latest run of the GFS shows the low lifting to the northeast tonight
stalling several hundred miles east of Charleston as deep layer ridging builds north of the system. As the ridging continues to strengthen, the low tracks to the southwest moving inland over northeast Florida Sunday afternoon/evening. This is about 6 hours slower than the previous run so we backed off a bit on PoPs for Sunday.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through next Friday)...
The long term forecast confidence remains on the low side due to the uncertainty with how a developing area of low pressure just off S FL east coast affects the local region. See short term discussion for initial evolution. New models trending a tad slower and except for NAM clustering well. 00z GFS Sun night brings low to vcnty of Madison FL. ECMWF a tad slower brings it to ern most Big Bend where
it stalls thru Wed keeping wrn portion of area relatively dry before upper ridge breaks down as low shifts ewd. UKMET and CANADIAN similar but slightly to the N of ECMWF. Outlier NAM which does generally poor with tropical systems brings it to VLD then swwd into Apalachee Bay and will be discounted. Based on recent trends and the fact that GFS has shown more run to run consistency and favored by
hydromet prediction center, will lean towards it in forecast.
Thus, the large scale longwave pattern commences rather amplified. This is highlighted in the Nrn stream with weak ridging over West Coast, deep trough ewd across Plains with low over MT/ND, ridge ewd to Ern seaboard with axis Great Lakes thru OH Valley. Srn stream features weak troughing West coast to Srn Plains, and closed low over SE GA with ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface, short
term models seem to agree that low will be blocked by mid/upper ern ridge from moving too far N so it will be shunted back SWWD. On Sun night, this places 1011mb low underneath the ridge and invcnty of SE
Big Bend with high off Carolina coast with ridge wwd to TN Valley. This will provide for rain and breezy to windy conditions.
crazy but true
""NHC has a high probability of development however...currently the low is sheared and looks extratropical. Conds may become more favorable for development over the weekend""
A: Daytona, Florida
B: Jacksonville, Florida
C: Savannah, Georgia
D: Charleston, South Carolina
E: Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
F: Carolina Beach/Wilmington, North Carolina
G: Beaufort/Morehead City, North Carolina
H: Out into open ocean without landfall
Well...
There ya go.
AL, 94, 2012052518, , BEST, 0, 312N, 752W, 35, 1009
Orlando
Based strictly on a mild tendency for the globals to follow shifts in the BAM, I would not be surprised to see a slightly N shift in the 18z globals.
Well, this should be fun :) Interesting to see if this will be weaker or stronger than what Hurricane Irene did to my place in Clayton, NC. All we got was light rain and 40 mph winds from Irene. Maybe it'll be stronger and soaker this time when I visits Charleston.
Not surprising. There are starving people in those million dollar beach front homes for Gods Sake!
But they won't be as far north as the 12z suite, which was completely botched and had South Carolina landfalls as the majority due to improper initialization coordinates.
18z is already in. Notice the shift back south:
12z:
18z:
apparently it was some business owners who said the tropical advisories caused huge reservation cancellations and it turned out that the storm actually didnt hit, so they thought they could sue
A or B
Looks about Right.
Don't see many of the more well known models in that cluster. HWRF, Ukmet, GFDL, etc. Also, .2 degrees is approximately 14 miles. (At least in the 12z runs)
For the record, I only looked at the SFWMD plots to compare the 12 & 18z runs. On their, I did not see any heading in to SC. Except the BAMD
My only point is that I think a lot is still up in the air with this. How quickly that high builds will be the determining factor of whether we see wsw or sw movement. And how fast that movement is will play a big roll too.
I still think I have the best bet on landfall...Cape, to NC/SC border ;)
Impressive.
Wow!
Somewhere between B and C.
In lieu of finding that max intensity one I'll say C. TS with my prediction being 60mph +- 10mph.
@MikeMasco Masco what do you think? Goal posts would have to be Brunswick, GA to Georgetown, SC right now. Still 60ktws of shear
You must also realize that the southern center was racing like a gazelle northward between 12z and 18z...so a shift south by 0.2 degrees during that time means they definitely switched centers, and they were a lot farther apart at 12z.
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.18 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
plus 1 ts at 11pm ?
I don't know why as all the fun stuff will be in FL.
0Z 3 Day precip map
?
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