Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT
* AT 938 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
JUST NORTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
UNF...SAN PABLO...FORT CAROLINE...MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND
AND TALBOT ISLAND.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION
AND COULD PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
LAT...LON 3011 8150 3013 8163 3057 8153 3052 8143
3051 8144 3049 8141 3041 8140 3040 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 200DEG 28KT 3015 8155
$$
WOLF
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/WordPress
Sorry this should work.
Yeah and what's worse, there's no real explanation why there is NOT a lot of convection developing in the gulf this morning. Which drives me nuts...
Everything supports a lot of rainfall developing in the gulf, why is it not there yet? God only knows...
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over. It's just a matter of when it turns. Don't think it will become a wrong way, It'll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns.
2557 aspectre: I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits. Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama) as a tropical storm.
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.
2558 Mclem1: Certainly would be amazing! I suppose we never really know until all is said and done!
2597 EcoLogic: Are you thinking of Major Hurricane Ivan, 2004?
Mismemory. TropicalStormFay was never a hurricane, and
At that point it's an extratropical low.
Passed through Lakeland around 4:30 pm
- In and out of heavy winds and hard rain showers.
- The sky to the North through East was predominantly drak grey through black.
- Ceilings veriable from 200-300 feet to unlimited on the West, Northwest
Moderate to Heavy winds remained from the North along I-10 to Tallahassee. Beyond skies cleared and winds reduced.
NOt a good driving day for younglings
NC. Will this storm have any chance to strengthen before skirting our coast?
May 28, 2012 - 12:45 UTC
And it dropped a tree limb on my car that cracked the windshield.
Yeah, I think those percentages are just an indication of maximum winds, rather than actual classification as a hurricane.
Check Historical data
Link
Link
Up to midnight last night
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03
Thanks
12 hr KJAX Loop
This doesn't even make sense, I'm down right mad.
Weather is beautiful here --- very hot. Needed it to dry out the soggy land a little. I do love the green grass though.
How about in the Bahamas?
Give it some time for daytime heating to kick in it should be more numerous then. Maybe not exactly what everyone was hoping for but should enhance the flow, but undoubtedly inland areas are gonna receive the most rain today..
Not that I'm complaining. I agree it's great to have green grass and not have to water my cilantro and oregano I just planted...
Figures.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AMID A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS/CANADA...AND WITH AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON
DAYS 4-5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THAT SAID...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONGST 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF AMPLIFICATION/TIMING.
WHILE THIS GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES SPECIFIC DELINEATIONS OF
30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK AREAS...SEVERE TSTMS /POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/ CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED. FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT PENDING MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PRIOR
DAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC STATES /ESPECIALLY
PER THE FASTER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION/. THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..GUYER.. 05/28/2012
No day time heating will increase instability over land and decreases it over water. It's part of the diurnal cycle, if there wasn't plenty of showers/thunderstorms over the gulf during the early morning then its not likely there will be much during the day...
My point is the chances of significant gulf convection does not improve with daytime heating. However, the east side of the state will of course get plenty of rain again.
Beryl should be downgraded to a tropical depression in a little bit, however, it likely won't dissipate over land. As a trough approaches from the west tonight and tomorrow, the cyclone will turn northward and then race northeastward. The combination of favorable thermodynamics, an unseasonably strong trough, and TD Beryl should make for a significant rain event across North Carolina and South Carolina. Some areas could pick up over 6". After reemerging off the East Coast, Beryl could briefly regain tropical storm status before it begins extratropical transition and moves out to sea.
After that, the Atlantic is quiet...and we better enjoy that quiet. If we are able to get two named storms in the same location, including one that nearly became a hurricane in MAY, then we need to prepare ourselves for what we could be seeing in the actual season.
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts Friday, June 1, 2012.
Here are a few official recording from the NWS that were entered into the Daily Climate Reports for yesterday. Nothing impressive at these sites
Jax. Int.
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 39 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (20)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 56 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (30)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 16.3
ST SIMONS ISLAND
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 36 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (80)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 48 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (70)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 19.4
WIND (MPH)
ALMA
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (360)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 26 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (360)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.9
What do I mean by that, well for several weeks now every increase in rainfall has brought plenty of rainfall to the east side of the state and lacked for the western side, even if the rain event normally would favor the west side of the state. I just don't get why convection refuses to develop in the gulf with rainfall systems the past several weeks. Even now with a tropical system, thunderstorms were developing over land at night yet not over the gulf. It makes absolutely no sense and is inconsistent with what I've seen over the years living here.
It feels sometimes the weather gets a mind of its own and wants to spite you sometimes, lol...
WNW
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