Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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Tropical Storm WarningStatement as of 8:31 PM EDT on May 26, 2012
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...precautionary/preparedness actions...
Outside preparations should be completed tonight... before the onset of gusty winds and squalls on Sunday... which may cause outside activities to become dangerous. Secure any loose outdoor objects that can be blown around... or bring smaller items indoors if possible.
... Winds...
the latest forecast still calls for maximum winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph late Sunday into Sunday night. However as subtropical storm Beryl approaches... stronger winds are possible in squalls. Continue to closely monitor the forecast for any significant changes and be ready to act. These wind gusts may cause minor damage to tree branches and toss around loose outdoor items.
According to local weather station at Ponce Inlet, wind speeds are currently zero. Temperature is is 76.8 degrees F.
You have to have really good eyesight to read 8 pt type on the screen ("control +" doesn't help), and be able to touch type, otherwise the whole screen has gone before you can look up. Those of us who are technically challenged are not comfortable in there. It is a scrolling zoo.
I just want to see if they shift south due to the continued SW movement, my forecast has been set in stone since yesterday.
and all you lurkers
come on, we got 29, could you not just get us to 30?
Surely not insinuating anything however, the card will come up eventually, it's been a long while.
It's out now.
what is so great about tropical chat?
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BERYL MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
The models are staying in tight agreement, so i dont know.... But then again they were initialized at a northern point and do not account for the southern track it has taken.
We cant stay lucky forever
Absolutely, no doubt about it.
doin' stuff
talking about beryl, trivia, having fun
everyone is there and it goes faster than the blog
Andrea (2007)
(note the fires going on in Northern Florida, which Andrea helped spread)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF
40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF
CONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A
LITTLE FASTER. BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS
NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...AND
THEN WEAKEN IT AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BETWEEN 24-36 H. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL STALL AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
THE EASTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
48 H...BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN
DEFERENCE TO THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF. AFTER RECURVATURE...THE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR BERYL IS BECOMING MORE MOIST...AND THE
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF BERYL INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PROCESS.
BERYL SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
LAND. AFTER RECURVATURE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NEW FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
MAINLY ON THE LGEM MODEL.
THE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 30.8N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 30.4N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0000Z 30.7N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 35.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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I think I'll stay on the blog thank you very much. Too much print and so many posts at one time I can't keep up with it.
Here
They are forecasting her to become tropical in 24 hours.
11:00 PM EDT Sat May 26
Location: 30.8°N 77.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: SW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Beryl looks better to me
much more information going around on tropicschat:
Join Tropics Chat
Now that track seems to be certain, what about intensity, and that is the Wild Card.
"should"..... :)
Yeah, too much for me. I like a more leisurely pace, although the blog can fly sometimes.
For now anyway. With that much dry air around, it won't take too much for it to become re-entrained.
twice
Once, the first time was in June
should have stuck around, despite the high number of us teens.
Sounds like it's way above my pay grade or level of non-expertise ;)
Beryl shut it off some time ago, including the tongue to the SW however, convection is not ample enough to get rid of it efficiently. Maybe the gulf stream will give her the boost she needs.
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