Wilma drenches New England
Wilma continues racing northeast at 55 mph towards Canada, and is still maintaining Category 2 winds of 100 mph. Wind shear of 50 knots is beginning to take its toll, though, and the top potion of the storm is being ripped away from the surface portion, resulting in steady weakening. By tonight, Wilma will pass north of the warm Gulf Stream waters into waters of just 20 C, resulting in rapid weakening to a tropical storm and then to a regular extratropical cyclone. The forward speed of 55 mph means that the winds on the east side of the storm are blowing at 100 mph, and the winds on the west side just 45 mph--quite an asymmetry!
Wilma and New England
Today and tonight, Wilma will dramatically affect New England's weather. A separate powerful Nor'easter storm is developing next to the coast of New England, and moisture feeding back from Wilma into the Nor'easter will drench much of Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and surrounding areas with 2 - 4 inches of rain. In the northern portions of Maine and New Hampshire, the precipitation will come as snow, and reach 6 - 8 inches depth. Snowfall amounts in the Adirondacks will exceed 12 inches, and heavy snow of six inches has already been reported in the Laurel Highlands east of Pittsburgh.
Winds from the combined Nor'easter/Wilma storm will reach sustained levels of 40 - 50 mph over the waters near Cape Cod, and bring wind gusts of 50 mph to New York City, Providence, and Boston. A storm surge of 3.5 feet with 26 foot waves is expected to cause moderate flooding along the coast of southeast Massachusetts, similar to what was experienced with the blizzard of December 2003. Wilma and the Nor'easter will merge on Wednesday, bringing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding. New England residents, take heart: the
second Nor'easter the computer models were predicting for Sunday now appears to be a non-threat. Yes, the same computer models that have trouble with long range hurricane forecasts also do poorly on winter storms sometimes!
Were the winds on Wilma's backside stronger?
I heard numerous reporters and eyewitnesses say that that after Wilma's eye passed, the winds on the back side were much stronger. A check of the wind history at Fort Lauderdale shows that this was the case there. Sustained winds peaked at 66 mph before the eye's passage, and were 69 mph after. However, most other wind traces I have examined show the opposite trend. For example, West Palm Beach reported peak sustatined winds of 82 mph before eye passage, and 76 mph after. In general, this is what we would expect, since the storm weakened as it passed over Florida. However, there were enough asymmetries caused by friction and interaction with land that some intense thunderstorms wrapped around to the back side of Wilma causing stronger winds there for some areas. In many cases, the perception that stronger winds occurred on the backside was incorrect. After a long lull, the sudden onset of hurricane force winds makes the winds seem stronger, compared to the slow build up of winds that occurs when the storm is first approaching.
Are we done with hurricane season yet?
No. Hurricane season runs through the end of November. On average, we get one tropical storm every other year between now and the end of the year. Given that this is no ordinary year, I think we can expect at least one more tropical storm. However, I do think that the hurricane season for the United States is over. An strong cold front behind Wilma has spread unseasonably cool air across the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas, Cuba, and into the northwest Caribbean. This cool air will significantly chill the ocean waters surrounding the U.S., making it difficult for a tropical storm to form or maintain its strength near the U.S.
Tropical disturbance north of Panama
While hurricane season may be over for the U.S., it is definitely not over for the Caribbean. A tropical disturbance in the extreme south central Caribbean north of Panama bears watching this week. Currently, the cloud pattern is disorganized, and wind shear values of 20 knots are too high to allow development. However, wind shear values are expected to drop the next few days, possibly allowing some tropical development to occur later in the week. Most of the global forecast models predict that a tropical depression will form in this region later this week. Any development in this region would be a threat to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, northeast Honduras, and the islands to their north.
Jeff Masters
This Roof came off a several businesses near our house in Palm Beach Gardens.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE WILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Wilma is one scary storm, shes STILL a two?!
... as for Beta-to-be, bring out the crystals and tinfoil hats and shades
To give you an example of SW FLorida resiliancy and humor: I saw a sign today in someone's destroyed yard. It said, "Free firewood. Bring chainsaw." Good stuff!
Someone asked why the storm intensified when it was forecast as a Cat 1, maybe 2 at landfall. During the storm, as everyone began to realize that the back eyewall was pounding us much harder than the front had, local weathermen put their heads together and began postulating that the cold front was actually feeding Wilma instead of weakening her - soemething about the storm drawing energy from the cold air. They actually went into much greater detail about the dynamics of the situation, but I can't recall exactly what was said. (I'm a heartfelt but rather green weather newbie, and I was sort of preoccupied with a major hurricane that was trying to have my house and family for dinner. Actually, most of what I remember from last night involves stress eating massive quantities of Funions, deep and sincere praying to God for safety, and adrenaline-enhanced listening to every creak and groan of a home under hurricane assault. But I digress....)
I'm really anxious to hear from GoldenGate and nightbloomingjasmine, as well as other SW Floridians.
Regarding storm names...it would really be something if we got to delta. Remember, the Greek alphabet goes alpha, beta, gamma, delta - or a, b, g, d. Delta would really be something!
Laurentian fan.
Hurricane force wind warning continued.
Easterly gales 40 to 50 knots increasing to southeast gales 50 to
65 late this evening then veering to southwest gales 50 to 65
overnight.
http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm
a href="http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm"
I hope I did the link correctly!
a href="http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm"
Ever wonder where polar lows get their energy? Certainly not warm water :) Storms can also feed off of differences in temperature, which is the normal source of energy for extratropical systems. Essentially, Wilma went subtropical for a while before reaching the Atlantic.
I can't imaging the Irish Tourism Board being particularly pleased with the prospects of fall tropical storms lashing the Emerald Isle on a routine basis.
the next ten years, at least, may bring us much more rare, or never seen weather phenomenon..... exciting to follow, but potentially costly and deadly.
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