Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 — Blog Index
WNW
I suggest u take it down, now... u may skinge by if you do...
Yup....I corrected the comment below. Thanks; Do you actually live near Brickell Ave down in Miami? I don't live there anymore but one of the best spotted trout holes I have ever fished is down there about 50 yards off of Bayview Dr. and 14th in Biscayne Bay.
That's not how things typically work with a westerly flow though, a westerly flow normally means the best chance shifts eastward during the day and the air stabilizes on the west side of the state during the day.
My point is in this pattern most likely if it was going to be a what day it would have started wet, that is typically how the west flow works.
Interesting, as the Turnpike does not go all the way to I-10 and Lakeland Florida is off of I-4 west of Orlando
Yea, I think we've missed our chance for anything significant. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few showers develop but not much more than that.
We got hit very hard with the southern eyewall last night. We are now just getting showers and wind but I expect instability to pick up and light up scattered storms with isolated tornadoes.
I'm a Incoming Freshmen at Florida International University (Doral,FL), that is where the National Hurricane Center is based and where the "wall of wind" is based. I'm currently decideding between Meteorology and Civil Engineering. But I Visit Downtown Miami All the time, and it is my favorite city.
In the future i may want to Chase Hurricanes for fun, I just bought my first weather station, so im on the right track.
I'm just on here to help out, give information, and learn.
- BrickellBreeze
By the way North Carolina needs to watch this it could reintensify to a moderate tropical storm.
You Said you were getting 50mph winds with 60mph gusts last night?
How did you get home? lol
Made me laugh so hard I forgot what I was going to type...
Pretty cool.. people don't really associate nearly-hurricanes with rainbows. Is that from this morning, or yesterday afternoon.
11:00 AM EDT Mon May 28
Location: 30.5°N 82.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
It happened after I got home
Yeah looks like you guys picked up a few inches of rain and some damaging winds last night, I bet it was pretty exciting!
As for us, I was really putting a lot of hope on my forecast of rain for the west side of the state. Sorry guys, but everything came together like a thought but rain bands still are not developing in the eastern gulf like they should be. I just don't get it, everything is there that normally should and many times before has sparked plenty of activity in the gulf, but isn't now...
With the heating your side of the sate should continue to see more bands of showers and thunderstorms.
This Pattern looks like 2004, But in the past years, Many people where forecasting a year for landfalls for Florida, but it never verified, so i'm just going to stock up, but i will set my expectations low.
WW, your in Tallahassee right? Seems like you might get some rain from this.
What were the highest winds recorded at your location? Seems like the high wind reports were sporadic at best.
We have been praying for rain in Tally but no luck yet. Visible Satt loops are deceiving looking from the top down. We had some nice dark low level circulation for the past two hours and it was looking good for some rain. Now, the Sun is peekng through a bit and only a few minor drizzles so far. Hopefully we will get some more substantial rain later today.
Even Noaa doesn't have a handle on the season with a 9-15 storms predicted this year.
Maybe Afternoon thunderstorms will fire up and give you guys some relief. Hopefully.
That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?
Yeah. They should really learn to narrow their numbers down...
Actually I was driving home in at least 40 mph. winds with showers, the eye wall came in an hour later... That's when things got ugly, heard banging noises and stuff.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA...FAR NE FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281500Z - 281630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE FL AND SERN GA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 60 STATUTE MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL.
MESOANALYSIS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2.10 INCHES EXTENDING NEWD FROM BERYL'S CENTER ACROSS NE FL AND SE
GA WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
TO EXHIBIT ROTATION. AS BERYL MOVES SLOWLY WWD...THE THREAT MAY
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
RESULT IN SFC HEATING IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE. STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012
Seriously, the CAPE is nearly 5000 just to the west of Tampa Bay, moisture is very high and there is a tropical storm just to the north, but no thunderstorms are developing in the gulf? How is this possible...
We must have hope that at some point, whatever is limiting convective development breaks, with CAPE at 4000 to 5000 some powerful rain bands have got to get going eventually. There is a massive amount of low level moisture for convection to feed off of. Let's just hope our need for rain doesn't come in the form of damaging thunderstorms. Any time you have that much CAPE you have to be careful for severe weather, especially given that strong winds aloft are present because of the circulation of Beryl.
Gov. Rick Scott, First Lady Ann in Bahamas to watch Attorney General Pam Bondi tie the knot
by Dara Kam | May 26th, 2012
Just back from a trade mission to Spain, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is in the Bahamas today for Attorney General Pam Bondi%u2018s hush-hush wedding to her long-time beau, Tampa ophthalmologist Greg Henderson.
Scott and his wife, First Lady Ann Scott, are among the guests at Bondi%u2019s Ritz Carlton Grand Cayman affair. Bondi, 45, Florida%u2019s first female attorney general, is divorced.
While it was no secret that Bondi and Henderson, who is 15 years her senior and has four grown children, intended to marry this spring, the attorney general kept details about the wedding mum. Bondi%u2019s press secretary did not respond to questions about it Saturday.
But Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, spilled the beans on her Facebook page Friday, posting a picture of Bondi captioned %u201CThe blushing bride serving punch to her friends on Cayman Air.%u201D In a previous post, Dockery said: %u201CThe plane is filled with her wedding party.%u201D
Bondi, a GOP darling who never ran for office before becoming attorney general in 2011, was a frequent contributor to FoxNews prior to her election and remains a regular guest giving updates about Florida%u2019s lawsuit against President Obama%u2019s administration over the health care law. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling in the case in August.
Actually Joe Bastard one of their chief meteorologists is pretty good
Its still too early to say that. However with that High pressure in the Atlantic some storms from Cape Verde could find themselves Hitting the Gulf coast or the Eastern seaboard.
Looks like it might be trying to head north
My Forecast for this season is:
15 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
He isnt with accu anymore, he is the Chief Ding dong at weatherbell.com now.
This map shows a weak EL Nino:
he's not associated with them anymore.
post 2743,and 2745 I agree.I just don't see El nino developing that fast and really having a effect on the upcoming hurricane season.I'm with the higher range on this of 15 name storms.
Never heard of weatherbell.com he should of stay with Accu
Lol, He's now with inaccurweather.com
Perhaps while you slept, the Cayman Islands annexed the Bahamas... ?? heh heh : )
Viewing: 2701 - 2751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 — Blog Index