Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Exactly what I said
Has anyone thought that the cool waters may actually really hurt this storm and weaken much of the convection it currently has?
...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 79.9°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Pretty colors....
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 79.9°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
About time it is fully tropical
I am not there so I cannot really say, but it looks like some pretty good rip tides are forming there. Watch how the water is moving near the shoreline. I see what appears to to be a strong left to right water movement. Hard to say for sure when you are looking through a damp camera lens.
YES!!! FINALLY ITS A TS NOW!!!!!!!! You all know I really wanted her to become a fully TS.
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
US Watch/Warning
000
WTNT32 KNHC 271753
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED AND NOW
HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON
MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...
150 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH...83
KM/H. A COASTAL MARINE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ST. AUGUSTINE
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...67 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
What? I just wanted to fit in ;(
finally I can continue my counting...
Beryl once again a hair south of the NHC forecast track from 11 a.m. I'm beginning to think this will make landfall in St. Augustine again.
We won't get much haha
I walked the beach in St. Augusting 2 days age, water temp. only 77 degrees.
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED AND NOW
HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON
MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...
150 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH...83
KM/H. A COASTAL MARINE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ST. AUGUSTINE
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...67 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
its scheduled for 6pm - 2200Z
Took about 24 hours to make the transition since Beryl closed out the dry air intrusion yesterday ....
110 miles east of jocksonville, moving west at 10 mph... so, looking at a 12am-2am landfall.
remember at 30.1 n and 79.9 w it is directly in the middle of the gulf stream
Should be 6 PM EDT
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 26 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
C. 27/1945Z
D. 30.4N 80.5W
E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Takeoff at 3:45 PM per this schedule.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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