Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Should take off at 3:45, yes.
Not sure if he has been here yet or even opened up his old blog here.
That area of NE Florida rarely gets hit with these storms... and goodness they need the rain.
lol
ok then
It's been able to fend off the dry air...
Was that the storm where people where questioning whether it going over the everglades that caused the strengthening as she was sucking up the warm shallow water?
dynamic
Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 27 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-009
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO
BERYL NEAR 33.5N 78.0W FOR 30/1200Z AFTER IT RE-EMERGES
OVER THE ATLANTIC.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
I have allstate. Normal deductable is 500. Hurrican deductable is 5000 :(
So far yes its done pretty well:
We'll see if it continues to.
No...
65mph isn't so bad on wind damage, and the storm has a nice, solid rain shield trying to form on the north side, so it just might be able to take a good chunk out of the droughts over there.
Should be good, as long as it stays moving and doesn't make too many tornadoes.
Other than that, we're ahead of schedule.
15 to 16 named storms this year, is my educated, but overly simplistic guess.
This was yesterdays TCPOD. The last mission will occur starting at 3:45 PM EDT.
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 26 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
C. 27/1945Z
D. 30.4N 80.5W
E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Doubt it, USPLN sensors have just caught that side.
This was yesterdays TCPOD. The last mission will occur starting at 3:45 PM EDT.
tyvm
Intensity models haven't exactly been great on Beryl so far, lol.
Not one bit!
Wonder how prone the St. Marys is to flooding...
Extremely east-heavy...and what the heck is that other cyclonic circulation to the east? It looks to be rotating around Beryl right now.
hunker down....that's what they need people 2 do now...
My contrarian / outlier opinion aside, Beryl should be taken seriously regardless how we classify it - it continues to slowly but steadily strengthen... While it may tighten up more around the center, Beryl has quite an expansive wind field, with TS force winds extending outward 90 miles retaining that characteristic effect of a subtropical storm - i.e., those living 60 miles or more away from the center may get the same brunt as those closer to center, the N side which will get quite a wallop... especially those well up the coast in GA should be as cautious and prepared as anyone near Jacksonville... Storm surge could have significant impact, obviously high sea swells / waves will batter the coast and rip currents are extremely dangerous - good call for many locations to close the beaches, as conditions deteriorate further this aftn / eve... Sure don't need to be out on the roads as that growing band convection around the center arrives to make driving treacherous (yeah, I know...).
Hope all along the path in N FL / SE GA are stocked up and settled inside for a long ride with Beryl's slow movement this holiday... as by now it should be clear that only a fool would underestimate Beryl's potential to cause havoc and loss of life...
Good luck, folks!
;)
What about the last Hurricane to hit FLORIDA in may?
The highest recon found at the correct altitude was 57 knots, which translates to roughly 65 mph.
Good luck, folks!
;)
Words of wisdom from a learned experienced observer and Fantastic oyster finder as well.
Thanx for the update Doc.
Stay Cool down dere.
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
30.09N/80.88W
FINAL APPROACH
I don't think it has ever happened before.
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