Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah, I see that one too.
Rainbound about to Affect Miami - West Palm
It is by will alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, the stains become a warning. It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.
Just waiting for the storm to hit here in JAX; wish I could fold space!
We just might have ourselves a hurricane.
3 pm update from SPC...
- SHUNTED LOW END TORNADO PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL
FARTHER S IN LINE WITH EXPECTED PATH OF DEEPER CONVECTION AND CENTER
TRACK.
3 p.m outlook tornado probabilities.
Our last storm with wind was Hurricane Jeanne - which struck our area as a strong TS (sustained winds about 65 mph with gusts to 75-80). The landscaping in the JAX metro area is all over the place. From beach areas and new suburbs with no trees to a lot like ours (about an acre covered with mature pines - oaks - gums - etc.). We also have tree farms in our county (pines). We lost some trees 100% during Jeanne - and parts of others. We trim our trees every year - but I still worry about them even in a TS. FWIW - the worst damage in this area in recent years was in 2008 (TS Fay caused a lot of flooding). We really need the rain right now - could do without the wind. Robyn
I still think recon will find about 70mph, just short of being a hurricane.
FLC009-272115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0040.120527T2011Z-120527T2115Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA
* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.
* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY
FISH CAMP...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PALM BAY...WEST MELBOURNE...MALABAR...MELBOURNE...MICCO...BAREFOOT
BAY AND GRANT
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF ON OR NEAR LAKES IN SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!
&&
LAT...LON 2784 8050 2782 8051 2782 8087 2808 8087
2812 8086 2816 8063 2815 8062 2810 8061
2809 8059 2786 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 254DEG 30KT 2799 8080
$$
67
Seeing 73 knot winds at around 7kft
Hope they have a place to stay. Besides being Memorial Day weekend - the JAX Jazz Festival - a major soccer game and some other events were this weekend. The town is pretty much sold out. Robyn
Cindy looked much, much worse. There have been less organized Hurricanes. Another example is Earl in 1998.
Nate form last year had a Dvorak intensity of 45mph at 75mph.
Beryl has a Dvorak intensity of 60mph I believe?
Should be in the core by 6pm.
Do you have a link to that?
It feels very tropical out today, low level cumulus are racing by at very low altitude and its very muggy outside, hopefully Beryl will tap some outer bands in the eastern gulf as it heads inland so we can get some heavier totals here on the west coast.
Not seeing the heavy winds yet. Soon, I think. waiting....
Beryl could be hurricane strength by then at the current rate of slow intensification.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&produc t=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Check the .5 degree velocities off of KJAX.
What are the probabilities that this storm may produce tropical cyclone-spawned tornadoes?
That's what I thought I heard earlier.
Also, same thing as him. Link please.
#751 -
Cosmic, Flbeachgirl, Pat (and others) - Notice how the ins companies figured with the hurricane deductible that they would never pay for changing a roof only again? LOL... right about what replacement for mine cost... with Allstate here, saw recently Citizens is raising rate 52% for their Terrebonne policy-holders... Yikes!
#787 -
LOL Guygee, yeah, we knew da surfers couldn't resist the op...
I hear ya on the rain, one of the biggest question marks with Beryl to offer adequate relief all along - chances do seem better than the outlook from a day or two ago, but... we'll see, hope ya get a drenching yet!
Okay, gotta run -
G'day and safe wishes all!
Looks like the W/NW Caribbean might be in for another wet wet week .
Link
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