Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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CycloneOz is broadcasting here
Link
It's most recent position is 31.6n76.3w
Its vector had changed from SWest at ~8.9mph(14.3km/h) to SWest at ~4.6mph(7.3km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ~40knots(46mph)74km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1001millibars
For those who like to visually track STS.Beryl's path...
EYW is KeyWest . FPR is FortPierce . COI is MerrittIsland . GGE is Georgetown,S.Carolina
The kinked line is as much of 94Ls path as would fit on this particular map scale
The Northernmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94L became SubTropicalStormBeryl
The NEasternmost dot on the longest straight line-segment was STS.Beryl's most recent position
The longest coast-to-sea line-segment is a straightline-projection
through STS.Beryl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The GGE dumbbell was the endpoint* of the 26May6amGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
The C0I dumbbell was the endpoint of the 26May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 26May6pmGMT, STS.Beryl was headed toward passing over IndianRiverEstates,Florida in ~3days8hours from now
Copy&paste eyw, fpr, coi-28.3779n80.6w, gge-33.292n79.172w, 25.1n80.1w, 26.5n78.7w, 28.1n78.1w, 30.0n75.6w, 31.2n75.1w, 32.3n74.9w, 32.3n74.9w-32.4n75.3w, 32.4n75.3w-31.9n76.0w, 31.9n76.0w-31.6n76.3w, 31.9n76.0w-27.39n80.26w into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
* For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 25.1n80.1w and the first 32.3n74.9w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 32.3n74.9w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
They're flying at a high altitude and have yet to reach the storm and descend.
At 26000 feet. Those aren't low-level winds. The plane hasn't descended yet.
another May Epac storm... could Beryl emerge into the Gulf?
URNT15 KNHC 261959
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 12 20120526
195100 3015N 07936W 3759 07991 0371 -219 -474 023032 033 011 000 03
195130 3015N 07933W 3758 07994 0370 -219 -398 019030 030 012 000 00
195200 3014N 07930W 3758 07994 0370 -220 -378 019030 031 016 000 03
195230 3014N 07927W 3758 07991 0369 -220 -370 017029 029 011 000 00
195300 3013N 07924W 3758 07991 0370 -220 -356 017029 029 015 001 00
195330 3013N 07921W 3759 07989 0370 -220 -351 017029 029 016 000 03
195400 3012N 07918W 3759 07989 0369 -220 -344 016029 029 017 000 03
195430 3012N 07915W 3775 07959 0368 -220 -342 016030 031 014 000 00
195500 3011N 07912W 3742 08021 0369 -222 -338 017031 031 016 000 03
195530 3011N 07909W 3780 07958 0375 -217 -337 014030 031 011 000 00
195600 3010N 07905W 3931 07669 0362 -196 -310 015030 031 011 000 00
195630 3010N 07902W 4030 07481 0350 -183 -245 020030 030 013 000 00
195700 3009N 07859W 4101 07349 0341 -176 -261 026030 030 008 000 03
195730 3009N 07856W 4177 07208 0331 -167 -220 026028 029 /// /// 03
195800 3008N 07853W 4249 07082 0326 -158 -231 018028 028 /// /// 03
195830 3008N 07850W 4406 06807 0312 -134 -231 017029 030 /// /// 03
195900 3007N 07847W 4582 06506 0294 -115 -212 012028 030 /// /// 03
195930 3007N 07845W 4776 06186 0277 -104 -140 004026 027 /// /// 03
200000 3006N 07842W 4918 05943 0252 -093 -101 002028 029 /// /// 03
200030 3006N 07839W 4933 05919 0246 -094 -110 001029 031 /// /// 03
Huh? The system isn't broad at all. It's center of circulation is very tight and compact.
Coordinates: 30.3167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 375.9 mb (~ 11.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,996 meters (~ 26,234 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 375 meters (~ 1,230 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 33° at 42 knots (From the NNE at ~ 48.3 mph)
Air Temp: -22.0°C (~ -7.6°F)
Dew Pt: -48.9°C (~ -56.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
That's 26,000 feet up. Wait until they descend to 5,000 feet.
Why?
Because I usually fall asleep around 1:00 after watching TV on Saturday nights.........Lol.
she is already interesting....i didn't expect wind shear to back off this dramatically this early on
URNT15 KNHC 262009
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 13 20120526
200100 3005N 07837W 4940 05914 0247 -089 -100 004031 031 029 000 03
200130 3005N 07834W 5139 05605 0235 -071 -083 003032 033 032 003 00
200200 3004N 07832W 5418 05194 0218 -053 -055 359036 038 /// /// 03
200230 3004N 07829W 5716 04774 0104 -033 //// 356032 034 /// /// 05
200300 3003N 07826W 6003 04388 0117 -009 -018 355032 034 /// /// 03
200330 3003N 07826W 6003 04388 0122 +011 +002 345030 032 /// /// 03
200400 3002N 07821W 6578 03650 0122 +033 +032 333029 031 /// /// 03
200430 3002N 07818W 6886 03276 0133 +048 +046 337033 034 /// /// 03
200500 3002N 07816W 7189 02921 0135 +067 //// 326030 031 /// /// 05
200530 3001N 07813W 7523 02546 0135 +090 +084 317028 030 /// /// 03
200600 3001N 07810W 7846 02193 0134 +112 +101 317028 030 /// /// 03
200630 3000N 07808W 8170 01853 0136 +130 +108 323023 025 /// /// 03
200700 3000N 07805W 8494 01523 0138 +144 +128 324022 022 /// /// 03
200730 2959N 07803W 8840 01184 0138 +161 +150 324024 025 /// /// 03
200800 2959N 07800W 9200 00836 0132 +186 +168 320025 026 /// /// 03
200830 2958N 07758W 9554 00500 0129 +199 +194 315028 029 019 000 05
200900 2958N 07755W 9604 00446 //// +203 //// 314029 029 019 000 01
200930 2958N 07753W 9582 00465 //// +203 //// 311030 031 019 001 01
201000 2957N 07751W 9591 00458 0108 +202 //// 312031 031 019 000 01
201030 2957N 07749W 9592 00456 0107 +200 //// 312031 032 022 001 05
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI
No. Why will it be interesting to watch?
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 19:59Z
Date: May 26, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
424. Gorty 4:14 PM EDT on May 26, 2012
Watching that too. Between the sheer drop, better organization today, and moistening in all quadrants, She may well become tropical, with a nice core of t-storms in place, by sunrise.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop
..click image for Loop
Link
Convection is slowly building on the north side, although cloud tops are still relatively warm:
(~ 28.33 inHg) 456 meters
~ 1,496 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 312 at 31 knots
(From the NW at ~ 35.6 mph) 20.0C*
(~ 68.0F*) -* 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 22 knots*
(~ 25.3 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 21.3 knots* (~ 24.5 mph*)
68.8%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 158 miles (254 km) to the ENE (67) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
At 20:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 200 miles (323 km) to the ENE (75) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
cloudtops in last 3 frames look like they are stacking near the center....deep convection near core
click image for Loop
ZOOM is available.
That isnt at the center, is it?
No, no where near.
~105 miles
02L/STS/B/CX
MARK
31.45N76.03W
Viewing: 401 - 451
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