Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My favorite is "Never try and teach a pig how to fly." "It's a waste of time and it annoys the Pig."
Message Date: May 30 2012 22:15:10
To All Users: UPDATE --- The KGWX Radar power supply parts are on order so will
be down until at least Friday and perhaps as late as Monday. EC
come to the weather chat
Who is the judge of whether a blogger is for real? You? Me? Admin? Just use ignore
You can't see a cycle on that either, as the resolution of that graph - and the associated uncertainty bars - are not conducive to even eyeballing cycles. The fact that you think a scientist should do so speaks volumes.
If you ever decide to educate yourself in areas of climate science and would like some suggestions, I'm sure many (including myself) would be glad to help.
Coming at ya... severe tstm hit here 2:05, had hail to 3/4" for about 3 minutes, over inch rain in 20 min, wind gust peak on my 11' height anemometer (lower than surrounding roofs) hit 36.5 mph so imagine adjusting for 10 meter / 33' standard might be near 55-60 mph range... leaves / limbs down all over... And no, no warning from KLIX on this one for Bayou Cane / Terrebonne before hit...
Heads up, bud...
Roger that Doc..Im a watching that Line coming up.
Thanx for the heads up, stay safe.
Link
BRING IT ON
BAD position to have the high in for hurricane season.
Should you believe it to only be a myth then all you need to do is to disprove the AGWT. When you are able to do this then you will certainly win a Nobel Peace Prize for disproving the Laws of Physics, Chemistry and everything else mankind has learned through Science. Unless you are able to do this, then I suggest that perhaps you are believing in a myth ( that the AGWT is hoax to strip mankind of all of its independence, wealth and resources ) that is not based on knowledge that has been verified through testing and observations.
Confirm for us that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas.
Confirm for us that mankind's activities do no emit tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Confirm for us that mankind's activities do not destroy sizable amounts of Earth's natural carbon sinks.
When it comes down to tropical weather discussions, confirm for us that global climate does not impact tropical weather and that tropical weather can be fulled understood only as an entity upon itself.
Ilive on the northshore dont look to good for me either
TONE
054
WUUS54 KLIX 311950
SVRLIX
LAC063-105-312015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0109.120531T1950Z-120531T2015Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT
* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMMOND...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROBERT AND PONCHATOULA
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3033 9029 3032 9044 3034 9048 3031 9053
3028 9072 3046 9074 3055 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 264DEG 20KT 3038 9062
I'm really confused. Submerged when? Utah is completely underwater but Salt Lake City is at 4200ft of elevation.
In the break now...
Safe wishes back atcha!
Its going around the lake
I hope you aren't baking a cake. I'm not sure, but I think it could be a little overdone.
So were using Eastern time on this and not GMT?
324
WFUS54 KLIX 311955
TORLIX
LAC063-091-105-312030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0040.120531T1955Z-120531T2030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
255 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AMITE...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTPELIER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMITE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INDEPENDENCE AND ROSELAND
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3083 9043 3054 9038 3048 9067 3063 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 238DEG 15KT 3060 9063
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
3:00 AM JST June 1 2012
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.7N 125.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
I hope it moves.
Didnt know dis either till you mentioned it jus now.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Statement as of 3:03 PM CDT on May 31, 2012
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330 remains in effect until 900 PM CDT
for the following locations
La
. Louisiana parishes included are
Jefferson Lafourche Orleans
Plaquemines St. Bernard St. Charles
St. John The Baptist St. Tammany Tangipahoa
Washington
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...WW 328...WW 329...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND SRN LA. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 8 KM IS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...WEISS
Is this not in itself anthropogenic warming?
069
WUUS54 KLIX 312006
SVRLIX
MSC147-312030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0110.120531T2006Z-120531T2030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF SALEM...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TYLERTOWN
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3133 9007 3134 9004 3118 9002 3117 9000
3114 9000 3114 8994 3112 8993 3111 9026
3130 9026 3134 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 258DEG 22KT 3122 9020
PWAT's will increase to between 2.0 and 2.3 inches, this combined with the favorable quadrant of a jet streak for widespread lift and increasing instability as well as the approaching cold front are all great signs for significant rainfall and thunderstorms for Central and South Florida, especially the coastal areas.
T.I.A.
A Gigatonne is 2.2trillion pounds of water. A gallon would contain ~8.33 pounds of water.
A tonne is mass-equivalent to 1cu.metre or 1000litres of water. There are ~0.264172gallons per litre.
So a tonne of water would be ~264gallons, and a Gigatonne would be ~264billion gallons
That 250Gigatonnes is derived from an accelerating trend averaged over 7years, starting with a ~75Gigatonne loss between 2003 and 2004.
Greenland's 2010to2011 ice loss was ~425Gigatonnes.
A Gigatonne of glacial ice contains a cubic kilometre of water.
Why are you apologizing? did you break it? hahaha
I'll believe it when I see it. I don't care if they're forecasting 100% chance of rain even.
The urban heat island effect and position of land-based thermometers has been looked into time and time again, and been shown to cause only a marginal affect on temperatures. In fact, analysis by NOAA shows that thermometer ranked as "poor" in independent analysis by skeptics were shown to bias results colder rather than warmer.
Even if the urban heat island effect were having a major influence on the warming trend, it is caused by human activities, and thus would be an anthropogenic forcing.
No I didn't, but we had AC issues over the long weekend which stressed the equipment, so in turn, one of the power supplies failed.
That why we need to just build some gigantic mirrors, put them in the Sahara, then BOOM. problem solves we are all millionaires.
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