Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would love to see somehing like

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

As someone already looking at blue tarp sky-lights from last night... I do enjoy a good storm, but I really don't want Chris to form over me. Here in OKC, city functions are being cancelled. If the forecasts hold for this evening, I'll post pictures tomorrow.

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Tomorrow morning, the newest US Drought Monitor analysis comes out and it will be very interesting to see just how much drought relief Tropical Storm Beryl brought to the Southeast US. Based upon comparing the rainfall estimates from Beryl to the calculated rainfall deficits, it would appear that Beryl may have eliminated the drought conditions in Northern Florida and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

I suspect Miami and most of east south Florida are out of their drought, they have had copious amounts of rain down there the last few weeks and possibly more coming This weekend..this is a good thing for them

Quoting LargoFl:
I suspect Miami and most of east south Florida are out of their drought, they have had copious amounts of rain down there the last few weeks and possibly more coming This weekend..this is a good thing for them

Drought conditions have been gone for South Florida, especially eastern sections, for about a month or more now.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

FLZ041-044-302045-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
348 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

AT 346 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 19 MILES WEST OF LAKE
GEORGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2940 8142 2927 8141 2926 8134 2887 8141
2898 8166 2905 8166 2905 8164 2928 8165
2932 8168 2933 8168 2934 8166 2938 8145
2940 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 272DEG 18KT 2933 8189

$$


WEITLICH

Quoting weatherbro:
Models are completely eliminating rain chances for Florida after Sunday as they have been very adamant for the past three days on this anomalous trough bringing a strong(for this time of year) late season cold front right on through even south Florida by early next week. It looks to me the dry season will pay us one last visit.

Actually, NWS in Ruskin notes that the models recently are completely backing off on the deep upper ridging over Florida, and thus scattered sea breeze storms may be added back to the forecast if future model runs continue that way.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
West Pacific:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND A 300315Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATED ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A WEAK,
BROAD CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE LLCC ARE
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SHARPEST REGION OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Hey MA...do you think we'll see a strong typhoon out of this?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well...it was nice knowing you, Beryl.

30/1745 UTC 33.9N 77.1W EXTRATROPICAL BERYL -- Atlantic

it could of survived a little longer :(

Quoting LargoFl:

some parts of texas have 115 heat index's whew

Quoting LargoFl:
I suspect Miami and most of east south Florida are out of their drought, they have had copious amounts of rain down there the last few weeks and possibly more coming This weekend..this is a good thing for them

Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.

yeah Jed, we need some here in Pinellas for sure, we need the afternoon showers to begin

Quoting Jedkins01:



Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.

It's good to know that Florida got some well needed rain from Beryl.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Looks like a weak circulation is trying to form in the GOH. Stay Tune!

Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
The area in the NW Caribbean is being enhanced by an ULL. Link

Wow! the Caribbean is really moist.

Quoting LargoFl:
some parts of texas have 115 heat index's whew

96 in Houston with a heat index of 105... whew is right!

Quoting Pirate999:


96 in Houston with a heat index of 105... whew is right!

even for texas, for may this is too warm isnt it? i guess in summer you do get this but in May?

Quoting Hurricanes305:

Wow! the Caribbean is really moist.

local mets are watching it for this weekend GT..

Quoting Jedkins01:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.

LOL your sure right jed we need to lower the shields and let some of this in here lol.

The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.

Quoting LargoFl:
yeah Jed, we need some here in Pinellas for sure, we need the afternoon showers to begin

Yeah we probably had a grand whopping inch accumulated from a few short lived down pours over the past few days as an average for Pinellas, definitely nothing special when you have a 8 to 10 inch deficit.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the upward phase of the MJO.

But can someone make all that dry air go away please?

Quoting LargoFl:
even for texas, for may this is too warm isnt it? i guess in summer you do get this but in May?

It can occasionally, June is Friday anyway

Quoting LargoFl:
LOL your sure right jed we need to lower the shields and let some of this in here lol.

It's very strange, I noticed tropical cyclones that impact Florida in similar fashion as Baryl tend to be nothing but teasers for this area and often soakers for eastern and northern Florida, one recent example was T.S. Fay. I know there have been others but I can't think of it now.


It seems that tropical cyclones that come up through the gulf but pass to the west of Tampa tend to bring a lot of rain into the area, and it also seems that if they cut across the state from the Atlantic back into the gulf we also get a lot of rain. We received anywhere from 7 to 14 inches for both hurricane Frances and Jeanne.

I remember that neither hurricane produced more than an inch around here til they actually completely crossed the state into the gulf, then we get slammed.


However, an incoming cold front or trough interacting with Caribbean moisture is typically a good even rainfall wise for the Tampa Bay area, hopefully it actually materializes.

My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

I got to play with AWIPS for a few minuts, but they wouldnt let me near WARN-GEN :)

They are still concerned about the potential for severe weather thursday night and friday across N GA but wouldnt say much more.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.

I'm leaning towards Fri. Night into Sat. Morning for our best chance of rain. One thing that would be good is the front stalls offshore and doesn't actually clear the area.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

Awesome, nice club to have. Thanks for sharing

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist ...

as it's water!

Sorry, resistance was futile.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.

Hey there thats the way its been in z-hills since last october. Yesterday was the most rain i've had 1.80 since last october.So yes at some point it will rain in Tampa.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

MAZ020>024-RIZ006>008-312030-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
424 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT FOR FOG ALONG THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR FOG ALONG THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Bye bye Beryl :(

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...BERYL IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 76.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Quoting Pirate999:


96 in Houston with a heat index of 105... whew is right!

Things are about normal for this time of year at Hobby, actually:


IAH has some more aberrant temperatures though:



I would place this on how IAH is further north and experiences somewhat less humidity thus its temperature is not as readily moderated by the Gulf moisture we get around here.

Renegade Cartel cells

RIP Beryl.

Anyways, the 12z ECMWF continues to hint that a trough will be draped over the SE United States that 'could' cause some mischief. It begins to develop a low but sends it into the coast before anything really happens with it.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.

It's been a long time since I've seen it like that. The return of moisture and instability this year is why I thought the Hurricane/Major numbers were low in early forecasts. But, I see most have upped their numbers this go round.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.

Most of the moisture is in the caribbean we could see Chris sooner than later. By the way This pattern looks just like 2004.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

I got to play with AWIPS for a few minuts, but they wouldnt let me near WARN-GEN :)

They are still concerned about the potential for severe weather thursday night and friday across N GA but wouldnt say much more.

Mr. Lynn also said they do have a few forecasters who, like me, wish for severe weather to come as close to their area as possible.

And the 12Z ECMWF trended stronger and more southerly with the trough, which makes me happy.
Hopefully it can do it again next run.

NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.

Quoting Hurricanes305:


Most of the moisture is in the caribbean we could see Chris sooner than later. By the way This pattern looks just like 2004.

This could be a dangerous set up for the Caribbean and the US...BBL

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's been a long time since I've seen it like that. The return of moisture and instability this year is why I thought the Hurricane/Major numbers were low in early forecasts. But, I see most have upped their numbers this go round.

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.

Shear has been running below Climo in the ATL as well.

Quoting nigel20:

This could be a dangerous set up for the Caribbean and the US...BBL

With ridge setup storms would be forced into central Gulf and go anywhere from there

Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.

Someone might get their wish (?)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.

I thought it was 3 canes and 1 major at one time from CSU anyway

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I thought it was 3 canes and 1 major at one time from CSU anyway

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.

I have a feeling that most of the tropical development will develop in the carribean with the Atlantic High force tropical systems into the caribb. and aim them at the US. But that just a theory.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:

Year of the Gulf?

The final track for TS Beryl.