Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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..unfortunately..
Ah...
Good to see they changed the pattern for another possible center fix.
Might be by request of the NHC boys.
Wow, you can see that blow-up of strong convection closing off the eyewall rather rapidly.
I'd say that if the NHC doesn't upgrade her to a hurricane, they likely will in the season review.
This is the livestream from moonlightcowboy. The waves are getting much bigger and there is some damage to the pier
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 23:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 22:59:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°13'N 80°25'W (30.2167N 80.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 75 miles (120 km) to the E (95°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,358m (4,455ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 127° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the east
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:46:30Z
So, BAMM medium, or Deep?..or, shallow?
Me sure don't have a clue.
Looks to be almost null in movement last half hr.
New convection firing on southside of possible eye which seem further east?
It looks like a couple of the supposts holding up the pier might have broken loose! I need another set of eyes, I might be imagining this.
Jim Cantore says it's strengthening, Brian Norcross says it's weakening.
Dat'll keepa dem Tourist who we're gawking earlier in the Restaurants easily.
Hi, been reading this blog forum for years. for some reason my browser would never work before to join/log in...guess I shoulda done that update ages ago LOL Well happy about it though, been loving it ever since I came across wunderground...especially all the satellite images everyone posts! Look forward to tropical season the last many years since finding it, as much as I did back when I first had the Weather Channel and sat up late at night after work for the tropical update, back in the mid-90's. I probably won't post much, but just wanted to say hello as have been reading some of your comments for a long time! Cheers!
URNT12 KNHC 272321
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/22:59:20Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
080 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 58 kt
E. 048 deg 40 nm
F. 127 deg 75 kt
G. 048 deg 41 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-E
M. C50
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 22:46:30Z
;
MARK
13.97N/80.93W
lets bring to life chris
Id go with Jim on this one
they should argue on air, could be the best ratings TWC has had in years lol
I respect your opinion, but to say that there has been "NO evidence" to support Beryl being classified as a hurricane isn't accurate. In operational forecasting such as this, one has to recognize that there is always some inherent subjectiveness in the process.
The 62 kt. SFMR and the 71 kt. flight level wind in an intensifying TC, like Beryl, most certainly suggests that Beryl could have already attained minimal hurricane intensity or could do so at anytime.
One also needs to recognize that it is highly unlikely that RECON was/is able to sample the absolute strongest winds in the storm. All of these factors most certainly suggest that Beryl may have already obtained hurricane intensity or could do so at anytime.
I'm not saying the data is 100% conclusive and that there is no subjectiveness in how one interprets the said data, but to make the claim that there is, or was "NO evidence" to suggest Beryl could be a hurricane and only a "Slight" chance it could be one, is simply not an accurate representation of the data.
As I stated in a previous post, issuing a Hurricane watch (based on such data) would've been the more prudent action to be taken by the NHC, and I would respectfully argue makes a very significant difference in how the public reacts to taking proper precautions, which is one of the most important
aspects of operational forecasting.
URNT12 KNHC 272321
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/22:59:20Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
080 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 58 kt
E. 048 deg 40 nm
F. 127 deg 75 kt
G. 048 deg 41 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-E
M. C50
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 22:46:30Z
;
Nothing much as far as cyclonic vorticity and mainly just a product of upper divergence, but will still provide a soaking to much of the western Caribbean.
Why don't you believe that Beryl is a hurricane?
I think it is, the problem is the NHC will very likely be conservative and call it a 70mph TS.
It matter not what he thinks, it only matters what the NHC think.
link to this reflectivity? :0)
233500 3001N 08036W 8428 01454 9967 +161 +142 259019 020 001 003 03
I would just say that the SFMR reading is questionably (rain contaminated) and that this data came after the 5 PM advisory. The storm is close to hurricane status, I just don't think it is there yet. I also would question what good issuing a hurricane warning now would do when landfall is iminent. I think it could do more harm with people going out to try and "prepare" at this late stage and get caught in the storm. My 2 cents.
I understand. In that case, do you think that the NHC will issue a Hurricane Watch say from the FL/GA border to St. Augustine?
Based on the available data and the typically conservative "operational" approach of the NHC, I too suspect that the NHC will go with a 70 mph TS at the 8 pm intermediate advisory.
lol! bring on the jell-o
Winds?
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