Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma
Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.
Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.
Jeff Masters
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WHY are you showing something from 2006??
Note how much later in the season it was. By the end of August frontal systems can cross the country and extend that far south ibto the GOM. Right now the furthest south they getting seems to be about I-40.
According to NHC, td5 may be downgraded to a weak low, and will not make it anywhere near your 55mph, maybe not even to the Islands. Nice chart though.
trying to figure out wth kind of trough pulls a storm outta the Carribbean north in August
ST. LOUIS — Nearly 220 counties in a dozen drought-stricken states were added Wednesday to the U.S. government's list of natural disaster areas as the nation's agriculture chief unveiled new help for frustrated, cash-strapped farmers and ranchers grappling with extreme dryness and heat.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's addition of the 218 counties means that more than half of all U.S. counties – 1,584 in 32 states – have been designated primary disaster areas this growing season, the vast majority of them mired in a drought that's considered the worst in decades.
Counties in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming were included in Wednesday's announcement. The USDA uses the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor to help decide which counties to deem disaster areas, which makes farmers and ranchers eligible for federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans.
To help ease the burden on the nation's farms, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Thursday opened up 3.8 million acres of conservation land for ranchers to use for haying and grazing. Under that conservation program, farmers have been paid to take land out of production to ward against erosion and create wildlife habitat.
"The assistance announced today will help U.S. livestock producers dealing with climbing feed prices, critical shortages of hay and deteriorating pasturelands," Vilsack said.
Vilsack also said crop insurers have agreed to provide farmers facing cash-flow issues a penalty-free, 30-day grace period on premiums in 2012.
As of this week, nearly half of the nation's corn crop was rated poor to very poor, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. About 37 percent of the U.S. soybeans were lumped into that category, while nearly three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage is in drought-affected areas, the survey showed.
The potential financial fallout in the nation's midsection appears to be intensifying. The latest weekly Mid-America Business Conditions Index, released Wednesday, showed that the ongoing drought and global economic turmoil is hurting business in nine Midwest and Plains states, boosting worries about the prospect of another recession, according to the report.
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the index, said the drought will hurt farm income while the strengthening dollar hinders exports, meaning two of the most important positive factors in the region's economy are being undermined.
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
06Z 384 hr run doesn't have anything close to even a TS near Carolina coast - unless you mean one of the many ensembles!?
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