Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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I'm pretty sure this is a hurricane now whether they actually sample the highest winds or not, and if not it will be before landfall. Really impressed with how quickly this has come together. Totally different from what we were seeing last night.
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Quoting Gorty:


So what if the western semi-circle is just below hurricane but the rest is at hurricane?


Then it's a hurricane lol.
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Curious what quadrants recon has flown through, I would imagine the NW has the best chance of hurricane force winds.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
67 MPH at the surface found but only one reading
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Recon just barely started investigating, too.

Looks like a hurricane to my untrained eyes.
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Getting real interesting now :)
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1059. Gorty
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And that's the western semicircle. Eager to find out what's lurking in the northeastern and northern quads; probably a hurricane.


So what if the western semi-circle is just below hurricane but the rest is at hurricane?
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Quoting weatherh98:


Did they label it contaminated


Nope. An accurate reading. I might be eating crow now saying that there was nearly zero chance of Beryl becoming a hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
1057. cg2916
Right now, recon says 70 mph with 993 mb pressure.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Will be bad news for some here though!


Yeah, plus some of my pepper plants already drowned from the rain last Monday. Could be a few more inches headed this way real soon.
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1055. ncstorm
I could only find one evacuation

Beryl was still well offshore, but officials in Georgia and Florida were already bracing for drenching rains and driving winds. Campers at Cumberland Island, which is reachable only by boat, were told to leave by 4:45 p.m. The island has a number of undeveloped beaches and forests popular with campers.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Surface winds hit 62 knots on that pass...

That's dem close.


Yeah, on the western semicircle at that...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Surface winds hit 62 knots on that pass...

That's dem close.
And that's the western semicircle. Eager to find out what's lurking in the northeastern and northern quads; probably a hurricane.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Peak SFMR was 62kts.


Did they label it contaminated
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Surface winds hit 62 knots on that pass...

That's dem close.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Beryl looking like the real thing now. As much drought as the area has had, doubting slightly cooler shelf waters will have much of a detrimental effect. Slow movement, low shear, more fuel is apt to increase intensity.

This one may be sneeking up on everyone. Sure hope the media there is doing the job.
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Quoting Patrap:
This B-A-D Mojo.

A silent crowd, not much prep, and well, tourista's beaucoup, and a Nightime landfall.

What possibly could go wrong?
It's a recipe for disaster potentially. All in the effected area should be concerned, but I'd be most concerned about the tourist beaches, primarily in Georgia from the looks of things.
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1048. 7544
Quoting avthunder:


So the storm hititng us here in Lighthouse Point is really a feeder band? I though the sky looked a little different than the normal afternoon thunderstorms...


yeap this all formed a hour ago pretty unexpected tho so surpise from beryl but could there more before shes done
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How long will HHers be out there tonight?
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Watching the recon data on Google earth, any idea how often it updates? Beryl is looking good, i believe if they find supporting winds, NHC will issue special update indicating she is a hurricane.
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Peak SFMR was 62kts.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mom got other plans kman best be ready as can be gonna be a long season for many


I agree. Hard to believe we have already spent so much time on the blog and the season has not even officially begun !
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1042. Patrap
, but living through and the days and weeks after, no gasoline, having plenty of spam. I was specialist after Camille I thought, then Katina made me a peone. Somebody will suffer somewhere with even mininum storm.

Amen,

folks used to whisper Camille in Hushed tones..

Now it's ,well what happened in 05 almost buried those memories save for bringing them back 10 fold after it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Ameister12:


It's still offshore pretty good, I will be on for landfall between 12-2
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000
URNT15 KNHC 272114
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 11 20120527
210530 3021N 08053W 8433 01494 0051 120 120 016066 067 045 015 01
210600 3019N 08051W 8428 01496 0049 110 110 011064 065 047 016 01
210630 3018N 08050W 8433 01484 0046 110 110 010066 067 047 020 05
210700 3017N 08048W 8429 01481 0033 110 110 006070 073 056 036 01
210730 3016N 08046W 8428 01475 0018 120 120 016062 073 057 034 01
210800 3015N 08044W 8434 01456 //// 122 //// 009053 055 061 044 01
210830 3014N 08043W 8432 01456 //// 127 //// 018056 061 062 042 01
210900 3014N 08041W 8417 01458 //// 128 //// 025052 059 058 040 01
210930 3013N 08039W 8448 01425 //// 133 //// 043047 052 059 024 01
211000 3013N 08038W 8424 01457 9975 140 140 040036 051 054 018 05
211030 3012N 08036W 8432 01445 9965 150 150 045031 034 047 012 01
211100 3011N 08035W 8419 01455 9960 158 158 041028 030 034 005 00
211130 3010N 08033W 8429 01444 9958 162 151 037025 026 018 003 00
211200 3009N 08032W 8434 01437 9955 162 150 032023 024 013 002 00
211230 3008N 08030W 8426 01443 9951 166 149 031021 023 012 002 00
211300 3007N 08029W 8428 01442 9947 172 144 030017 019 013 001 00
211330 3006N 08027W 8432 01434 9944 175 140 021014 016 008 001 00
211400 3005N 08025W 8430 01433 9939 180 135 013012 015 005 003 03
211430 3005N 08023W 8429 01432 9935 181 135 014011 012 002 001 03
211500 3004N 08022W 8435 01425 9935 177 142 032008 010 000 002 03
$$
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
1039. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:


I wouldn't bank on it staying quiet that long.
mom got other plans kman best be ready as can be gonna be a long season for many
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Quoting 7544:
lol no one expected her to effect so fla again


So the storm hititng us here in Lighthouse Point is really a feeder band? I though the sky looked a little different than the normal afternoon thunderstorms...
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1037. Seastep
Quoting HrDelta:
You know what would be useful? Hurricane Hunter Drones. So we could monitor the storms in a more constant manner.


They are actually supposed to be deploying drone boats on the surface this year.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, indeed. Sneaking up from the South for tonight :-)


Will be bad news for some here though!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Pressure down to 993.5mb. (And still not at the circulation).

211500 3004N 08022W 8435 01425 9935 177 142 032008 010 000 002 03

Winds near hurricane force in the western semicircle according to SFMR readings.

210700 3017N 08048W 8429 01481 0033 110 110 006070 073 056 036 01
210730 3016N 08046W 8428 01475 0018 120 120 016062 073 057 034 01
210800 3015N 08044W 8434 01456 //// 122 //// 009053 055 061 044 01
210830 3014N 08043W 8432 01456 //// 127 //// 018056 061 062 042 01
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
Quoting robyng:


Citizens is not backed by the full faith and credit of the State of Florida. It is a stand-alone entity created by statute. Robyn
I didn't say they were backed by the full faith and credit of the State, though effectively if not explicitly they are. Citizen's has the authority to have any underfunded liability covered by increased premiums, surcharges, and fees for all in the state, something no private insurance company can do.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Good Evening, Looking like it might be another wet week here for us looking at thisLink


Hi, indeed. Sneaking up from the South for tonight :-)
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Quoting MrstormX:
What does the 75.9 mph winds mean, isnt that flight level.


Yea it's 51.7 sfc wind
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Quoting weatherh98:


Lol ya they might


This is drama but at this pace we are heading to surpass the 2005 season by leaps and bounds. But 2 names storms in May could be a fluke which is likely but we will see
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 21:05:00Z
Coordinates: 30.3667N 80.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.8 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,515 meters (~ 4,970 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.4 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 19° at 66 knots (From the NNE at ~ 75.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.0°C* (~ 53.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 12.0°C* (~ 53.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think they will find Beryl a hurricane.


They will need to find 65 knots sustained. Highest so far was 45 knots at the surface estimate.
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1028. Grothar
Weare getting very heavy downpours and storms in Southern Florida. Heavy lightning. I wonder if it is a tail from Beryl?



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What does the 75.9 mph winds mean, isnt that flight level.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting kmanislander:


:-)


Good Evening, Looking like it might be another wet week here for us looking at thisLink
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Hi SCwannabe @925 trouble is not knowing more than NHC, but living through and the days and weeks after, no gasoline, having plenty of spam. I was specialist after Camille I thought, then Katina made me a peone. Somebody will suffer somewhere with even mininum storm.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


NHC should have issued Hurricane Watches....


Absolutely agree. I think they underestimated the potential for strengthening.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting RitaEvac:
NOAA might want to re-evaluate their numbers for 2012


Lol ya they might
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1022. Patrap


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 21:04Z
Date: May 27, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10


HDOB Observations

21:05:00Z 30.367N 80.900W 841.8 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,515 meters
(~ 4,970 feet) 1005.4 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 19° at 66 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 75.9 mph) 12.0°C*
(~ 53.6°F*) 12.0°C*
(~ 53.6°F*) 66 knots
(~ 75.9 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 68.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor



Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 27 miles (44 km) to the NE (37°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.

At 21:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 45 miles (73 km) to the E (86°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone WARNING 02L
02L/H/B/C1
MARK
30.07N/80.13W
FINAL APPROACH
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Quoting BahaHurican:
we have looked at it from time to time... and r wondering about the pple who say once Beryl is done we will have a quiet time until after 15 June....


I wouldn't bank on it staying quiet that long.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
NOAA might want to re-evaluate their numbers for 2012


To be honest, I think they're range is wide enough to account for most, if not all eventualities.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting Patrap:
This B-A-D Mojo.

A silent crowd, not much prep, and well, tourista's beaucoup, and a Nightime landfall.

What possibly could go wrong?


NHC should have issued Hurricane Watches....
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Time: 21:05:00Z
Coordinates: 30.3667N 80.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.8 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,515 meters (~ 4,970 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.4 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 19° at 66 knots (From the NNE at ~ 75.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.0°C* (~ 53.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 12.0°C* (~ 53.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think they will find Beryl a hurricane.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think that Beryl is either feeding in energy from the GOMEX, or the U shape of the FL-GA coast is helping the cyclonic rotation out, increasing the windspeeds (think of the Bay of Campeche during Hurricane Karl, same principle)


The latter.
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1015. ncstorm
5pm update from NHC, which Carolina coastline..it makes a difference..

BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.