Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't know...their basis for a conservative intensity forecast is that the upper level cold low to its west should act to shear it. However, isn't the low supposed to become stacked with Beryl and help induce the tropical transition? I'm pretty sure its supposed to.
OOHHH
OK
Even I think 50mph is conservative...
No love for me? ;D
I see how it is, Give me the cold shoulder ;D
Jk. Glad you're on too MiamiH09
I concur.
You instigator :)
Good to see ya pottery!
Um, what? If an upper low is stacked over a system like this, the result isn't going to be a warm core. At most, it would provide a region of low shear.
Same.
It's most recent position is 19.5n105.6w
Its vector had changed from North at ~8.1mph(13k/h) to North at ~6.9mph(11.2k/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from ~65knots(75mph)120k/h to ~55knots(63mph)102k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 990millibars to 998millibars
For those who like to visually track TSBud's path...
MZT is Mazatlan . PVR is PuertoVallarta . ZLO is Manzanillo
The southernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalStormBud became HurricaneBud
The northernmost dot on the kinked line was H.Bud's last position as a hurricane
The nouthernmost dot on the shortest line-segment is where H.Bud was declared to be TSBud again and TSBud's most recent position
The northernmost line-segment is a straightline-projection through the
H.BuD-to-TSBud-transition line-segment to the coastline.
The PVR-to-coast dumbbell shows 2 endpoints of the 25May12pmGMT and the 25May6pmGMT
straightline projections connected to their closest airport.
On 26May12amGMT, TSBud was headed toward passing over VillaUnion in ~1day9hours from now
Copy&paste mzt, pvr-19.832n105.364w, pvr-19.832n105.366w, zlo, 14.0n107.7w, 14.6n107.5w, 15.2n107.1w, 16.0n106.5w, 16.8n106.1w-17.5n105.7w, 18.2n105.6w, 18.9n105.5w, 18.9n105.5w-19.5n105.6w, 18.9n105.5w-23.019n106.203w into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
* For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 9.1n99.3w and the first 10.2n102.6w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 10.2n102.6w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
Good times, good times. LOL!
I thought the cones were going top be smaller this season?
you may not see it now but you will see it by tommrow or sunday
She's not going to be affected by upwelling once she starts moving.
I think that's in house.
I think we were all competing to see who could post it first...and I must say...I lost BADLY...LOL....
I told myself I wouldn't engage....but I couldnt resist
seems NHC didnt get the memo..
The upper level low becoming stacked with the system will aid in more thunderstorm activity due to increased instability produced between cool air aloft and warmer air at the surface. Thunderstorm activity can lead to tropical transitions.
Houses heavily damaged.
I had to chuckle at the handle..
Are you talking back to your elder?
Bud had a 10% chance of category 3 status on his first advisory. :P
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
The latent heat of condensation can warm the core after awhile, yes, but there are a few factors arguing against a quick transition. Hell, Lee lost tropical characteristics last year, under a similar synoptic setup to Beryl.
He always does that. Kids these days. :|
Disagree with intensity, however.
Increaed thunderstorm activity near the COC can be a characteristic of a tropical storm, but not the cause of a transition from tropical to subtropical.
That's unfortunate. Thoughts go out to them.
how bad?
I guess not. They even had a big write-up on it.
True; and you have to wonder about the "bowl" shape of the area for landfall and what effect that might have as well. Levi mentioned it in his blog earlier and Dr. M has discussed this spin-up issue in the Bay of Campeche. Really an interesting prospect to see if it will remain at TS all the way.
Ditto
Kids these days talk back to their parents, teachers, etc. if I ever did that, I would have been smacked upside the head.
No, but as Kori just stated, the latent heat produced by the thunderstorm activity can warm the core. It won't take much for this to transition to a fully warm core, as it is already a shallow one.
Yer Late !
Go to the back of the class....
Dvorak constraints. Gotta love 'em.
Good to see you back again!
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