Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

Share this Blog
33
+

The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 278 - 228

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

I got to play with AWIPS for a few minuts, but they wouldnt let me near WARN-GEN :)

They are still concerned about the potential for severe weather thursday night and friday across N GA but wouldnt say much more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL your sure right jed we need to lower the shields and let some of this in here lol.



It's very strange, I noticed tropical cyclones that impact Florida in similar fashion as Baryl tend to be nothing but teasers for this area and often soakers for eastern and northern Florida, one recent example was T.S. Fay. I know there have been others but I can't think of it now.


It seems that tropical cyclones that come up through the gulf but pass to the west of Tampa tend to bring a lot of rain into the area, and it also seems that if they cut across the state from the Atlantic back into the gulf we also get a lot of rain. We received anywhere from 7 to 14 inches for both hurricane Frances and Jeanne.

I remember that neither hurricane produced more than an inch around here til they actually completely crossed the state into the gulf, then we get slammed.


However, an incoming cold front or trough interacting with Caribbean moisture is typically a good even rainfall wise for the Tampa Bay area, hopefully it actually materializes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
even for texas, for may this is too warm isnt it? i guess in summer you do get this but in May?


It can occasionally, June is Friday anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
275. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the upward phase of the MJO.



But can someone make all that dry air go away please?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah Jed, we need some here in Pinellas for sure, we need the afternoon showers to begin



Yeah we probably had a grand whopping inch accumulated from a few short lived down pours over the past few days as an average for Pinellas, definitely nothing special when you have a 8 to 10 inch deficit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting LargoFl:
some parts of texas have 115 heat index's whew


96 in Houston with a heat index of 105... whew is right!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The area in the NW Caribbean is being enhanced by an ULL. Link

Wow! the Caribbean is really moist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like a weak circulation is trying to form in the GOH. Stay Tune!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.

It's good to know that Florida got some well needed rain from Beryl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
I suspect Miami and most of east south Florida are out of their drought, they have had copious amounts of rain down there the last few weeks and possibly more coming This weekend..this is a good thing for them



Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well...it was nice knowing you, Beryl.

30/1745 UTC 33.9N 77.1W EXTRATROPICAL BERYL -- Atlantic



it could of survived a little longer :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
West Pacific:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND A 300315Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATED ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A WEAK,
BROAD CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE LLCC ARE
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SHARPEST REGION OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.



Hey MA...do you think we'll see a strong typhoon out of this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherbro:
Models are completely eliminating rain chances for Florida after Sunday as they have been very adamant for the past three days on this anomalous trough bringing a strong(for this time of year) late season cold front right on through even south Florida by early next week. It looks to me the dry season will pay us one last visit.



Actually, NWS in Ruskin notes that the models recently are completely backing off on the deep upper ridging over Florida, and thus scattered sea breeze storms may be added back to the forecast if future model runs continue that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
I suspect Miami and most of east south Florida are out of their drought, they have had copious amounts of rain down there the last few weeks and possibly more coming This weekend..this is a good thing for them


Drought conditions have been gone for South Florida, especially eastern sections, for about a month or more now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would love to see somehing like

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...



As someone already looking at blue tarp sky-lights from last night... I do enjoy a good storm, but I really don't want Chris to form over me. Here in OKC, city functions are being cancelled. If the forecasts hold for this evening, I'll post pictures tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tomorrow morning, the newest US Drought Monitor analysis comes out and it will be very interesting to see just how much drought relief Tropical Storm Beryl brought to the Southeast US. Based upon comparing the rainfall estimates from Beryl to the calculated rainfall deficits, it would appear that Beryl may have eliminated the drought conditions in Northern Florida and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Statement as of 12:58 PM EDT on May 30, 2012


... Preliminary storm survey scheduled for 200 PM for the area near
Peletier in Carteret County North Carolina...

The National Weather Service office in Newport/Morehead City NC will
conduct a storm survey at 200 PM for the area near Peletier in
Carteret County North Carolina. The survey is in relation to the
potential tornado that moved through the area earlier today.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be
completed and transmitted via a public information statement by 500 PM.

It will also be available on our website... which can be found at
weather.Gov/mhx.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting weatherh98:
That would be hilariously impossible hahaha


Does anyone know if you can report an wumail? I got a nasty gram from DegreedMet2012 saying something I can't repeat saying keep my name off the blog until I return.

I don't know what it means or anything but is this reportable?


I deleted it and am now in-route to his location as I type, closing in on him now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would love to see somehing like

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


Actually when they say THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


And I just got another message from him, but a different handle. Beware he may return again.

Just hit ! and ignore :).


I got one also look at my last comment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would love to see somehing like

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
That would be hilariously impossible hahaha


Does anyone know if you can report an wumail? I got a nasty gram from DegreedMet2012 saying something I can't repeat saying keep my name off the blog until I return.

I don't know what it means or anything but is this reportable?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


He's made more than 4 returns in a few days


And I just got another message from him, but a different handle. Beware he may return again.

Just hit ! and ignore :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 02 2012 - 12Z WED JUN 06 2012

WEATHER-WISE...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE COMMA HEAD OF THE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER ITS BASE LEADING TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD NORTH OF FLORIDA. HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F
EACH DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...RIDING EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/MID AND DEEP
SOUTH...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE PER THE LATEST DAY 4-8
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER /SPC/ AT 0900 UTC. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST...LEADING TO COOLING MID-NEXT WEEK.
LATE SEASON RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST
FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER FOUR WEEKS...THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED DO NOT FAVOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT/EXISTENCE DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IN EITHER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BASINS. HOWEVER...THE ROUNDY FORECAST PROBABILITY OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEB PAGE FROM SUNY-ALBANY INDICATES ACTIVITY
COULD RESTART ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. STAY TUNED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Prolly

I would love to see somehing like

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I love watching the weather on the Cape... It really is crazy... I remember a couple years ago a Nor'easter came up the coast and was supposed to go completely out to sea but the outer edge of its snow shield got stuck on the Cape and some places got over a foot of snow out there when the forecast called for a chance of flurries!


EXACTLY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Maybe they'll name it Chris.


Prolly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, it could go Eastward and miss us, but I don't know. There's a Northward element and it could linger as I said earlier.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
HRRR model is predicting a land hurricane across Oklahoma tonight.


Link

Maybe they'll name it Chris.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Severe fog sounds depressing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's been cloudy here almost all day.At least the temps have cooled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting klaatuborada:


No, we're not going. Beryl, which is supposed to go out to sea, is not. Well it is, but it isn't. I live on Cape Cod. Cape Cod has it's own little micro-climate. They can NEVER call the weather here, unless it's already happening. Beryl will hug the coast a bit, and be a little bit more Westward before rolling out into the Atlantic. Therefore the WeatherUnderground forecast of 20% chance of showers tonight will not come true.

It will be the NOAA forecast: Tonight: Showers, mainly before midnight. Areas of fog between 10pm and 11pm, then Areas of fog after 2am. Low around 58. West wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Severe fog for the next 3 to 4 days.

I love watching the weather on the Cape... It really is crazy... I remember a couple years ago a Nor'easter came up the coast and was supposed to go completely out to sea but the outer edge of its snow shield got stuck on the Cape and some places got over a foot of snow out there when the forecast called for a chance of flurries!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969

Viewing: 278 - 228

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
43 °F
Overcast