Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.
One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.
Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.
Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.
Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:
Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.
Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…
Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
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LLCC at 19.3N 120.0E Looks to be getting sheared?
I've always been a man of few words and even fewer initials.
Sure, I bet you hang on my every word.:)
To understand how this story got started, it's important to understand what Gore actually said, how his words have been maliciously misinterpreted, and what his actual contributions were as a politician.
What Gore Really Said
Here's what Gore actually said, during an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer:
"During my service in the United States Congress I took the initiative in creating the Internet. I took the initiative in moving forward a whole range of initiatives that have proven to be important to our country's economic growth and environmental protection, improvements in our educational system."
In context, it's obvious that Gore was only claiming to have moved the Internet forward at the governmental level, by offering support and resources to help it grow. Unless he was also claiming to have invented the environment and the economy!
In fact, what Gore really meant is so obvious that those who have attacked Gore over the years have felt the need to misquote him. "Al Gore says he invented the Internet" sure does sound ridiculous... except that he never said it.
What Gore Really Did
Is it true that Gore "took the initiative in creating the Internet?" Bob Kahn and Vint Cerf, who invented the TCP/IP protocol that is at the core of all Internet communication, certainly think so:
"As the two people who designed the basic architecture and the core protocols that make the Internet work, we would like to acknowledge VP Gore's contributions as a Congressman, Senator and as Vice President. No other elected official, to our knowledge, has made a greater contribution over a longer period of time."
Wow, we posted the same thing at the same time.
You're an entertaining guy Grothar. Glad you show up from time to time, even if you are now in the 'forgetful phase'.
(I could probably give you some pointers about how it plays out. If I can find my notes so that I can refresh my memory....)
LOL Thank You Guru
"The High Performance Computing Act of 1991 (HPCA) is an Act of Congress promulgated in the 102nd United States Congress as Pub.L. 102-194 on 1991-12-09. Often referred to as the Gore Bill,[1] it was created and introduced by then Senator Albert Gore, Jr., and led to the development of the National Information Infrastructure and the funding of the National Research and Education Network (NREN).[1][2][3]
The act built on prior U.S. efforts of developing a national networking infrastructure, starting with the ARPANET in the 1960s, and the funding of the National Science Foundation Network (NSFnet) in the 1980s. The renewed effort became known in popular language as building the Information Superhighway.[2][4] It also included the High-Performance Computing and Communications Initiative and spurred many significant technological developments, such as the Mosaic web browser,[5] and the creation of a high-speed fiber optic computer network."
In another interview (IIRC) Gore stated "I helped implement the internet" while talking about the legislation he sponsered.
Since you have a degree in Blobology, would you say this one looks a bit more promising than most others?
Maybe a mid-level low?
.A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARA...LFT AND AEX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
No, those are not blobettes. That is is normal result of daytime heating over land that is normal for the tropics this time of year. You will often seen clusters of these over much of the Caribbean in the summer. Nothing to worry about.
It has a slight SW movement right now.
It is also an old movie.... with a modern version...
You beat me to it again, KEEPER. You wake me up and then show me up. (") -)
We are getting heavy rain right now in Fort Lauderdale.
was that skinny red line like a tornado signature? wow that looked cool
SST's are very warm there. I haven't checked the shear,but these types of features form there regularly. The usually don't stay together well. I will watch it though.
I'm not sure. It could've been though.
No, sanskrit. This way I can't be banned.
:-)
I can't believe you would write such a thing!!
Thanks, but when I first came on I wasn't quite sure what blog I was on.
Scariest movie I ever saw. Of course, I was only about 10 at the time, so that might have made a difference.
OMG... Just realized... Yet another reason to worry about GW causing an Arctic meltdown... Do you remember how that movie ends?! ;)
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