Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

Posted by: Angela Fritz, 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

+37

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.

Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.

Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Waves (PlashIslandResident)

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.

Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)

Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL

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2201. weatherbro 1:29 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze: It wont make landfall in till friday night... That just defies the laws of physics. Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155

2202. RickWPB 1:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Patrap: That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM. Pat's post showing the radar of N Fl with a spinning storm east of Jacksonville, reminds me of what the GFS was forecasting days ago. So much for being the 'outlier'. sent from iPad Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

2203. dogsgomoo 2:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Debbie, thanks a bunch. I go for a nice long weekend of camping/kayaking on GA coast only to cut it short because of your wandering ways. Late sunday we saw impressive clouds streaming in from S and then had tent deforming wind gusts over the top of a steady sea breaze and light rain. Get a bar on the phone to check weather only to find Debbie shifted tracks and she's no longer interested in visiting Louisiana. Oh and she's bulked up a bit to so what we're seeing looks suspiciously like a far rain band and not just an isolated rain shower.. Plus more behind it. Consensus was reached in 10 minutes, time to pack up and head back to mainland. If she's so unpredictable that he pros are surprised; we don't want any of our own during the night high tide or morning paddle back. Sit on tops loaded with gear, novice and tired paddlers and potentially choppy/white cap surf plus rain would not be a good mix. I still feel like we overreacted but i know it was a sensible choice. Rader shows we would have been soaked for most of the night. Surf reports show the paddle back would have been a decent workout. Point being, keep an eye on the weather during storm season, no matter where you are on the coast. Frankly, it's better to be safe and feel silly ;) than ending up as one of "those" tourists that needs to be rescued because they ignored all warning signs till they had nochoice left. Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 286

2204. StormHunter89 4:03 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting morrisfl: Any idea what caused the feeder bands to push inland to the East last night and today? It sure has given the coast here near Tampa Bay a bit of a break... Shear. There arent any new bands because of dry air, but it looks like she's starting something on her south side. That will rotate into the panhandle eventually. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

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