Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012 +37
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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1751. Ameister12 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Less people posted the advisory then I expected.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3428
1752. stormwatcherCI 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038
1753. Walshy 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618
1754. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
we got one more advisory to go before landfall. hurricane or not guys?

We do?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25137
1755. nrtiwlnvragn 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


LOL, took three of em to decide.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8916
1756. Jedkins01 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Alright, there are still no hurricane warnings, and they are still saying "little change in strength is expected" common, it still has the chance to be a hurricane before landfall, what is going on down there at the NHC? I've never seen them act this way with a tropical cyclone in all my years, seriously...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321
1757. CybrTeddy 11:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
If the recon finds another reading soon that says hurricane, then we'll probably see a special advisory.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
1758. allancalderini 11:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
I don`t think if the NHC would call her a hurricane now because they didn`t put hurricane watches but if beryl is a hurricane we would know it in post-analysis
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2017
1759. cyclonekid 11:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

Nice wording, but no Hurricane Watch.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1619
1760. WxGeekVA 11:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
It's Beryl-y below what it needs to be a hurricane...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311
1761. Patrap 11:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
992.0 is usually a norm Cane threshold so the wind may respond and go Higher as she is still well offshore.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1762. jaxbeachbadger 11:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting Surferdude:
about to lose power in jax beach


Where are you? I'm on the 8th floor looking south and the whole south side of the city is brightly lit.
Member Since: April 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1763. Progster 11:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Storm surge at Fernandina beach is around 3.7 feet and the tide is starting to rise...

Link

surge could hit 5 feet above max tide...potential for some serious coastal erosion and some flooding alright.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412
1764. Patrap 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1765. Stormchaser2007 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


LOL, took three of em to decide.


That's a real good group right there.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243
1766. stormpetrol 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Time: 23:41:30Z
Coordinates: 30.35N 80.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,427 meters (~ 4,682 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.1 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 71° at 17 knots (From the ENE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Dew Pt: 11.4°C (~ 52.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 2 knots* (~ 2.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think Beryl will stay over water just long enough to reach hurricane status, if you look at fixes Beryl is actually moving WNW/NW imo. which will give her more time over water!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394
1767. Jedkins01 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If the recon finds another reading soon that says hurricane, then we'll probably see a special advisory.



But professionally, they should have issued a hurricane warning by the 5 PM advisory tonight, and for sure by now at 8... I've seen many situations like this where they have, and it was always a good call, why they aren't here, I don't know. They are usually really on it when it comes to warnings, especially when systems are this close to land.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321
1768. Patrap 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
See one TVS in that onshore band if you watch it closely.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1769. GeorgiaStormz 11:54 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
.....THE BERYL IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
-NHC


lol
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7050
1770. stormpetrol 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


LOL, took three of em to decide.

LMAO! One had to break the tie!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394
1771. Titoxd 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
I don't think I have seen three forecasters in the byline before...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
1772. Inactivity 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Beryl still has a chance of becoming a hurricane, still has about 3 - 5 hours
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1773. xcool 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
people need Get ready for hurricane season this year meaing Buizness imo thanks
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
1774. WxGeekVA 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Eye is closed...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311
1775. Ameister12 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:
It's Beryl-y below what it needs to be a hurricane...

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3428
1776. robyng 11:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting TampaCat5:
I respectfully disagree with most of the sentiment here. One SFMR reading does not a hurricane make. Much ado about nothing. There is currently NO evidence that Beryl is or will be a hurricane. A slight possibility? Yes. Is this significant? This close to landfall, no.


According to the current path - the center of Beryl - such as it is - will pass 2-3 miles south of us. My husband and I just spent a pleasant hour on our (covered screened) porch watching the storm. And the birds on the bird feeder. I'm not expert at this stuff just from eye-balling - but I think sustained winds are about 30 mph or so - with gusts in the 35-45 mph range. The birds didn't have any problems on the bird feeders. Our next door neighbors left their "floaty stuff" in the pool tonight - and it is still in their pool. During Jeanne - 65 mph sustained winds with higher gusts - we lost a couple of trees - and many tree limbs. Perhaps if wind speeds increase tonight - that will happen again (although I hope not). We have had damage similar to what we had in Jeanne during winter northeasters.

I am really not sure where most people who post here are coming from. I have been through my once in a lifetime storm (fingers crossed) - Andrew. It is moronic IMO to root for a storm to get stronger just because you live in Kansas and have nothing better to do. Or just to say you have lived through a hurricane.

Also - you know - most of us who live in hurricane country kind of get it today when it comes to web sites with useful information (I personally have about 5-6 favorites). No useful purpose is served by posting links to websites like the NHC or others we all know about. Nor is speculation by amateurs welcome by most of us (and "rooting" for a TS to develop into a hurricane is even less welcome).

Serious professional and quasi-professional analysis is of course welcome. And - although I personally know the drill when it comes to storm preparation - I would never criticize a message that dealt with that - even in the most basic terms. Because there are many people who are fairly new to hurricane country - especially older retired people - who really don't have a clue. On my part - my husband and I have a simple rule. Stay for a tropical storm - leave for a hurricane. And when we're dealing with a storm like Beryl - where the odds of it becoming a hurricane a day or less before landfall are like close to 0% - we stay. With larger storms - the handwriting is usually on the wall at least 2-3 days in advance. Robyn
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1777. txjac 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
watching the Jacksonville pier cam ...really wavy at the moment
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
1778. StAugustineFL 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
I'm about 10 miles inland from the coast. Unless something changes, and quickly, no way this storm can be 70-75 mph
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 567
1779. Patrap 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Avila is cool and well, friendly guy with quite a bit of Humor too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1780. nrtiwlnvragn 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's a real good group right there.


I'd agree on 2 of them, need to see more of Kimberlain's forecasts. Been reading Avilia for about 30 years.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8916
1782. MiamiHurricanes09 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Landfall will probably occur around midnight. Should yield some extra time to intensify. Regardless of it being a tropical storm or hurricane, winds will still be enough to knock ya' power out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1783. trHUrrIXC5MMX 11:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Quoting cyclonekid:
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

Nice wording, but no Hurricane Watch.


yeah.. like we didn't know that... thanks for the lecture
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7873
1784. Autistic2 11:57 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
I don't understand. Here I am all ready for the storm here in St. Augustine and the strongest gut at my house was about 15 mph with about 1/2 inch of rain. Where is the almost hurricane storm?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
1785. BDAwx 11:57 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
"AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT."

Why would they say this but not have hurricane watches in place? Seems fishy to me - sounds like outside forces are at work in our midst.
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509
1786. MiamiHurricanes09 11:59 PM GMT on May 27, 2012    
Strongest SFMR reading:

234900 3042N 08055W 8424 01494 0024 139 126 066066 067 052 003 00

Some 80kt flight-level winds; high rain-rate though (I gotcha NRT). ;)

235130 3049N 08100W 8432 01509 0057 120 120 059078 080 049 013 01
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1787. Surferdude 12:00 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:


Where are you? I'm on the 8th floor looking south and the whole south side of the
city is brightly lit.


Flickered only....I am facing the beach :)
Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1788. Ameister12 12:00 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
NHC might sneak in a special advisory before Beryl makes landfall if the find enough proof to upgrade her to a hurricane. Who knows?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3428
1789. CybrTeddy 12:00 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
80kt flight level winds found with a high rain rate though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
1790. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
23:45 Viz

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1791. WxLogic 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Just 5MPH more....
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4666
1792. NICycloneChaser 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Large swath of 75-80 knot winds on the NW side. Flight-level, that is.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1956
1793. MAweatherboy1 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
She's sooooooo close

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6312
1794. MrstormX 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
000
URNT15 KNHC 272354
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 27 20120527
234530 3032N 08048W 8432 01453 9992 +130 +130 064070 072 047 005 01
234600 3034N 08049W 8420 01470 9997 +130 +130 067073 076 045 005 01
234630 3035N 08050W 8432 01464 9999 +140 +140 069072 075 046 003 01
234700 3037N 08051W 8424 01482 0008 +138 +136 066069 071 047 002 00
234730 3038N 08052W 8429 01476 0009 +140 +129 067066 068 048 000 00
234800 3039N 08053W 8428 01482 0016 +139 +131 065065 066 049 002 00
234830 3041N 08054W 8431 01482 0018 +139 +127 064065 066 052 003 00
234900 3042N 08055W 8424 01494 0024 +139 +126 066066 067 052 003 00
234930 3044N 08056W 8433 01488 0029 +130 +130 068068 070 048 003 01
235000 3045N 08057W 8428 01493 0036 +130 +130 071072 076 046 004 01
235030 3046N 08058W 8429 01500 0036 +130 +130 072072 077 046 004 01
235100 3048N 08059W 8430 01506 0047 +130 +130 073076 078 049 004 01
235130 3049N 08100W 8432 01509 0057 +120 +120 059078 080 049 013 01
235200 3051N 08101W 8444 01494 //// +115 //// 059075 079 046 012 01
235230 3052N 08102W 8429 01514 //// +106 //// 059075 076 049 016 01
235300 3053N 08103W 8428 01521 0076 +110 +110 063077 078 049 015 01
235330 3055N 08104W 8415 01538 0077 +120 +120 064072 075 044 016 01
235400 3056N 08105W 8425 01528 0072 +129 +128 064071 073 043 007 00
235430 3057N 08106W 8431 01525 0073 +128 +125 065069 070 042 007 03
235500 3059N 08106W 8414 01542 0081 +120 +120 066065 067 044 009 01
$$

Could be contaminated
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221
1795. CybrTeddy 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Even if it's because of high rain rate, not all of them can be contaminated by a high rain rate IMO. Flight level winds do support a Category 1 hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
1796. CothranRoss 12:02 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
On composite reflectivity, there looks like there is a second eye on the eastern side. Any thoughts?
Member Since: April 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
1797. Bitmap7 12:03 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    


Umm what happened to Dmin in the southwestern Caribbean?
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
1798. kmanhurricaneman 12:03 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
hello guys ,just lurking in the bground having a few laughs at some of the comments, that blob in the sw carribbean looking more interesting and actually growing, possible Chris tried the ascat but that missed completely,check it at next pass.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
1799. Patrap 12:03 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
1800. WxGeekVA 12:04 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    
Quoting Titoxd:
I don't think I have seen three forecasters in the byline before...
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


I bet they voted 2-1 to keep it a TS.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311
1801. cyclonekid 12:04 AM GMT on May 28, 2012    

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1619

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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