Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Winds?
My guess is 70mph 993mb.
Eyewall is finally closing up.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
PECOS COUNTY...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN PECOS COUNTY...
Danica still running I believe.
Back in da way bac pack
: )
no update yet from the nhc
...TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHING THE COAST HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS. THE FOLLOWING ARE
OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS:
MAYPORT...48 MPH AT 625 PM
JACKSONVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION...48 MPH AT 656 PM
CRAIG FIELD...46 MPH AT 649 PM
ST SIMONS ISLAND...43 MPH AT 504 PM
ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT...41 MPH AT 716 PM.
At this point it doesn't even matter what they think. The difference is just a few MPH of winds. The storm itself it still what it is.... and given that it is too late to make preparations, the name (tropical storm or hurricane) is completely irrelevant. They should've issues a hurricane watch this afternoon, so people had at least a few extra hours to prepare/take it more seriously. Then could upgrade to a warning with this advisory (if it truly is a hurricane).
The whole issue is about giving people a warning and time to prepare.... the name doesn't matter. Although seeing as how it is stronger than expected (and maybe still strengthening), people along the SC/NC coast may want to keep an eye on it for mid-week, once it goes back over water. If it is stronger now, it may not weaken as much, and may be a real threat to those areas. For now, the people in N Fla and S. GA are just going to have to deal with it, it is too late to prepare, and calling it a hurricane at this point doesn't help anyone.
Still, they should correct their mistake (if they are wrong) and name this thing a hurricane/put up warnings as soon as they come out with this 8pm advisory.
I am beach front so the wind is quite gusty, the power flickered a few times aleady :)
This is no Wilma but Jax is not prepared ...trust me on that.
I think they should, but it's entirely up to them at this point. If Beryl is declared a Category 1 hurricane, it will be right as it crosses the coastline.
That's a pvc drain pipe for dumping your fish guts down. The Pier posts are concrete, they wouldn't flop like that.
It's really not bad at all now, people are coming back to the beach to look, wife just took the dog for a walk (oops, she's back, says the winds are really heavy). But not knock-you-over.
234130 3021N 08040W 8426 01427 9921 +195 +114 071017 018 002 003 03
234400 3028N 08046W 8435 01430 9958 +151 +145 060055 057 044 004 00
234430 3030N 08046W 8425 01448 9967 +147 +144 061061 063 046 003 00
234500 3031N 08047W 8430 01448 9983 +130 +130 062067 069 047 005 01
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
No.
8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
US Watch/Warning
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
I have been talking about a "Hurricane Watch"-not once mentioned a Hurricane warning. I am saying that Beryl was a significantly intensifying strong TS at both the 2 pm and 5 pm EDT advisories, and it was still very plausible that it could achieve hurricane intensity prior to landfall. That should've encouraged the NHC to issue a Hurricane Watch. To me, there's no conceivable rationale as to why a "Watch" was not issued and still hasn't been.
The most prudent action would've been to isssue the Hurricane Watch at either the 2 pm or 5 pm EDT advisories, and I'd suspect some would take greater precautions than they would've otherwise.
probably a fresca too :)
LAP 147 Patrick in 34th 1 Bush, 2 Johnson, 2 Biffle
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
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