Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH
Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti SpÃritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20Â in (510Â mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.
Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.
July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Reader Comments
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You should be able to get some rain with that rain and coming in.
As noted there is some model support
WRF
NOGAPS
CMC
Even if you discount the CMC the WRF is a very good model
true
NOGAPS is the least reliable global model.
Until the ECMWF and GFS spin it up, I won't pay much attention to it.
Current low level convergence:
Current upper leverl divergence:
Current wind shear:
"The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis–the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS"
but I also found him stating the NHC dosent consider the Nogaps a reliable model anymore but he never said if he agrees or not..
I believe all the models have failed many times in their predictions as to why they should only be used as guidance only
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUCTHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN COORDINATION WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK.
MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.
SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.
CMC is the least reliable but to your point yes the NOGAPS is not that reliable however you said there is NO model support which is factually incorrect.
System in the Caribbean has more energy than when Beryl was an invest in that area.
Healthy, considering.
Regardless, these models you guys are citing show one to two closed isobars...thats really not impressive considering most of those models are notoriously trigger happy.
Baby please hear me hold together.
How are you doing Grothar...is it because of the low terrain why Beryl didn't die off over land?
It looks like this one really will, that line is strong and is progressing southeast much faster than the last so I don't think it will stall to the north of Tampa Bay like the last one, granted we probably won't get 30 to 4 inches like our neighbors to the north, but if it holds a couple inches is certainly possible.
very true plus shear should start to lower by 48 hours
(notice the Dark blue and purples(lower shear) are comimng back while in 24 houes you would see the light blues and even green-blue(high shear)
Let's hope so woman! Bring it on
It still has it's circulation intact but hanging on to tropical depression status. It starts to head off northeast into the Atlantic. It could restrengthen as it cross over the gulf stream to tropical storm status before affecting the Carolinas by Wednesday night.
IT has caused major flooding including isolated reports of 20 inches of rain.
Here we go again...
#2 GFS have just gotten upgraded and I am not too sure on how well the new GFS is taking it
I don't know, those thunderstorms cells are starting to look weaker frame by frame. I don't think it's going to happen.
This would suggest some sort a circulation developing in the GOH.
It is probably also due to its proximity to the Okefenokee Swamp, which means there may be some moisture for Beryl to still maintain itself, that's just my guess.
die
Its in its early stages, there is no real vorticity to work with for now. These models can be off and on with systems so just keep an eye out on it.
true, very true
no it just you that all
Seeing some model support but conditions aren't favorable in the short term. however, things will change later on this week. Monitor it as the week progresses.
Thanks for your input!
Seriously, what the heck is wrong with this area, it doesn't make sense...
I'm starting to wonder if there's an actual meteorological reason why this keeps on happen vs. a huge coincidence.
Howdy neighbor, from Houston myself.
You picked a good time to ask that question as long as you have time to watch it play out. There are a few on here that see signs that they think are favorable for slow development ...and there are others that think it will not develop. There is a lot of back and forth with many charts being displayed that are being used to support or deny development.
I'm finding it a good learning opprotunity as I'm a novice at all of this and find myself just listening (watching) and attempting to learn and understand.
I only hope that all making their points keep their responses to each other respectful. Makes it more enjoyable to learn.
You must have upset the weather gods. It's the only logical explanation.
Have you considered the 'shower curtain' factor ?
I'm pretty sure there isn't one, I've seen way too many lines this come through in this type of atmosphere and they normally always hold together.
I still think this should make it in, it has that feed of convection off to the west as well even if the initial cells can't hold.
European, 96 hours. No closed isobars.
GFS, 96 hours. No closed isobars.
NOGAPS, 96 hours. One closed isobar.
This isn't model support. It's just not. If it develops, I'll happily eat my words, but when you have no model support, I just can't see development happening.
That's for Miami and they've been getting loads of shields.
Tampa's shields really need to notch it down a bit.
24 hours ago
now it has grown some through out the past 24 hours now more is there however not under the convection I say it is growing give it some time and let it grow it will go under the convection soon
now as of 15Z
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