Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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that's she's lopsided?!
Shoot, Troy would tozz dat un back easily.
..let um go Liz, hes a baby un.
1979.
I'm glad the urinary infection cleared up for ol 'Oz.
lol!!!
lmao
Irene was lopsided when she was navigating through the Greater Antillies. So was Isabel. I don't think it matters much.
Also maybe good to keep an eye on the SPC mesoscale discussion page. Usually they'll issue and MCD before a watch or even if a watch is unlikely they will discuss significant severe potential.
CENTER OF STS BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NERN FL AFTER
00Z...PER LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. GIVEN FCST OF LITTLE CHANGE IN
MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF OUTER WIND RADII BEFORE
LANDFALL...SIZE/STRENGTH OF WIND ENVELOPE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PRESENT
ESTIMATES. THIS LEAVES OUTER RIM OF FAVORABLE SHEAR N THROUGH SE OF
CENTER AT ABOUT 150 NM...SUPPORTED BY CLX RADAR VWP. THIS SECTOR OF
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...CONTAINING 0-1 KM AGL SRH IN 200-400 J/KG
RANGE...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT INLAND EXTREME SRN SC AND GA THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...AMIDST ADVECTION OF HIGHER SFC THETAE FROM ATLC.
SMALL STABLE LAYERS ALOFT...SUCH AS OBSERVED IN 12Z CHS RAOB...MAY
CONTINUE TO LIMIT BUOYANCY AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
CAPE SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH INFUSION OF MORE PURELY
MARITIME/TROPICAL BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR. MRGL TORNADO PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INLAND SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR JUXTAPOSITION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...THOUGH INLAND EXPANSION OF
THIS REGIME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITHOUT BENEFIT OF DIABATIC
SFC HEATING TO AID CAPE...
..CARBIN/HURLBUT/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2012
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ056-057-061-271915-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DESOTO...HARDEE AND WESTERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR GARNDER...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF WAUCHULA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING ZOLFO
SPRINGS...LIMESTONE AND SWEETWATER...UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF THE STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH
HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND
OTHER VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 2756 8149 2714 8119 2714 8129 2705 8129
2705 8163 2704 8205 2735 8204 2747 8204
2760 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 310DEG 16KT 2740 8180
$$
A little... she won't be able to strengthen much more unless she's a little more symmetrical
AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters FB linkie Dinkie
Not to mention there have been Hurricanes that have looked worse that this.
Remember Cindy in 2005?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ047-271930-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.
AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WEST OF PALM
BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MELBOURNE BEACH AND WEST MELBOURNE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
LAT...LON 2785 8046 2787 8048 2784 8050 2793 8077
2812 8076 2809 8059 2805 8058 2798 8054
2802 8054 2808 8058 2809 8058 2808 8055
2786 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 268DEG 26KT 2801 8070
$$
SEDLOCK
I think it's more detrimental for the average joe's perception. Here's weatherpeople making all these "big rain, big wind, big storm tides" predictions for Jacksonville. Jacksonville's going to get off on the light side of the storm and bang Brunswick and north GA coast gets smacked by the strong stuff coming around the COC.
how strong does it have it at?
if it is at 65mph+/- 2 and 997mb+/- 2 then it ok
Absolutely. Was originally a strong 70 mph TS at landfall but in post-season analysis was upgraded to a hurricane.
Water temps 78 degrees (could help to keep the storm from strengthening).
Station 41012
NDBC
Location: 30.042N 80.534W
Date: Sun, 27 May 2012 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350%uFFFD) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 13.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (37%uFFFD)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.60 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.2 F
Dew Point: 70.9 F
Water Temperature: 78.1 F
Love the smallest details in that satellite image... where'd you get this?
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather -webcam
Exception being if you are a homeowner, the insurance deductible increases significantly for hurricane damage.
From the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane Page
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products
I think that it might happen again with Beryl, at the rate we are going.
I would hope they would be upfront about this.
NOT MINE. I have Travelers and I have a straight up 10,000 wind deductible. Doesnt specify what kind of wind
Thanks!
Shes still pushing clouds in there though
Pressure of 1001
Has definitely strengthened a bit since noon. Looks a lot tighter.
Should take off at 3:45, yes.
Viewing: 601 - 651
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