Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I hope Oz aint broadcasting near any of those drought weakened Tall Pines
We haven't been canceled because we live in NE Florida - we built our house like a brick sh** house - and because we have never shopped around our other policies (like auto and umbrella) just to save a few bucks. Reckon State Farm won't drop us - but it will eventually leave the state. And then we'll self-insure. Robyn
NW, SE... same diff. The right-front quad is usually the strongest. In the southern hemisphere, its the left-front quad that is the strongest.
I'll post it again for you.
You have to look at it from the storm motion, in this case to the west, so the "right front quad" would be to the NW as seen from the satellite image.
That was actually a SE quad squall line.
That's probably a fair statement. Just some years back seemed the whole modeling thing was uncertain early in the season, calibrating to new atmospheric conditions, etc. Seems NHC/modeling did fairly well last year if memory serves (sometimes not) me. Technical progress continues, but good, old-fashioned forecasting, gut instincts are enjoyable to watch still.
Jax Pier Webcam: Link
The strongest part of the storm is based on the direction of movement. They always says that is the northeast quadrant. You have to turn the storm based on the direction of movement. Since the storm is moving west, the strongest part of the storm is on the northwest side since the storm's movement adds to the overall intensity. If the storm is moving north, it is the northeast side. Storm moving east, it is the southeast side, etc. That is why I put northeast quadrant in quotes because obviously it isn't on the northeast side, duh.
One of these days you will learn what that next to last column means and it's affect on SFMR readings in tropical depressions and tropical storms.
Well, I have to say that it has always been my understanding that the NE quadrant of a tropical storm is typically where the strongest winds are generally found even when moving to the West. That does not mean that the NW quad cannot have strong winds but I would expect the HH hunter to find the strongest winds in Beryl once it reaches the NE quad.
To their credit, the NHC has always advised that intensity forecasts are much harder and less reliable, and that you should add a category or two to be safe...
Patrap, Oz is broadcasting from Ferdinand Beach.
It's gonna take a few more tries and a sticky note on the wall though.
62 knots and 993mb pressure.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 21:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 21:16:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°03'N 80°18'W (30.05N 80.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 73 miles (118 km) to the NE (37°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,358m (4,455ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WNW (295°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 16° at 73kts (From the NNE at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:07:30Z
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 21:44Z
Date: May 27, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
HDOB Observations
21:45:00Z 28.917N 79.000W 843.4 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,552 meters
(~ 5,092 feet) - - From 216° at 27 knots
(From the SW at ~ 31.0 mph) 11.0°C*
(~ 51.8°F*) -* 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 30.3 knots (~ 34.8 mph)
112.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 21:35:30Z (first observation), the observation was 99 miles (159 km) to the E (87°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
At 21:45:00Z (last observation), the observation was 114 miles (183 km) to the ENE (61°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
Yeah.
They have done an excellent job on track and prediction of the development. The NHC normally does a fantastic job, so I'm not going to bash them anymore. I just didn't like the extreme conservatism on the strength forecast.
Well, it is very nearly a hurricane.
Oh, Im not knocking them..they do an excellent job, they are the experts but its scary when you have just recent upgrades with some of the models and they still dont get it right
3 words: OMG PROBABLY HURRICANE!!!!!!!
993.2mb at centre, SMFR peak of 62 knots and flight level peak of 82 mph.
A whole lot of impressive. She may actually be able to attain hurricane status yet.
It's a borderline TS/hurricane.
URNT12 KNHC 272151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/21:16:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
080 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 62 kt
E. 295 deg 24 nm
F. 016 deg 73 kt
G. 294 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z
;
So far recon has found 62 kts surface winds and 993 mb pressure.
Found 72 mph surface winds
You missed it. She became a major hurricane while you were gone, but has weakened since then back to a minimal one.
Hurricane Hunters and finding that Beryl is nearly a hurricane.
That's what I saw too
No one is to mention that K word...
Lol.
Thanks for all the responses guys.
I surrender :-)
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