Violent thunderstorms kill 3 in North Carolina; extreme heat continues in Southeast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:48 AM GMT on July 02, 2012

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Violent severe thunderstorms swept through Eastern North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening, killing three people--one in a collapsed building, and two due to a falling tree. The deadly thunderstorms were fueled by the extreme heat affecting the Southeast, coupled with unusually high levels of moisture. The extraordinary heat and moisture caused high levels of atmospheric instability rarely seen. For those of you familiar with atmospheric stability indicies, the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina at 2 pm EDT Sunday was 5000 - 6000, with a lifted index of -14. The Morehead City NWS office analyzed CAPE levels in excess of 7000 in the region, which is a truly rare occurrence. Fortunately, there was very little wind shear Sunday, so the upper-level winds were not able to induce the kind of twisting force needed to generate tornadoes. Sunday's powerful storms brought more power outages and damage to a region still suffering the impacts of Friday's rare derecho event, which killed 14 people and left power outages that still affect at least 2 million people. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the storm initially knocked out power to 2.5 million people in Virginia, the largest non-hurricane related power outage in state history. A derecho is a fast-moving, long-lived, violent thunderstorm complex that usually develops along the northern edge of a very hot air mass, in conjunction with an active jet stream. Friday's derecho was one of the largest and most destructive in U.S. history, and compares to the May 8, 2009 derecho that swept across the nation from Kansas to Kentucky, killing six and causing $500 million in damage.


Figure 1. Radar image of Sunday's violent thunderstorms that killed three people in North Carolina.

Dangerous extreme heat continues in the Southeast
Temperatures near all-time record levels continued for much of the Southeast on Sunday. The temperature in Atlanta, GA hit 105°F, which would have been the hottest temperature in city history, had the mercury not hit 106° the day before. On Sunday, Columbia, South Carolina hit 106°, the 5th highest temperature ever recorded there. Columbia hit 109° on Friday and 108° on Saturday, the two hottest days since record keeping began in 1887.

People in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic without power must endure more extreme heat the next few days, with temperatures in the 100s and upper 90s expected over much of the region. While the temperatures are generally expected to be a few degrees cooler than what was seen Friday and Saturday, it is not the extremity of the temperatures in a heat wave that result in the highest heat stress to vulnerable people, but rather the length of time very high temperatures last. A multi-day period of exceptionally hot weather often causes high mortality. Yesterday's airmass was exceptionally humid, which greatly increases heat stress, since the body cools less efficiently in humid conditions. Aberdeen, Mississippi recorded a temperature of 104° with a dewpoint of 84° at 3 pm EDT Sunday, resulting in ridiculously high heat index of 136. Goldsboro, NC had a dewpoint of 87° at 11 am Sunday, the highest dewpoint I can recall seeing in the U.S., and something more typical of what is seen in Saudi Arabia along the shores of the Red Sea. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the highest dew point temperature in world history is probably the 95°F (35°C) recorded at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia at 3 p.m. on July 8, 2003. The dry bulb temperature stood at 108°F at the time, so theoretically the heat index was 176°F. Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) apparently once recorded a dew point of 93.2° (date unknown) according to ‘Weather Climate Extremes’ Army Corps of Engineers TEC-0099 report.

Mr. Burt has a new post called The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30 summarizing the later portion of the historic heat wave currently affecting the U.S. He comments:

What was truly astonishing was the number of all-time any month records that were broken or tied. This is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country (unlike the Southwest where June is often the month that all-time heat extremes are recorded). Eighteen of the 298 locations I follow closely (because of their long Period of Record and representation of U.S. climate) have already broken or tied their all-time heat records. The only year with more all-time heat records is 1936, when 61 cities set all-time heat records.

It is just July the 1st and the summer has just begun.


Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters

BACKYARD BBQ (BEME)
Live,,from the BWS [BathroomWindowStudio] in downtown Shenandoah! This is in one 'take'...there was some wicked strikes around,,but no rain in town!! These little cells just skirted the perimeter as usual....hopefully later today we will get some refreshing rain..It had been very humid all day and evening..lots of atmosphere for this display to cut thru...Too bad that darned power pole and trees are in the way,right?!! Maybe I'll chop it down! Started here about 2 a.m. Sunday
BACKYARD BBQ
June 29 Virginia Derecho (tony5665)
Captured this outside my house before the passing of the storm.
June 29 Virginia Derecho
100 degrees ... I'm cool (pjpix)
This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River this afternoon as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in carpentersville, IL
100 degrees ... I'm cool
Keep on Truckin' (joking1)
Trucks keep right on rollin past a wildfire in Pocatello, ID
Keep on Truckin'

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309. RTSplayer
6:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.



If the Sun was increasing statistically in any known EM frequency or particle radiation, or even some unknown exotic form of heat transfer, it would have been detected already and taken into consideration in climate models.

Any such surplus heat would be detect, for example, in solar boiler arrays, which would out perform their specifications by a significant, quantifiable margin if "unknown exotic radiation" were coming from the Sun.

"Weakly interacting" radiation or particles would be detected by the many neutrino detectors and possibly gravity experiments and cosmic ray detectors around the planet, and so extra neutrons or extra neutrinos are probably ruled out as well, although that would be admittedly a bit harder to quantify than EM radiation or charged particles.

At any rate, there would not be enough "hot" neutrons or "hot" neutrinos to explain the temperature increase. I think the required increase in neutron radiation would probably destroy the DNA of all life on Earth long before it made a significant change in global atmospheric and oceanic temperature. You'd likely need trillions and trillions of TONS of "Extra" neutrons hitting the Earth at a velocity in the millions of miles per hour in order to drive up the temperature of the atmosphere and oceans enough to measure.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
308. drg0dOwnCountry
6:36 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

have a magnetic pole reversal


'Magnetic Death Star' Fossils: Earlier Global Warming Produced A Whole New Form Of Life

An international team of scientists has discovered microscopic, magnetic fossils resembling spears and spindles, unlike anything previously seen, among sediment layers deposited during an ancient global-warming event along the Atlantic coastal plain of the United States.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
307. Walshy
6:31 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
306. MississippiWx
6:31 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure lol.


Hey, the dentist can be pretty fun if you have the right dental hygienist hovering over you. Catch my drift? If she's ugly, then I'm sorry. Just enjoy have your teeth squeaky clean. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253
305. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:30 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
304. weatherh98
6:29 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's about Taz becoming a featured blogger. You didn't hear?


seriously?

youre pulling my leg
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
303. bluheelrtx
6:29 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not let us in on it now?
They always make you sit through the freak show first.
Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 228
302. jeffs713
6:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


I was saying the difference from an earthquake tsunami and a landslide tsunami

nope, identical cause, which is the displacement of water. HOW the water is displaced can differ, but at the core, water is displaced, and it has to go somewhere. (Water doesn't compress well at all... and even if it did compress, the compression waves would still have an impact)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
301. weatherh98
6:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure lol.


clean teef
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
300. MississippiWx
6:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


kinda wondering about that


It's about Taz becoming a featured blogger. You didn't hear?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253
299. islandgirls
6:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
The Atlantic is naked. Put some clothes on, dude:



Hmmm Clothes, What's that? Oh,a few waves here, some depressions there, and Oh yes a couple of tropical storms topped with Hurricanes. Is that enough clothes for you?

Member Since: April 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
298. weatherh98
6:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:
Actually, no, beach waves die off all the time. Rogue waves are generally seen as several waves that happen to peak near the same time/place and travel together. Ocean waves are completely a function of wind and tides (mostly wind), and ocean floor topography only comes into play in water that is less than 3x the wave height (or so)

A tsunami is mostly a function of water displacement and ocean floor topography. Tsunami waves at sea have very long wavelengths, but very low amplitude. Once they get into shallower water, their wavelength shortens, but amplitude increases as part of the physics law governing the conservation of energy.


I was saying the difference from an earthquake tsunami and a landslide tsunami
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
297. VINNY04
6:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Well im signing off now. Have a good 4th everyone and stay safe.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
296. weatherh98
6:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ok, but they are not beach waves. Beach waves are caused by winds and tides. Tsunamis are caused by substantial ocean/water displacement. I'm not an oceanographer but it seems pretty elementary that they are fundamentally different phenomena.


yes! im just a kid but the science channel showed me that one haha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
295. jeffs713
6:25 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean
Actually, no, beach waves die off all the time. Rogue waves are generally seen as several waves that happen to peak near the same time/place and travel together. Ocean waves are completely a function of wind and tides (mostly wind), and ocean floor topography only comes into play in water that is less than 3x the wave height (or so)

A tsunami is mostly a function of water displacement and ocean floor topography. Tsunami waves at sea have very long wavelengths, but very low amplitude. Once they get into shallower water, their wavelength shortens, but amplitude increases as part of the physics law governing the conservation of energy.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
294. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:25 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
I think I hear the AutoBot getting ready...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
293. weatherh98
6:25 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
GRAB THE GUN!!!!!!!!!!


you take the nades, ill get the sickle.

go find the box
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
292. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:24 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:


Did you have a good time

Sure lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
291. ScottLincoln
6:24 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean


Ok, but they are not beach waves. Beach waves are caused by winds and tides. Tsunamis are caused by substantial ocean/water displacement. I'm not an oceanographer but it seems pretty elementary that they are fundamentally different phenomena.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
290. weatherh98
6:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters


kinda wondering about that
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
289. Walshy
6:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?


glaciers fall in the ocean and create a tsunami
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
288. VINNY04
6:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


(starting in Miami)
GRAB THE GUN!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
287. weatherh98
6:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)


he said it was 29.99
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
286. Tazmanian
6:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P


Did you have a good time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
285. Patrap
6:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
284. weatherh98
6:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
Zombie apocalypse?


(starting in Miami)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
283. Walshy
6:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
i hope the doc is not retiring...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
282. weatherh98
6:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?


you left out multiple super volcano eruptions at once
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
281. mobileshadow
6:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
OZ is walking around with other media people taking a look at the damage from the fires in CO. Live stream



Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183
280. jeffs713
6:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?

You forgot the zombie apocalypse, some mysterious planet that will remove earth from orbiting the sun, an incredible solar flare destroying our infrastructure (the most plausible of all of them), and the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
279. VINNY04
6:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?
Zombie apocalypse?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
278. Tropicsweatherpr
6:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
WHXX01 KMIA 021814
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC MON JUL 2 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20120702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120702 1800 120703 0600 120703 1800 120704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 99.4W 10.4N 101.4W 11.0N 103.3W 11.6N 105.2W
BAMD 9.7N 99.4W 9.8N 101.1W 9.9N 102.8W 10.0N 104.5W
BAMM 9.7N 99.4W 10.2N 101.2W 10.5N 103.0W 11.0N 104.8W
LBAR 9.7N 99.4W 10.2N 101.1W 10.8N 103.3W 11.5N 105.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120704 1800 120705 1800 120706 1800 120707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 107.2W 13.4N 110.7W 14.0N 114.4W 14.4N 118.2W
BAMD 10.2N 106.2W 10.6N 110.0W 10.8N 114.0W 10.9N 117.8W
BAMM 11.4N 106.7W 12.2N 110.5W 12.7N 114.6W 12.9N 118.8W
LBAR 12.3N 108.1W 13.9N 113.5W 14.6N 118.6W 13.0N 122.2W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 99.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 98.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 96.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14279
277. weatherh98
6:19 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That seems a little unlikely. Even if one of those such waves were to occur, the chance would be astronomically smaller than the chance of a 100ft rogue wave, of which we have very few verifiable observations. Rogue waves in it of themselves are very rare, the higher you go the more rare it gets, as it requires more and more things to line up to attain such a height.
The Draupner Wave was estimated to be a 1/200,000 wave and it was just 84ft.


What? According to what? Beach waves are predominantly caused by winds and tides. A megatsunami caused by a landslide is still a tsunami.em>


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
276. VINNY04
6:19 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Twenty minutes to go...

Grab a Fresca and get ready...
Ready for what?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
275. VINNY04
6:18 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

He needs time to make it up.
Ouch!!!!!! What? you dont take stock into these "world gonna end" theories? Hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!! Me neither.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
274. GeorgiaStormz
6:17 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
273. Tropicsweatherpr
6:16 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
EP, 96, 2012070218, , BEST, 0, 97N, 994W, 25, 1007, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14279
272. weatherh98
6:16 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting 7544:
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
... Why would you take time out of your day too look at that.

the only thing that has less low level circulation is the wave you are looking at.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
271. jeffs713
6:15 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not let us in on it now?

He needs time to make it up.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
270. nigel20
6:14 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Trop ATL vertical Shear

Gulf vertical shear

Carib vertical shear

BBL
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8053
269. VINNY04
6:13 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.
Why not let us in on it now?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
268. jeffs713
6:13 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
267. VINNY04
6:12 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting 7544:
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
Hope it comes. Even after Debbie we still need more rain in Florida.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
266. ScottLincoln
6:12 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting weatherbro:
Rogue waves are the thing to look for since they are also believed to reach upwards to 2,000 feet before breaking(and not all of them have been out at sea either)!

That seems a little unlikely. Even if one of those such waves were to occur, the chance would be astronomically smaller than the chance of a 100ft rogue wave, of which we have very few verifiable observations. Rogue waves in it of themselves are very rare, the higher you go the more rare it gets, as it requires more and more things to line up to attain such a height.
The Draupner Wave was estimated to be a 1/200,000 wave and it was just 84ft.

Quoting weatherbro:


megatsunami's I believe arn't technically tsunami's but ordinary beach waves.

What? According to what? Beach waves are predominantly caused by winds and tides. A megatsunami caused by a landslide is still a tsunami.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
265. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:10 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Twenty minutes to go...

Grab a Fresca and get ready...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
264. VINNY04
6:10 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Just to give everyone a heads up. There is a virus trying to go around and its disguised as Windows Security Alerts. it will say that your computer is being attacked when it isnt. then a website will come up from "protect online trojians" or something like that. just exit out of the Windows Security Alerts page and run a separate test on your anti-virus software. Just giving everyone a warning.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
263. 7544
6:09 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
262. weatherh98
6:09 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting jascott1967:
GOMEX is dry, not sure why the new found attention. The waters this time of year are always warm in the gulf.


true but apart from what debby did, the gulf is boiling.

i wouldnt say it too dry
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
261. jeffs713
6:08 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:



Yeah, but since the corporations have a permanent, multi-generational monopoly on all technology and patents, contrary to the Constitutional definition of patent laws, "Consumers" have no real freedom of choice.

If you want to modernize for your self or your employer or prospective employer, you have to keep up with the latest gadgets, but then the corporations have you anyway.

In many respects, the old two-way radios were better than modern phones, because you bought the damned thing one time, and then used it till it broke, and you didn't have to pay to use it every month.

I wish there was a way for consumers to FORCE computer networks to work like that, so that you could have a consumer owned and consumer operated network that didn't require paying middle men to use a product you already own...

You could always raise a few billion dollars to create a new network requiring upkeep, maintenance, and expansion, and do it yourself...

Some things are complex by their very nature, and need a larger economy of scale than what individual consumers can provide. (two-way radios have a couple of advantages, but innumerable disadvantages in a modern society, by the way)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
260. weathermanwannabe
6:06 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
PR has not gotten as much rain today as it really needed per the model guidance last week bringing that wave closer to the Greater Antilles. Maybe a better chance tomorrow per this am's NCEP Caribbean forecast:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
740 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: MID/UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST INTO PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IN THE MEAN TIME...TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD AS IT EXTENDS ALONG 69W AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI INTO HISPANIOLA...WHILE LEADING TO A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN PWAT TO 40-44MM.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY...PRODUCING MARINE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MASS ESTABLISHES/ARRIVES FROM THE EAST...WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AS A NEW WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO SUSTAIN HIGHER CHANCES FOR MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN.IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF MODEL SHOWS LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 5-50MM/DAY...YET THE HRWRF IS FORECASTING MAXIMA IN EXCESS OF 100MM/DAY. WE ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
259. jascott1967
6:06 PM GMT on July 02, 2012
GOMEX is dry, not sure why the new found attention. The waters this time of year are always warm in the gulf.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.