Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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..click image to ZOOM
I'd wait until hard HH data comes in, but it seems like it may be necessary.
Two things...
It's 5pm and recon still has a ways to go.
They're probably waiting for the Recon data first before they change the stats for Beryl.
Anytime you have a 65mph storm heading for coast, you have to have hurricane warnings up for safety precautions
Maybe they should issue a hurricane watch
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:34Z
Date: May 27, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
20:35:00Z 30.650N 82.667W 552.9 mb
(~ 16.33 inHg) 5,070 meters
(~ 16,634 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 35° at 34 knots
(From the NE at ~ 39.1 mph) -3.8°C
(~ 25.2°F) -23.4°C
(~ -10.1°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:25:30Z (first observation), the observation was 29 miles (46 km) to the SW (221°) from Valdosta, GA, USA.
At 20:35:00Z (last observation), the observation was 39 miles (63 km) to the ESE (110°) from Valdosta, GA, USA.
Strong Winds with all of these..
Yeah...Should of checked there first before I asked on here. Anyway, a super interesting watch over the past 48 hours in terms of the models, comments, and lots of discussion on STS v. TS. This has been, and continues to be, quite the real time tutorial on transitioning.
Now hopefully the folks in the path have take the appropriate precautions for this eventuality.
This is best Beryl ever looked, personally I think she's a 75 mph hurricane now.
Thanks, Patrap. I'll take your advice, except for the Radio. Don't have one of those, but I've got a bunch of little dogs with big ears. Just as good! A bit noisier, tho....
Link
That's a pinhole
Make sure your NOAA alert Radio has battery Back-up and your cell Phones are fully charged.
Have a old sound powered Rotary Phone in case cell service is Lost.
The Storm will come in thru the overnight Hours so consider that as well.
Link
It's the download link directly. Enjoy!
It is certainly going to be close. The TCR at the end of the season may need to clear it up.
Don't think so...
Not only has she already gone tropical, but rapid intensification IS an issue with this one. Beryl is clearly, obviously in a RI cycle right at this moment.
The storm is strengthening so fast that the updates from the TPC are almost a moot issue. Yes, the storm chasers are doing a good job of tracking the current stats on Beryl but by the time all of the data is organized and appears in the public information statement, it is likely to be obsolete.
The official forecast has continually called for Beryl to lose strength or to remain static in intensity once she moves into the cooler shelf waters. This probably will happen but it could still reach minimal hurricane strength (even if not reported officially) before the storm reaches the cooler shelf water.
Also, strengthening storms are always more of a problem, at any strength level, than weakening storms are when making landfall. This is because a storm in a RI cycle will do a more efficient job of brining stronger winds from the convective cells down to the Earth's surface than will a weakening storm, normally.
Personally I doubt that Beryl will weaken at all from this point until landfall. The atmosphere around the storm seems to be moistening rapidly, including across the Florida peninsula.. with the heating of the day causing the eruption of thunderstorm cells over the land mass.. and this should provide enough momentum for Beryl to at least maintain strength before she reaches land.
what 0 ?
They need to
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048-049-052-056-057-061-272200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-HARDEE-HIG HLANDS-DE SOTO-
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 6 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
$$
TF
.
Start thinking so, that's an eye
The Mayor of JAX/Duval County was on TV earlier this afternoon along with other local public officials. He has been very responsible IMO. Closed down the Jazz Festival today - closed the parks - 86'd swimming at the beaches (we have had a lot of rip current problems the last day or two). Told people to get necessary supplies immediately - be prepared for power outages - don't drive in flooded roads - etc. A shelter has been opened for special needs people - and transportation arrangements are in place for them. The usual stuff. I wasn't watching TV most of the afternoon - but am now watching golf on local TV - and the local news people are breaking in with updates every once in a while. Robyn
* significant weather advisory for...
southeastern Palm Beach County
* until 515 PM EDT
* at 445 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Port of
Palm Beach to Coconut Creek... and moving east at 10 mph.
* The line of storms will affect...
West Palm Beach...
Boynton Beach...
Boca Raton...
and surrounding communities.
The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
Viewing: 901 - 951
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