Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Something would have to be going on in the NE Gulf, and that would probably relate to a true pressure of 1000-995 mb.
It's funny, because I've seen it all with tropical systems transitioning, and morphing.
Convection should be firing all night as this wraps up.
It's our new tax rate. Sucks a little from everything.
i figure it will rain some more at some point or at least its likely to
Reminds me of Barry, there was a thunderstorm blowup over the LLC while the recon was in that lead to classification. That was also a sheared sheep, and there was a debate going on whether or not it was a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone. I'm leaning more tropical, as the pressure gradient is not as large as it would be (spread out), rather it's noticeably deeper by the LLC.
what program or website is this?
GREarth.
Since its still partly baroclinic, the sign and magnitude of differential horizontal vorticity in the near 700mb to near 500 mb layer is probably helping it out.
Still got dry air.
GREarth
Its a program...
More detailed view:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
437 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
AMZ374-261200-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
437 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO
8 FT...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT... SUBSIDING TO 6 TO
8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SE 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT... SUBSIDING TO 4 TO
6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.TUE...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.
$$
Pol etc,
Ill need at least $700...sigh.
Unless Beryl starts wrapping more convection around, or creates a lot more, it may not be that large of a storm.
According to the 12pmGMT ATCF, 94L's average travel-speed between 6amGMT and 12pmGMT (28.1n78.1w-to-31.4n76.3w) was an improbable ~36.5knots... ie 94L was outrunning its MaximumSustainedWinds AND its surface AND its 925mb AND its 700mb WindField.
(THANKS, AussieStorm, for the WindField maps)
Re-evaluation&alteration on the 6pmGMT ATCF put average travel-speed between 6am and 12pm (28.1n78.1w-to-30.0n76.4w) down to a plausible ~24.2knots.
what does that pic show?
Are you saying that the horizontal vorticity generated by the vertical wind velocity gradient (wind shear) is being turned vertical by rising air motions like in a supercell thunderstorm? I don't think the system has been convectively active enough for that, and wind shear is almost always more negative than positive for systems attempting to become warm-core.
Unless they're planning on naming it tonight, there won't be another TWO this evening.
i was not talk about the two
i was talking about this site
Link
Ah, I see. Apologies.
Here's a link for those who care to read it from the BBC:-
"Climate talks stall with nations 'wasting time'"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-182 10642
"China and the oil-producing states fear the breaching of the "firewall" between the traditional developed and developing worlds."
All a bit predictable as usual!
Wait until something really goes wrong!
thats ok lol
but away from the center?
That image is 14 hours old...
same here
I would make it a TD and put it at 35, and name it tomorrow.
Bud should be upped to 120mph at 8PM IMHO.
Date: 7:00 PM EDT Friday 25 May 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.94 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 6
Temperature: 82.8°F
Dewpoint: 60.3°F
Humidity: 47 %
Wind: NW 17 mph
Humidex: 91
Why? It has winds of 45 mph according to the buoy it passed over.
why would it be a TD?
already has the pressure and the winds of a tropical storm or in this case a subtropical storm
LOL
why
Just look at it! It's a monster! XD
lol j/k
Funny. :P
I'm looking at 10 meter winds on GREarth and you know what it shows on Bud? 35 mph.
most of the time the renumber occurs about 60-90 minutes before the next big update
so I would watch around 930pm for that to happen
no its not lol Bud is dead
Goes to show you it barely got better lol.
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