Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ITs actually been non stop this morning, though not very heavy, lots of energy left from 94L, if shear keeps low the tropical wave in the east/central caribbean now might develop into somthing!
These percentages should go up over the next couple of hours.
My man's chasing thunderstorms from 1500 miles away again huh? Pure rocket scientist I tell ya.
Looks to me this will be a slow mover and have a feeling those models will shift around a bit for the next day or so.
Here's a pretty nice webcam from Folly Beach, SC. May be a little far north by time it makes landfall, but still a good link to have.
I'm thinking a Landfall around the Georgia/Florida border.
But that would still give points east and north, heavy rain and some wind. (Its such a large system)
But the brunt of the Wind would be in North Florida/ Southern Georgia.
Flood maps.
I wish the Cuyutlán, MX. Radar was working, would give a nice view.
RW FLAG ON
MARK
18.00N/105.00W
The Models have remained constant with the track of 94L, (North FL or Georgia) but no one knows how intense it will become.
I assume, the Sooner it becomes closed, the faster it will be able to attain more organization.
It was a post on the last page, just set your number of comments show to 50. And you will be fine.
Didn't think about that. (Slaps self in face)
I do have it set to 50 and it still is messed up. Do you know what post it was so I can do delete it?
Who messed up the blog? I've been getting messages from bloggers who can't even get in. I can't post anything.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 33 Comments: 13104
ok if ya do things the old way
but maybe you can't remember
lol
850MB:
700MB:
500MB (still some work to do):
- For now, I do believe any further displacement to the N should considerably slow to be non existent. Which should give it enough time to pull itself together. I put the center around 31N 75.5W (with a couple small vortex(es)rotating around it).
- Shear is on the decrease and low level convergence still decent:
Try #72
Hopefully it will stop soon!
94L/INV/XX
MARK
30.86N/77.56W
Truest words spoken all morning.
In fact - in my simple minded opinion - I feel that if we look at history (and i havnt..just how it seems) - where it shows the track of it going this far in advance is probably more likely to be the place it wont be. Very rarely do they have it nailed this far out.
Nothing scientific in my post - just how it seems and knowing how often models get shifted over the course of 3 days.
There is the option of firefox portable off a thumb drive. I had to do that at my last work site.
It was comment #70, MikeVentrice.
Put him on your ignore list and the blog clears right up. :)
We shall see...
IMO, for what it is worth, the apparent LLC of 94L appears to be consolidating around 31N 75.3W. Seem right to you???
94L Elongated closed low at the surface but getting organized higher in the atmosphere.
Winds@1000mb (Surface)
Winds@925mb
Winds@700mb
Winds@200mb
Click Images for full size.
Hey I've done the same thing so don't worry. I had to have Doc fix one of my post a couple of months back.
Welcome to the blog! Just in time
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