Beryl makes landfall, weakens to a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Beryl lumbered ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida at 12:10 am this Memorial Day as an intensifying tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Beryl is only the second named storm to hit on a Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. (the three-day weekend was established in 1971.) The other was Subtropical Storm Alpha of 1972, which followed a path almost identical to Beryl's and made landfall as a 60 mph subtropical storm. Beryl's 70 mph winds at landfall make it the strongest landfalling May tropical cyclone since the May 29, 1908 hurricane, which had 75 mph winds when it brought tropical storm-force winds to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.
Damage from Beryl has been mostly minor, with reports of street flooding, trees down, one house with a roof torn off, and power outages to 25,000 people in the Jacksonville, Florida area. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and lifeguards performed dozens of rescues along the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend due to rip currents generated by Beryl's rough surf. A tornado warning was issued near 10:30 am EDT this morning for the region near the coast to the east of Jacksonville, and Beryl's spiral bands could produce rotating thunderstorms that will trigger more tornado warnings today. A few of the top winds generated by Beryl over the past day:
Mayport, Florida: 47 mph, gusting to 62 mph (11:10 pm Sunday night)
Buck Island, St. Johns River: wind gust of 73 mph (10:35 pm Sunday night)
Huguenot Park: 54 mph, gusting to 63 mph
Jacksonville Naval Air Station: 37 mph, gusting to 48 mph
Brunswick, GA: 31 mph, gusting to 45 mph
Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine: 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph
Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl has weakened to a tropical depression, but will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it slowly treks through northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina Monday and Tuesday. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts as of Monday morning were generally 1 - 4 inches in Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, with a few regions of 4+ inches. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to exceptional drought. The 4 - 8 inches of rain expected from Beryl will provide significant drought relief in Florida and Georgia, which are suffering rainfall deficits of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 3.) When Beryl pops off the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Wednesday, the storm will probably be moving fast enough that it won't have time to generate enough rain to cause serious flooding problems in those states.
Figure 3. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. Image credit: NOAA.
July-like heat wave continues over much of the U.S.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Sunday. The heat was most notable in Indiana, where both South Bend (97°F) and Fort Wayne (96°F) set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. Rockford, Illinois (99°) and Chicago (97°) both had their hottest temperature on record so early in the year. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. A compensating sharp dip in the jet stream allowed three airports in the Western U.S. to set daily coldest temperature records on Saturday. Numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, where temperatures 15 - 20°F above average are expected.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Accumulated Cyclone Energy:
Alberto - 1.375
Beryl - 0.8625
Total: 2.24
the nogaps also wants the next trough to almost be a cutoff low on the gulf coast.
Has plenty of gaps:
Likely subsidence from Beryl.
You would hink beryl would be up on bert... guess not
Objective analysis reveals there is no cap present across the state of Florida.
beryl was subtropical most of her life so far, when they are subtropical they do not add to the ACE
Mother Nature is from South Florida and has some disdain for the bay area.
Subtropical cyclones do not contribute to ACE so Beryl didn't begin to earn any until yesterday afternoon.
OF course the Atl and GOM enhance thuderstorms that are coming in. Because of its tropical nature,it will try to feed of of any moisture and energy from water it can get. Its interesting to see how the southern side which is pulling energy out of the GOM is so much stronger. Daytime heating should help too
You can see how thestorm is probably being helped by the rocket fuel in place for the GOM
as a side note, it is holding its own over the land and if it can stay semi together it will be poised to restrengthen over the gulf stream.
ooohhhh that explains it. thanks
That is a scary amount of energy in the eastern gulf, if the cap breaks and some convergence gets going, there will be explosive thunderstorm growth.
It will prolly only sustain itself using the gom and the atl i wouldnt expect strengthening
That would have been Erin in 2007, strengthened over Oklahoma.
Texas is not particularly mountainous, only the western side of texas, I am good at geography because I go on google earth alot. ;) trust me.
Yeah but that was a Mokiki El Nino. This one appears likely to be an East-Based Nino.
Good for them, should track across S GA in the coming days.
Yes i am aware of this, it is just such an interesting phenomenon when tropical cyclones strengthen over land! I know they have done so in western Africa as well, several times! very cool imo
HA, the everglades must be one of the most favorable inland locations for a tropical cyclone, that and maybe the great lakes, I know there has been at least 1 storm there with an eye like feature resembling a TC.
I'm not so sure.
Notice how similar the SSTs during the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2009 were.
The 2004 season had the SST's characteristic of an El Nino. There was something more that made it a bad year.
I have no facts to support this, but I think it was because the Southern Pacific under the El Nino was cool, vs in 2009 it was warm. Think of the Bay of Guinea.
2012.
2009.
The exact opposite than in 2009, which would promote a more active hurricane season, and a more active Cape Verde season. However, shear from the developing El Nino will tend to cause strong tropical waves to hold off on develop until perhaps 50W. Think of what happened to Irene, we could be having development situations similar to that this year.
So far this year,the Gulf of Guinea is not as cold as last year. I know that our friend Levi has talked a lot about this Guinea factor and maybe when he can,he can elaborate on how he sees that area and how it affects tropical activity.
Erin traveled over some fairly rough terrain on it's way to OK.
Yeah, rainfall totals are adding up REALLY fast in the big bend area southeast of Florida right now
Large dust storm in the Eastern Atlantic at the current time, though:
this years ITCZ is more complex for this time of the year notice the tropical waves that are more common in july periods but most importantly its location u see when u r interested in an active season u would like to see the itcz lower to allow storms to come up slower and track through the Caribbean
For instance:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
...BERYL A RAINMAKER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION OF
BERYL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY...
PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.
STORM SURGE...TOTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT
IS MOVING OVER LAND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT
MUCH...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 48 HOURS. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BERYL WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN 96 HOURS AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
325 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 30.8N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 32.1N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 37.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 38.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
EMCWF 12z +96
CMC 12z +96
In addition the WRF model is predicting a possible tropical disturbance in 72 hours, in the GOH. I have provided an image from the mexico meteorological service so you can see what I am looking at.
WRF 12z +72
What do you guys think of these?
"A third of a billion dollars here, a third of a billion dollars there... And then the next thing you know, you're talking about real money"
without it there would be none
lesser Antilles radar image for when the season ramps up
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