Severe thunderstorms erupt along a swath 1,500 miles long, killing 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on July 27, 2012

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A huge outbreak of severe thunderstorms hit the nation on Thursday, causing damage in fifteen states and knocking out power to over 250,000 customers. Two people were killed, one by a falling tree in Pennsylvania, and one due to a lightning strike in New York. Two possible tornadoes touched down: one in Elmira, New York and another in Brookville, PA. The severe storms covered an unusually large area, erupting along a 1,500-mile long swath of the country from Texas to Connecticut. The intensity of the thunderstorms was increased by a very hot and moist airmass; temperatures in the mid to upper 90s were common across the region Thursday. A number of record highs for the date were set, including a 98° reading at Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport. The threat of severe weather continues for Friday afternoon over portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed these regions in their "Slight Risk" area for severe thunderstorms.


Figure 1. A rare sight: at 7 pm EDT on July 26, 2012, severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect for 132 counties in 15 states along a swath 1,500 miles long.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image taken at 7:02 pm EDT July 26, 2012, of the line of severe thunderstorms that extended from Texas to Connecticut. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 3. An imposing sight: A squall line of severe thunderstorms with two bowing segments takes aim at New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey on July 26, 2012. The tip of a bow echo typically has the most violent winds in a severe thunderstorm.

Was Thursday's outbreak a derecho?
Thursday's outbreak of severe thunderstorms was not nearly as violent as the June 29 - 30 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho, since the atmosphere wasn't as unstable. The June 29 storm was one of the most destructive and deadly severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history. It killed 22 people, knocked out power to at least 3.7 million customers, and did hundreds of millions in damage. There were 871 reports of damaging winds logged by the next day, and 36 of the thunderstorms had wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. In contrast, yesterday's event had only two thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 74 mph, and 383 reports of damaging winds. We can probably classify yesterday's severe thunderstorm event as a weak derecho, since it met the main criteria, as defined by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center: "A derecho is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 374 reports of damaging winds from Thursday's severe thunderstorms. Two of these thunderstorms had winds in excess of hurricane force (65 knots, or 74 mph.)


Figure 5. The climatology of derecho events over the U.S. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic. A strong tropical wave is expected to bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Tuesday, but none of the models are developing the wave. The NOGAPS computer model is suggesting development of a second tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands August 2 - 3.

Have a great Olympic weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Intense (jerseyshoretoo)
We had high winds and heavy rain, but fortunately not serious damage. Prayers for everyone in the path of this massive storm.
Intense
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island (ExitPupilCreative)
Lightning from storms that slammed the Northeast today. This is at Charlestown Beach in Charlestown, Rhode Island.
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island
BeforeTheStorm (CalicoBass)
at times there were gust of wind that would stir up the dirt as you can see to the right in this photo. We finally got a real good rain that lasted a while. Was under one Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
BeforeTheStorm
Swirling clouds (Crisred)
As the strom approaches the clouds are rolling over themselves and swirling into each other. Rapidly!
Swirling clouds
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx (JimTheWunder)
Taken just before thunderstorm.
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx

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3333. luigi18
1:48 PM GMT on August 06, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.


año no Ano!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
3331. Articuno
2:29 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
3330. Articuno
2:16 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
3329. luigi18
12:26 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.



I dont see a cane coming for now
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
3328. GeoffreyWPB
1:13 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
3327. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:04 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Rodney King RIP "Can't we all get along?"
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3326. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:03 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Is it poofing day?.....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3325. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:02 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Is there some sort of consensus among the models on the Atlantic waves?Im sorry I haven't looked at the models,been watching recorded Olympics coverage from my DVR.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3324. HurricaneHunterJoe
12:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Good Evening Everybody from America's Left Coast.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
3323. STXHurricanes2012
12:38 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof
useriously want a big season with el nino occuring it tere right u know so u cant poof ppl for it lol
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
3322. Skyepony (Mod)
12:29 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


That was my thought as well. Geography plays a big role in how SSTs affect surrounding continents. A positive AMO likely enhances rainfall in certain parts of Africa.

As for questioning the Sahel data, it's from the NCDC GHCN dataset, which is as good as it gets. Yes the data was likely sparse back in the day, and still isn't great, but it was pretty clear to the world that there was a bad multidecadal drought going on in Africa during the 1970s-1980s, and that it was wetter beforehand for a long period of time. That behavior implies some sort of a cycle, so I don't think the data quality is a big issue here.


The drought in Africa was caused by aerosol pollution coming from the United states before the anti-acid rain campaigns of the mid '80s. It's come to be understood that the aerosols had a cooling effect on the ocean, thus the ITCZ was weaker in the Northern Hemisphere & didn't travel as north as it does now. It's well documented. Here's not the best of sources, gives the basics, but look around there is papers & such on this subject.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
3321. 7544
12:27 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.


hi is this for the gfs fl storm or is the one gfs is showing for fl the 1009 low behind it tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
3320. hydrus
12:27 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting centex:
From stornw tonight - Sunday, July 29, 2012…7:45 P.M. EDT: I have to go in early to have some blood drawn…routine check up. I’ll be performing analysis upon my return. I am interested in the wave near 10.0N;30.0W. This wave, should it fight off dry air, may have the best chance thus far this season at development
Our first real Cape Verde storm is in the works.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22630
3319. BahaHurican
12:25 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
On a more serious note...


WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N71W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N56W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N66W IS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N64W TO 23N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE AXIS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OVER THE BASIN.

What are the chances we get another rainy weekend on the basis of interaction between that Twave coming int the Car basin and that ULL? I'm thinking similar to what we saw last weekend.

Also I am noticing this is the weakest the high / ridge has been for weeks... down to 1024 over the Azores as well... another sign of the times [they are a-changing]?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
3318. centex
12:25 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
From stornw tonight - Sunday, July 29, 2012…7:45 P.M. EDT: I have to go in early to have some blood drawn…routine check up. I’ll be performing analysis upon my return. I am interested in the wave near 10.0N;30.0W. This wave, should it fight off dry air, may have the best chance thus far this season at development
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
3317. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:24 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
look at the 18z GFS ensemble spread

216 hour


240 hour


288 Hour

Despite the fact that the actual GFS model takes it into the Caribbean, the ensemble mean shows it headed towards the NE Caribbean islands and eventually the SE Coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32824
3316. sunlinepr
12:23 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.


The Azores Bermuda high will be in command... will dictate the path that these CV systems will take....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3315. Hurricanes101
12:23 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ENSO2012:


Did you hear him? We'll not see ''MARCH'' come September, October, and November!

The guy doesn't even know where he's standing.

Just ignore him and move-in. Logically, his El Nino theories are HUGELY unfounded and unsupported.


you are asking mc to move in with you? Thought you were engaged.

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3314. SFLWeatherman
12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
18z GFS ensemble
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
3313. Tazmanian
12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ENSO2012:


Did you hear him? We'll not see ''MARCH'' come September, October, and November!

The guy doesn't even know where he's standing.

Just ignore him and move-in. Logically, his El Nino theories are HUGELY unfounded and unsupported.



you neeed too look back at the 2009 and 2006 hurricane season and look where they ended


2006 ended in SEP

why 2009 hurricane season endded in NOV even no we did not see a hole lot in SEP or OCT that year still got one more name storm on nov



am thinking if things play out this right with a weak or MOD EL Nino this season may likey end in SEP this like it did in 2006 or it we may not see marh in SEP or OCT like in 2009 and we may get one more storm in NOV


so you nevere no when it comes too EL nino not evere EL Nino will be the same and not evere season will be the same
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
3312. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3311. centex
12:20 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
What is more intersting is 48-72 hour forecast not the 200+ stuff.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
3310. islandgirls
12:20 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh Dear...

Did u guys get a lot of rain from Irene last year? I know the coc/eye passed to ur north...



Oh yes we did. That "Oh Dear" exclamation makes it sound as if we're in the Danger Zone. Don't mind though I enjoy this time of year. All I do is prepare for what is to be and check the information gleaned from this blog and give it to those who depend on me for updates on the weather. I am kinda like their source of information during the hurricane season. I tell them where I get my information and always have high praise for persons on this blog
Member Since: April 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
3309. sunlinepr
12:20 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3308. Hurricanes101
12:19 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof


LMAO, so childish, also Taz was not talking to you when he made his original statement. I'm moving on
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3307. mcluvincane
12:18 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes101:


because El Nino occurring and decreasing the number of storms this season makes you sad?

Its no secret that El Nino is coming, its just delayed; when it does occur is going to be a huge factor as to what kind of impact it has on the 2012 hurricane season. Tazs' theories on El Nino are not unfounded


Dont think anyone was talking to you, poof
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
3306. sunlinepr
12:17 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Interaction between both systems....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
3305. BahaHurican
12:17 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Why do I always get post 50, 99, etc???

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
3303. Hurricanes101
12:15 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof


because El Nino occurring and decreasing the number of storms this season makes you sad?

Its no secret that El Nino is coming, its just delayed; when it does occur is going to be a huge factor as to what kind of impact it has on the 2012 hurricane season. Tazs' theories on El Nino are not unfounded
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3301. Tazmanian
12:09 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof




poof right back
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
3300. JLPR2
12:09 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ENSO2012:


Keep on holding onto your disillusions. Puerto Rico si que no se escapara de una este ano. Bring on August, September, and October.


You know, reading it a second time you have a valid point there, 14years without a hurricane for an island in the middle of the tropics is awesome luck, sooner or later a hurricane will visit.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
3299. BahaHurican
12:09 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting etxwx:
Downpours continue to plague China
07-29-2012 21:26 BJT China has relocated some 40,000 residents in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, as the year's first flood peak hit the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

The flood crest, the highest in two decades, passed the two provinces in north and northwest China on Saturday.

Triggered by days of torrential rains, water levels rose quickly on the Yellow River's middle reaches. Flood waters have inundated low-lying lands as well as some water control and diversion projects, but caused no major economic losses or casualties. All residents threatened by flooding have been relocated and the two affected provinces have dispatched personnel to check river dykes and increase flood-control measures.

The China Central Meteorological Center will continue its rainstorm alerts for 10 provinces and regions in the next two days.


Downpours continue to plague Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces.

You know, I've understood for many years that flooding, especially riverine flooding, has been a feature of the Chinese disaster-related story. I'm just now making a link to TC activity and that flooding... think about the fact that Vicente carried tropical moisture well inland up the river system that enters the Pacific at the Pearl River estuary... then multiply the effect of two or three different TCs moving inland over some of the other large rivers... and didn't I read last week that the flooding in the Beijing area was due indirectly to Vicente?

Things that make u go "hmmm"....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
3298. Civicane49
12:06 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
3297. mcluvincane
12:06 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
in EL nino years we may not marh of any thing come SEP OCT and NOV look at 2006 and 2009 and you see what i mean even no that idea was a nov storm but you wont be seeing that all the time in EL nino years



Tired of hearing your el nino theories, poof
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
3296. Tropicsweatherpr
12:05 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
3295. Chicklit
12:05 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
"surface low" the models appear to be grabbing on to isn't getting much mention at the 8 p.m. Discussion....ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N32W TO 8N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

Off to check out the latest dramas of Olympic proportion.
Lots of interesting discussion/graphics today.
Thanks to you all.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
3292. Hurricanes101
12:04 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they could play it this afternoon...
there will be a WR shown now that most people know already happened.


Most wouldnt know if people would go onto public blogs and blurt it out

has happened to me several times

plus the reason its all tape delayed is so they can show everything

the stuff that happens in the early morning in England would be on at 1am if it were shown live in the US and most people would not watch it because they are sleeping. That is why everything is pushed back, it actually makes sense what they are doing...if they showed everything live, then we would miss out on some things
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3291. CybrTeddy
12:04 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
The 18z GFS was surprisingly similar in track to Hurricane Ernesto in 2006, interesting as this would also be named Ernesto.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
3290. JLPR2
12:01 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.


Seems like it, as Keeper said, everything is falling into place and with the MJO moving into our area soon, something is bound to happen.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
3289. etxwx
12:00 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Downpours continue to plague China
07-29-2012 21:26 BJT China has relocated some 40,000 residents in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, as the year's first flood peak hit the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

The flood crest, the highest in two decades, passed the two provinces in north and northwest China on Saturday.

Triggered by days of torrential rains, water levels rose quickly on the Yellow River's middle reaches. Flood waters have inundated low-lying lands as well as some water control and diversion projects, but caused no major economic losses or casualties. All residents threatened by flooding have been relocated and the two affected provinces have dispatched personnel to check river dykes and increase flood-control measures.

The China Central Meteorological Center will continue its rainstorm alerts for 10 provinces and regions in the next two days.


Downpours continue to plague Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces.

Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1528
3288. JLPR2
11:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Unfortunately I am not holding out hope for our area. The way that high seems to be sitting, and sitting, and SITting, anything that misses you guys is still pretty likely to give us a hit, a brush, or at the least a scare. [And another Georges or David is not what the N Caribbean needs.] I agree with your earlier post; best situation for us is early onset of el nino conditions. However, I don't expect to see serious effects before end of Sept....



You are right there, until El Niño matures we are sitting ducks. But I'll keep my positive attitude. :D

I do hope no Andrew like hurricane forms, Andrew demonstrated that an el Niño year can also be a devastating one.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
3287. Tropicsweatherpr
11:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
JLPR2, you agree that the lid is about to go away very soon? I am somewhat worried about the strong high pressure in terms of the tracks that could send to the NE Caribbean some threats.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
3286. centex
11:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
I think we are due a new tropical tidbit with area of interest developing in next 48 hours.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
3285. GeorgiaStormz
11:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why is it a fail?

Its not a secret due to the near 6 hour time difference between the US and London that most events are not actually live


they could play it this afternoon, not evening...
there will be a WR shown now that most people know already happened.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
3284. popartpete
11:56 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things are coming together hold on we could be in for a wicked ride
For some reason, I agree. Too many things seem to be coming together at the same time.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
3283. BahaHurican
11:54 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Quoting islandgirls:


Can't agree with you more
The one place in the E Car that reminds me of home, at least geographically...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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