Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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In other US Weather, SPC Page a lighting up watch wise
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting flbeachgirl:


And keep in mind that many insurance companies (including mine - Citizen's - because they're the only ones who would write a policy for us) have completely excluded coverage for things like screen enclosures, spas, etc. I'm praying our screen holds especially since it faces the north. =(


I've lived in coastal FL for 40+ years - and I don't recall a homeowners' policy from any company that ever covered screens - pool enclosures - pools - spas - landscaping - etc. BTW - we're currently insured by State Farm Florida. Robyn
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Folks, tropics chat is open.

You must now enter.
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...swooosh, aawwwwwww...

Hmmmm, I haven't felt that presence since...?



20:02 UTC Viz




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
861. Gorty
Was those outer bands on her western and southern side always there from lets say 12:00 PM today?
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860. 7544
beryl wants to go out with a bang shes about spread her bands to the whole fla pinisular all the way back to miami . shes just might surpise all of us just before she makes land fall . stay tuned
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Severe thunderstorm warning near the Melbourne area in association with Beryl.
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She's getting close to closing off an eyewall..
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
As of the last observation at 20:15:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: ESE (106°)
Location: 28 miles (45 km) to the WNW (299°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
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If this had another day over the gulf stream it would be even more impressive. Let's hope we get some significant rain out of it.
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Quoting Gorty:
Is that really her eye? Could she become a hurricane?

Maybe in the formative stages. I think she will reach 70 mph winds by landfall time (just below hurricane status)...but I did concede on my blog update that she has a remote chance of being a minimal hurricane by landfall. Either way...the impacts are going to be the same....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 504 Comments: 3688
Tropical Cyclone WARNING 02L
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Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540
Quoting BahaHurican:
Beryl is looking ever more impressive on visible, but cloud tops are not impressively high as yet.



It's going to be very, very close in terms of Wind Speed.
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Looks like the W/NW Caribbean might be in for another wet wet week .

Link
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Nice updrafts occurring in the northern and northeastern semicircles.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Tropics chat anyone?
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848. Gorty
what the heck, am I seeing that right??? Is she getting outer bands on her western side now?

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NW Quadrant becoming more intense on JAX radar.. Western semicircle is beginning to fill in...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Beryl is looking ever more impressive on visible, but cloud tops are not impressively high as yet.

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Pretty amazing how much Beryl has organized in the last 24 hours...
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540
Jeez this blog moves fast... and I'm slow!

#751 -
Cosmic, Flbeachgirl, Pat (and others) - Notice how the ins companies figured with the hurricane deductible that they would never pay for changing a roof only again? LOL... right about what replacement for mine cost... with Allstate here, saw recently Citizens is raising rate 52% for their Terrebonne policy-holders... Yikes!

#787 -
LOL Guygee, yeah, we knew da surfers couldn't resist the op...
I hear ya on the rain, one of the biggest question marks with Beryl to offer adequate relief all along - chances do seem better than the outlook from a day or two ago, but... we'll see, hope ya get a drenching yet!

Okay, gotta run -
G'day and safe wishes all!
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Do you have a link to that?


That's what I thought I heard earlier.

Also, same thing as him. Link please.
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842. 7544
wow what a big diffrence a hour makes looks at the bands now building to the west of beryl covering the whole west side of fla looks interesting from the big bend heading to the est all the way down to miami but will they produce any rain .
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Link

What are the probabilities that this storm may produce tropical cyclone-spawned tornadoes?
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Do you have a link to that?


Check the .5 degree velocities off of KJAX.
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Beryl putting on a show before landfall. From what I'm seeing, she may just be a hurricane before she comes ashore. Impressive.
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Beryl's becoming better organized with more rain bands around the center. The local Jax radar picks this up well. May be some gusts to hurricane force along the coast later tonight.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&produc t=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Should be in the core by 6pm.


Beryl could be hurricane strength by then at the current rate of slow intensification.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540
Putnam Co., W of St. Augustine and the St. John's... have been getting some fast moving cels of heavy rains and some wind for a few hours now. More and more rain, some lightening, and less and less sun. Just finished getting the roofover bolted down, thank Goodness!!!

Not seeing the heavy winds yet. Soon, I think. waiting....
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Outer bands are starting to get a bit frisky in Central Florida, lol.


It feels very tropical out today, low level cumulus are racing by at very low altitude and its very muggy outside, hopefully Beryl will tap some outer bands in the eastern gulf as it heads inland so we can get some heavier totals here on the west coast.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This is going to be a very interesting HH flight.

Seeing 73 knot winds at around 7kft


Do you have a link to that?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540
Checking in from Ormond by the Sea. Winds are kind of NNW 15-20 and gusty in squalls. Waves are huge. Squalls seem to pass over and slam Daytona/Port Orange area. I just talked to a dude that I saw surfing and he asked me where he was because he drifted so far south that he didn't even have an idea of where he was. His 2 buddies were still out and I thought they were pelicans bobbing in the surf. Turns out they drifted almost 5 miles south from High Bridge to Lagerheads in Ormond. How do I post an image from my phone?
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Quoting yqt1001:
Will recon arrive on time for the 8pm advisory?


Should be in the core by 6pm.
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Quoting HrDelta:


Cindy looked much, much worse. There have been less organized Hurricanes. Another example is Earl in 1998.


Nate form last year had a Dvorak intensity of 45mph at 75mph.

Beryl has a Dvorak intensity of 60mph I believe?

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If Beryl is a hurricane, it's not exactly the textbook definition of one...



I still think recon will find about 70mph, just short of being a hurricane.


Cindy looked much, much worse. There have been less organized Hurricanes. Another example is Earl in 1998.
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Will recon arrive on time for the 8pm advisory?
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Quoting Patrap:


Indeed, they are following I-10 right to Jax.




Hope they have a place to stay. Besides being Memorial Day weekend - the JAX Jazz Festival - a major soccer game and some other events were this weekend. The town is pretty much sold out. Robyn
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If Beryl is a hurricane, it's not exactly the textbook definition of one...



I still think recon will find about 70mph, just short of being a hurricane.
true but thats because we are to experience the birth before landfall
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This is going to be a very interesting HH flight.

Seeing 73 knot winds at around 7kft
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825. Gorty
Is that really her eye? Could she become a hurricane?
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Weather radio just went off here in Southern Brevard County.
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When is the next ASCAT pass of Beryl?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC009-272115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0040.120527T2011Z-120527T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY
FISH CAMP...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PALM BAY...WEST MELBOURNE...MALABAR...MELBOURNE...MICCO...BAREFOOT
BAY AND GRANT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKES IN SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 2784 8050 2782 8051 2782 8087 2808 8087
2812 8086 2816 8063 2815 8062 2810 8061
2809 8059 2786 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 254DEG 30KT 2799 8080

$$

67
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If Beryl is a hurricane, it's not exactly the textbook definition of one...



I still think recon will find about 70mph, just short of being a hurricane.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7845
Beryl's tail is starting to look inpressive... Thinking there it will pretty nasty by tomorrow when its over florida
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Quoting SirCane:
Sure looking like a Hurricane to me.
will be next pass
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
We can thank our governor for allowing that one, along with a guaranteed 10% increase in premiums at a minimum every year, year after year.
Yeah I've been thanking him everyday in my prayers after I got hammered with that 60% increase last year...OK, they are not really prayers...
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Quoting charlottefl:
Another thing to keep in mind, 65 would fall into the classification of severe weather, even though it might not do as much damage as a stronger cane, it shouldn't be downplayed. Especially in an area that probably has not seen strong winds in some time. Not sure what the landscaping is like up there, but a lot of older trees that haven't been through strong storms+rain=bad news.


Our last storm with wind was Hurricane Jeanne - which struck our area as a strong TS (sustained winds about 65 mph with gusts to 75-80). The landscaping in the JAX metro area is all over the place. From beach areas and new suburbs with no trees to a lot like ours (about an acre covered with mature pines - oaks - gums - etc.). We also have tree farms in our county (pines). We lost some trees 100% during Jeanne - and parts of others. We trim our trees every year - but I still worry about them even in a TS. FWIW - the worst damage in this area in recent years was in 2008 (TS Fay caused a lot of flooding). We really need the rain right now - could do without the wind. Robyn
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Winds of Beryl approaching Florida, Georgia (winds as of last update):

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 540

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.